GaWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 exactly. the models were bullish on the extreme warmup and they took that away too. Its safest to wait until all models get into the camp and its within 7 to 10 days probably , similar to how the blocking in n. Alaska/Siberia turned out. Wait and see. There's still time for a good 4 to 6 week stretch. Especially if the shoe drops completely and we reverse the whole pattern, keeping +PNA -NAO, -AO. We'd probably have atleast one good winter storm in that setup with several close calls. Who knows yet though. You can definitely put me in the cautiously hopeful camp for early to mid Feb. based partially on yesterday's Euro weeklies. The obvious negative is the low confidence in a pattern being shown all the way out in week #4. However, IF that week 4 map were to come close to verifying, I'd expect a rockin' SE US early and/or mid Feb. at least coldwise with probably at least one winter storm threat. Regarding the general pattern, I couldn't draw an all that much better looking 500 mb map than that one for the SE US with its strong -NAO/Canadian blocking, -AO, +PNA (note the warm western U.S. and that the cold Alaskan low has retrograted to then be centered over the Aleutians and north Pacific, which is consistent with a +PNA), and a cold Europe and E Asia. This is easily the best looking Euro weekly long range map this entire winter for the SE US (I'm not addressing other areas of the US). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 You can definitely put me in the cautiously hopeful camp for early to mid Feb. based partially on yesterday's Euro weeklies. The obvious negative is the low confidence in a pattern being shown all the way out in week #4. However, IF that week 4 map were to come close to verifying, I'd expect a rockin' SE US early and/or mid Feb. at least coldwise with probably at least one winter storm threat. Regarding the general pattern, I couldn't draw an all that much better looking 500 mb map than that one for the SE US with its strong -NAO/Canadian blocking, -AO, +PNA (note the warm western U.S. and that the cold Alaskan low has retrograted to then be centered over the Aleutians and north Pacific, which is consistent with a +PNA), and a cold Europe and E Asia. This is easily the best looking Euro weekly long range map this entire winter for the SE US (I'm not addressing other areas of the US). I agree 100%. From what I can gather the weeklies have been pretty good overall with pattern recognition. Though not sure if they caught on to the cool down we had last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The warm up next week may be just the ticket we need to shake up the stuck pattern that we are currently in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The warm up next week may be just the ticket we need to shake up the stuck pattern that we are currently in. It better get pretty warm then, in the 70's. Otherwise it's not different than what we have seen off and on all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Big time cold at the end of the 12z GFS run today at 384 a cold front is sweeping through with almost all of the US freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Big time cold at the end of the 12z GFS run today at 384 a cold front is sweeping through with almost all of the US freezing. Finally, something we can bank on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The GFS Ens really starts to weaken the AK vortex at day 10 and the blocking looks good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The GFS Ens really starts to weaken the AK vortex at day 10 and the blocking looks good too. Yeah, looks pretty good. Been a long time since we've seen this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yeah, looks pretty good. Been a long time since we've seen this... You really start seeing the AK vortex start to weaken before day 10, which is good we are not waiting until day 15 to see changes.... Hour 180 (really strong AK vortex) Hour 240 (much weaker) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Boy, that's a pretty cold overall look. Haven't skimmed through the animations yet though. Yeah, looks pretty good. Been a long time since we've seen this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I've seen this movie before. Not buying it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 through 10 days, nothing that good on ecmwf yet. I think its about after this time frame the GFS keys on, but we'll see. The Alaskan vortex is still there. This model is changing strongly day by day though with details. LIke previous runs that had a deep central US cutoff. Now its gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 W through 10 days, nothing that good on ecmwf yet. I think its about after this time frame the GFS keys on, but we'll see. The Alaskan vortex is still there. This model is changing strongly day by day though with details. LIke previous runs that had a deep central US cutoff. Now its gone. Thanks Robert and Matthew! Hopefully we will see some evidence from "Dr. NO" late tonight on the block breaking down in AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Boy, that's a pretty cold overall look. Haven't skimmed through the animations yet though. Thank's Matt for posting the maps.That is quite encouraging for sure.We're praying for this to happen along with a good snowstorm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Forgive me for the stupid question but if we were to have a large dump of cold air into the lower 48 would it not suppress the storm track?- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Forgive me for the stupid question but if we were to have a large dump of cold air into the lower 48 would it not suppress the storm track?- Not necessarily, in order to keep the storm track suppressed you usually have to have some type of blocking. Usually from a -NAO (greenland blocking) I have seen storms cut right through an arctic airmass without the blocking in place to hold the cold air in. An example is a storm (while living in Nashville) growing up where the temps were around 0 to 5 below the night before and it warmed up to just above freezing less than 24 hours later and became a minimal ice event followed by buckets of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 FWIW - DT doesn't buy the blocking being shown on the GFS. (can't say i blame him) He says that as long as you have the Alaskan vortex, you will NEVER get a -NAO to sustain itself. I guess he isn't buying that vortex weakening on the GFS. Will be interesting to see if the GFS moves it closer and the EURO to latch on once inside 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 FWIW - DT doesn't buy the blocking being shown on the GFS. (can't say i blame him) He says that as long as you have the Alaskan vortex, you will NEVER get a -NAO to sustain itself. I guess he isn't buying that vortex weakening on the GFS. Will be interesting to see if the GFS moves it closer and the EURO to latch on once inside 10 days. Of course he's not. Wouldn't want to chance being right. Not saying he is wrong....but he speaks in so many absolutes and gets so much pie on his face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Not sure whether I buy the blocking or not or even if that translates to cold in the SE. But I'm hanging my hopes on it and it seems like a great place to hang your hat if your looking for positives out of this pattern we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 His argument is sound, but only if the vortex remains strong. Speaking in absolutes will almost always get you in trouble at some point. Time will tell if the pattern change idea holds water. We will know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 FWIW - DT doesn't buy the blocking being shown on the GFS. (can't say i blame him) He says that as long as you have the Alaskan vortex, you will NEVER get a -NAO to sustain itself. I guess he isn't buying that vortex weakening on the GFS. Will be interesting to see if the GFS moves it closer and the EURO to latch on once inside 10 days. Agree with him on the -NAO if the vortex doesn't move. But the GFS ENS has had it several runs now and the Euro weeklies have it too in week 3 and 4. But, until this get's inside 6-7 days I am not going to be optimistic. So we have a good 10 days until that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Not impressed with the 12Z Euro ensembles. Signs of a high height anomaly in the Greenland vcty late in the run but it is quite weak, and the GOA vortex is still present. Just looks like more cooler weather, no real cold blast or big-time blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Not impressed with the 12Z Euro ensembles. Signs of a high height anomaly in the Greenland vcty late in the run but it is quite weak, and the GOA vortex is still present. Just looks like more cooler weather, no real cold blast or big-time blocking. Thanks for the post cheez. If I am thinking correctly though, the blocking doesn't really strenghten until days 12-14 on the GFS. I would think blocking showing up late in the Euro ensembles could be a very good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Thanks for the post cheez. If I am thinking correctly though, the blocking doesn't really strenghten until days 12-14 on the GFS. I would think blocking showing up late in the Euro ensembles could be a very good sign. Maybe, but if you extrapolate there is no sign of the heights building further....for once I agree with DT- we really need to get rid of the GOA vortex- it looks to be still entrenched even at day 16 with almost all members showing low heights in that area. I think that we stay snow/ice free through Jan and maybe into the first week of Feb. After that I have no opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Maybe, but if you extrapolate there is no sign of the heights building further....for once I agree with DT- we really need to get rid of the GOA vortex- it looks to be still entrenched even at day 16 with almost all members showing low heights in that area. I think that we stay snow/ice free through Jan and maybe into the first week of Feb. After that I have no opinion. So you have Euro Ens through day 16? They differ from the weeklies from what your describing. Edit - Nevermind, pointless discussing a 10+ day ensemble runs, thanks for the update though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 So you have Euro Ens through day 16? They differ from the weeklies from what your describing. Edit - Nevermind, pointless discussing a 10+ day ensemble runs, thanks for the update though! He said day 16, that's a pretty good sign he's talking about the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 He said day 16, that's a pretty good sign he's talking about the GFS. No, I have access to the Euro ensembles to day 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 No, I have access to the Euro ensembles to day 16 oh wow, that's interesting, I was not even aware they went out that far. Is that a paid service through WSI? I'm sorry for assuming it was the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Maybe, but if you extrapolate there is no sign of the heights building further....for once I agree with DT- we really need to get rid of the GOA vortex- it looks to be still entrenched even at day 16 with almost all members showing low heights in that area. I think that we stay snow/ice free through Jan and maybe into the first week of Feb. After that I have no opinion. Yes we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Alaska will just be a huge iceberg after this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.