andyhb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Or about the mountains of snow we're getting here in the Pacific NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Or about the mountains of snow we're getting here in the Pacific NW I will take a week up at Baker! Tonight: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around -10. Windy, with a west southwest wind 34 to 37 mph decreasing to between 23 and 26 mph. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow showers. Temperature falling to around -13 by 9am. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 21 and 26 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to near -14 by 9pm, then rising to around -10 during the remainder of the night. West southwest wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 12. Northeast wind between 8 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow. Low around 12. North northwest wind at 6 mph becoming southwest. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 32 to 38 inches possible. Thursday: Snow. High near 12. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible. Thursday Night: Snow. Low around 2. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible. Friday: Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 16. Friday Night: Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 4. Saturday: Snow. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 8. Saturday Night: Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 2. Sunday: Snow. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 6. Sunday Night: Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 4. Monday: Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 We haven't had one of these big snowfalls in awhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yeah that's what I posted, OP/ENS for both NAO and AO...not sure if you could tell, probably should've labeled them in my post. Ah, my bad, on my phone and didn't look carefully. As you pointed out, pretty big difference, glad the ensemble is on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Folks, Hot off the press *fwiw*. Sure enough, the brand new Euro weeklies are again going with the trend of -NAO in the first half of Feb. They actually suggest a very strong 500 mb warm anomaly centered from S. Greenland into NE Canada and much of N. Canada. The SE US actually has slightly BELOW (yes, you read that correctly) anomalies and the coldest anomalies in just about all of N. America outside of Alaska! eeping hope that this entire winter will not be in the commode but still accepting whatever happens That is interesting because i got this from pro met in the KPHL area earlier... Latest Weeklies that came out today for KPHL proper show the next 4 week departures as follows: Looks like +5, +9, +3, +4 for PHL in order ..This is according to pro met Adam...from the KPHL region..." Week 3 was 0 on Thursday. It's trending warmer. " Trying to figure out the differences in interpretation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yeah, I'd rely on the Euro more at this point since it has been more consistent, although even it is rather impressive. This is like the 8th run in a row the GFS ensembles have the NAO tanking. The ensembles are more consistent IMO on these LR indicies forecasting. Have to wait about 2-3 more days and see if the GFS ensembles hold serve & the Euro ensembles come on board. It's encouraging the see the euro weeklies line up with the GFS ensembles as Jan flips to Feb. Nothing is a gurantee so I have my excitement tempered. Man I'd love to get one big time hit as winter fades out. It would make up for it's absence the first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 This is like the 8th run in a row the GFS ensembles have the NAO tanking. The ensembles are more consistent IMO on these LR indicies forecasting. Have to wait about 2-3 more days and see if the GFS ensembles hold serve & the Euro ensembles come on board. It's encouraging the see the euro weeklies line up with the GFS ensembles as Jan flips to Feb. Nothing is a gurantee so I have my excitement tempered. Man I'd love to get one big time hit as winter fades out. It would make up for it's absence the first half. I'm talking about the severe threat, not the NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 well the run still keeps the Gulf of Alaska vortex extremely strong, probably record depth which is no suprise. But it has taken away the extreme warm look since so many troughs are timed to move across the country. We'll still be above normal after Saturday for the most part, but it will be hard to get widespread warmth since clouds and precip will be around so often. It still cuts off a system late in the middle of the country, and has a huge 1052 high above the Lakes which dams down at the surface, but the heights are very high in the Southeast, so that doesn't look good for cold at the surface. However if the high were to sneak in under the best confluence which may develop over the eastern Part of Canada as a ridge is building in central Canada, it could end up being a much stronger, colder low level damming, but its too far out to even get hopeful about. The models are still changing so much its hardly worth looking at anything except the location of that Alaskan Vortex , until it gets moved its hard to get to hopeful anytime soon. The other thing to watch on both models could be a developing ridge that cuts off somewhere in central or eastern Canada around day 10 or after. The gift that keeps on giving That is the only thing that has been consistent this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 That is interesting because i got this from pro met in the KPHL area earlier... Latest Weeklies that came out today for KPHL proper show the next 4 week departures as follows: Looks like +5, +9, +3, +4 for PHL in order ..This is according to pro met Adam...from the KPHL region..." Week 3 was 0 on Thursday. It's trending warmer. " Trying to figure out the differences in interpretation.. Hmmm...I wonder if those are 850 or 2T temp departures? GaWX just commented on the 5H setup, so I guess they are probably both right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Hmmm...I wonder if those are 850 or 2T temp departures? GaWX just commented on the 5H setup, so I guess they are probably both right. Well i think those are probably in relation to surface departures or 2 meter temp departures but the reason i am asking about the above from Larry is because one would think that if blocking was showing up we would not be looking at positive departures..So I am a bit confused you could say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Hmmm...I wonder if those are 850 or 2T temp departures? GaWX just commented on the 5H setup, so I guess they are probably both right. The answer is a combo of two things: 1) What you said above. I'm talking 500 mb heights and not 2m or 850 temp.'s. Aside: Keep in mind that the Euro has somewhat of a warm bias in general. 2) I'm talking SE US vs. Philadelphia, where anomalies are showing as a good bit warmer. As I said, the SE US is the coldest anomalywise in the entire country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The answer is a combo of two things: 1) What you said above. I'm talking 500 mb heights and not 2m or 850 temp.'s. Aside: Keep in mind that the Euro has somewhat of a warm bias in general. 2) I'm talking SE US vs. Philadelphia, where anomalies are showing as a good bit warmer. As I said, the SE US is the coldest anomalywise in the entire country. Thank you. I realized that Larry just i was told one thing by Adam in reference to the KPHL region and then i saw what you posted and someone posted this as "proof " to the pattern was changing from warm in the north to colder and snowier at another site and another pro met told me what Adam said was "incorrect" so I got confused...when I read what you said closer thru week three it told me that Adam was correct cause you said that the SE was the coldest (outside alaska) Again thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Thanks for the helpful info Larry! (GaWx) This is great learning and provides a great resource for what we may (hopefully) be dealing with in the mid term. Thanks for all your contributions/chronological data! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Thank you. I realized that Larry just i was told one thing by Adam in reference to the KPHL region and then i saw what you posted and someone posted this as "proof " to the pattern was changing from warm in the north to colder and snowier at another site and another pro met told me what Adam said was "incorrect" so I got confused...when I read what you said closer thru week three it told me that Adam was correct cause you said that the SE was the coldest (outside alaska) Again thank you! You're welcome. Also, consider that a warm western US (+PNA?), Canada, and Greenland (blocking) as well as cold Europe, Aleutians, and E Asia can all easily teleconnect with a cold E US in general and moreso a cold SE US anomalywise. Edit: You're welcome rankin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 the GFS is showing a strong looking outbreak of severe in about a week. Too early to know for sure but the synoptics argue for it in the lower Miss. Valley towarg MidSouth/Tenn Valley by 180. A strongly tilting neg. tilt deep trough with strong vort that swings in and generates almost extreme diffluent flow right over an open gulf inflow and warm air/cold clash. If it were March, it would be a no-brainer. And considering we've had severe /tors. in less of a setup, its something to watch on the modeling this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 the GFS is showing a strong looking outbreak of severe in about a week. Too early to know for sure but the synoptics argue for it in the lower Miss. Valley towarg MidSouth/Tenn Valley by 180. A strongly tilting neg. tilt deep trough with strong vort that swings in and generates almost extreme diffluent flow right over an open gulf inflow and warm air/cold clash. If it were March, it would be a no-brainer. And considering we've had severe /tors. in less of a setup, its something to watch on the modeling this week. So the 00z GFS continues the trend? If it has instability/moisture (which the 18z run had), then this sounds nasty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billypg Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Im with you bro, 88 (we had 16") pretty much sucked except for the storm of the century in the upstate. I said at the beginning of winter id trade in 3 small snows for 1 big one over 8" and still stand by it. Oconeeman, I live in NE GVL County and I really don't remember what happened prior to that storm of 88 except that Charlie Gertz said it would LOL 2 weeks in advanced he called it. I do remember more than 2 feet of snow imby. I am 6'2 and had snow drifts over my head. The temp dropped to 15 and stayed that way throughout the storm. I was a senior in HS and we didn't go back to school for 3 weeks and when we did there was still snow not only on the ground but covering the road. That was by far the best storm of my life. I have to say one other thing about some of the negative posters on this board. I have lived in the mountains of Greenville County in SC all of my life. I am 41 years old, and I never ever remember a winter without winter weather here. Robert it is my pleasure reading your well informed posts. I live about 45 mins to an hour from you my friend and love your insight. TC & GL to everyone. The question in my mind isn't if we will get winter weather but when and how much ????? Here is to the big one in 2012 !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 So the 00z GFS continues the trend? If it has instability/moisture (which the 18z run had), then this sounds nasty... Tds still impressive with 60's nosing northward into the southern Ohio Valley. Wind profiles still quite impressive as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Oconeeman, I live in NE GVL County and I really don't remember what happened prior to that storm of 88 except that Charlie Gertz said it would LOL 2 weeks in advanced he called it. I do remember more than 2 feet of snow imby. I am 6'2 and had snow drifts over my head. The temp dropped to 15 and stayed that way throughout the storm. I was a senior in HS and we didn't go back to school for 3 weeks and when we did there was still snow not only on the ground but covering the road. That was by far the best storm of my life. I have to say one other thing about some of the negative posters on this board. I have lived in the mountains of Greenville County in SC all of my life. I am 41 years old, and I never ever remember a winter without winter weather here. Robert it is my pleasure reading your well informed posts. I live about 45 mins to an hour from you my friend and love your insight. TC & GL to everyone. The question in my mind isn't if we will get winter weather but when and how much ????? Here is to the big one in 2012 !!!!! There have been some high snow totals out of Caesars Head, SC over the years...which must be close to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Was gfs 0z ugly in lr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Well, there is some rain for me, which isn't ugly. Then a nice gulf low that unfortunately comes north into Ga. instead of moving through Fla. Should the high up north get stronger and the low track though Fla. then there's a chance But, it will all be different tomorrow. Until I see the 0 line down around Miami, I won't feel the GFS has gotten well yet, lol. I mean Goofy always has at least one long range cold blast down to Lauderdale. None so far this year, that I can remember. Every cold shot is a side swipe, not a full on assult. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Was gfs 0z ugly in lr? Compared to what we've been seeing, not really. I mean, for snow there's really nothing showing that solution but there's some systems to watch at 180hr (for a severe threat), 252hr, 312hr, and one at the end of the run. It's a lot like the 18z. Looks like a pretty active period, just have to keep watching the models and hope for something to give otherwise a lot of us will be getting soaked going into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 ... Every cold shot is a side swipe, T You mean a slap in the face! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Dacula, I am assuming you are talking about a stratospheric warming event? If not, I have no idea what this graph shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yes. These are the temperatures at 30hPa, roughly mid way up in the stratosphere. Not only that, the EP flux is starting to point toward the north, at least in the lower levels of the stratosphere. A VERY good sign. These signs and models beginning to show -NAO/-AO, blocking beginning to make it's presence known... all the little signs that we're undergoing a change. Everyone needs to hold on to the cliff just a little longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 If these changes come to fruition, it could make for a fun February. Still a lot of winter left. Hopefully we see the changes take hold the first of Feb as opposed to the middle of Feb. It can't stay warm forever, but a cold latter March, April, and May would really suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 looks like February will be starting off with a new pattern. With troughing in the middle and eastern US, ridging out west. The Alaskan vortex is still there, but both models show it weakening and atleast have some ridging out west +PNA, and hinting at some greenland ridging. They get there through different means, and its still early to be too hopeful on this, but we're about due for atleast a little bit of Winter. By Feb. it will make 3 to 4 straight months of well above normal temps, pretty much the whole contiguous US esp. the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 We've seen this before but hopfully the below works out this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 We've seen this before but hopfully the below works out this time. exactly. the models were bullish on the extreme warmup and they took that away too. Its safest to wait until all models get into the camp and its within 7 to 10 days probably , similar to how the blocking in n. Alaska/Siberia turned out. Wait and see. There's still time for a good 4 to 6 week stretch. Especially if the shoe drops completely and we reverse the whole pattern, keeping +PNA -NAO, -AO. We'd probably have atleast one good winter storm in that setup with several close calls. Who knows yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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