Jon Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Yes, the +PNA has been there on the past couple of run in the LR, today was the first day I noticed a hint of a -NAO at the end of the run, although would like a met to confirm. The AO still looks positive but the AK vortex is starting to weaken and get shunted east. Granted it's 300+ hours out but I guess it's good that it's showing changes. I am not buying in until the Euro agrees. Why does a met need to confirm? Is there something wrong with the info on Allan's new Model Predicted Teleconnection Indices page that I don't know about? lol The ensembles are agreeing with -NAO +PNA even considering it's 300+ hours out...Ensembles do not agree on the AO, in fact it's negative well through the run for all 3 GFS runs today so far while the OP runs mostly advertise a +AO...just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 HAH! I didn't know the teleconnections had updated, I was going off the 5h maps, but that is good news, especially about the ensembles showing the -AO. Why does a met need to confirm? Is there something wrong with the info on Allan's new Model Predicted Teleconnection Indices page that I don't know about? lol The ensembles are agreeing with -NAO +PNA even considering it's 300+ hours out...Ensembles do not agree on the AO, in fact it's negative well through the run for all 3 GFS runs today so far while the OP runs mostly advertise a +AO...just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Yes, the +PNA has been there on the past couple of run in the LR, today was the first day I noticed a hint of a -NAO at the end of the run, although would like a met to confirm. The AO still looks positive but the AK vortex is starting to weaken and get shunted east. Granted it's 300+ hours out but I guess it's good that it's showing changes. I am not buying in until the Euro agrees. IIRC the Euro weeklies last week were hinting at a -NAO...if it shows up again on Thursday we'll know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 I want to clarify that even in late January (but mostly Feb), I have seen temps one day in the upper 60's to EVEN low to mid 70's and the next day we had snow on the ground. I am sticking with Robert's (Foothills) thoughts on one or two significant events before winter is over. I have looked back at some years and found that we have our biggest snows (of the one storm variety) when the winter pattern overall has sucked. In the colder winters it seems to be more "nickel and dime" winter weather. I guess my point is that we stilll have plenty of winter left and things can change, even in 12 hours time, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 At 204 on the euro strong low in Texas, 1048 high over the lakes, with blocking this would be a huge winterstorm, maybe in Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I want to clarify that even in late January (but mostly Feb), I have seen temps one day in the upper 60's to EVEN low to mid 70's and the next day we had snow on the ground. I am sticking with Robert's (Foothills) thoughts on one or two significant events before winter is over. I have looked back at some years and found that we have our biggest snows (of the one storm variety) when the winter pattern overall has sucked. In the colder winters it seems to be more "nickel and dime" winter weather. I guess my point is that we stilll have plenty of winter left and things can change, even in 12 hours time, etc. I smell what your cooking. Last year was a very cold winter with a lot of great potential. We had three good snows here, but not one huge storm. I don't recall the winter of 99 int 2000 being that cold and stormy overall, but we did get a couple of good snows in January that winer, and of course one of those was the Carolina Crusher. Maybe winter is just getting a late start and we'll have something in February for a change. It's been a while since we've had a good February snow storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I want to clarify that even in late January (but mostly Feb), I have seen temps one day in the upper 60's to EVEN low to mid 70's and the next day we had snow on the ground. I am sticking with Robert's (Foothills) thoughts on one or two significant events before winter is over. I have looked back at some years and found that we have our biggest snows (of the one storm variety) when the winter pattern overall has sucked. In the colder winters it seems to be more "nickel and dime" winter weather. I guess my point is that we stilll have plenty of winter left and things can change, even in 12 hours time, etc. I am right there with you while I'm a little younger I've always noticed our best snow storms seem to come with extreme temp changes where you have 25 and snowy then 55 and sunny just a day or two later. Either way in the LR it looks like GFS and Euro are not as extreme with the blowtorch idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 well the run still keeps the Gulf of Alaska vortex extremely strong, probably record depth which is no suprise. But it has taken away the extreme warm look since so many troughs are timed to move across the country. We'll still be above normal after Saturday for the most part, but it will be hard to get widespread warmth since clouds and precip will be around so often. It still cuts off a system late in the middle of the country, and has a huge 1052 high above the Lakes which dams down at the surface, but the heights are very high in the Southeast, so that doesn't look good for cold at the surface. However if the high were to sneak in under the best confluence which may develop over the eastern Part of Canada as a ridge is building in central Canada, it could end up being a much stronger, colder low level damming, but its too far out to even get hopeful about. The models are still changing so much its hardly worth looking at anything except the location of that Alaskan Vortex , until it gets moved its hard to get to hopeful anytime soon. The other thing to watch on both models could be a developing ridge that cuts off somewhere in central or eastern Canada around day 10 or after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 To be clear the Euro looks awful - pure and simple beginning to end. Though, neither the GFS nor the Euro have been stellar in my opinion. However, the day 8-10 look looks much more reasonable as a solution than what it has been showing the past few days on the model. The pools of cold and warm air around the northern hemisphere look much more "symmetrical." There is a trough in the eastern Pacific and one in the western Atlantic. What doesn' make us much sense(though it has happened before) is almost full continental ridge over North America where the Artic boundary is pressing well northward. I supsect that will not hold for any duration as its winter and climo says it should be cold in Canada. To me that set-up might lead(extrapolated a week or two) a western PNA ridge(eastern Pacific trough) and a potential -NAO(east or west? I have no idea). To me the La Nina seems to be weakening when looking at the animated SSTs on the CPC site. Though that could be a false reading since cold water is still below the surface between 50-150 meters. La Nina, according to CPC, should persist though spring, but it sure looks like a neutral or weak Nino may appear by fall this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 well, I will be happy for the few who are experiencing winter. Congrats Seattle on the Winter Storm Watch.... SNAP...I was just about to mention this myself! Good catch. If you look at the link that I have attached, you will see how the temperatures are not that cold, but even funnier it shows a warm up close to 50 deg by the end of the storm. Reminds me of our kind of weather. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Seattle&state=WA&site=SEW&textField1=47.6218&textField2=-122.35&e=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 well, I will be happy for the few who are experiencing winter. Congrats Seattle on the Winter Storm Watch.... Wow. Some of the snow totals will be amazing on the Olympic Peninsula. Check out Olympic National Park!! http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text On the "high side", 107 inches by Thursday..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I want to clarify that even in late January (but mostly Feb), I have seen temps one day in the upper 60's to EVEN low to mid 70's and the next day we had snow on the ground. I am sticking with Robert's (Foothills) thoughts on one or two significant events before winter is over. I have looked back at some years and found that we have our biggest snows (of the one storm variety) when the winter pattern overall has sucked. In the colder winters it seems to be more "nickel and dime" winter weather. I guess my point is that we stilll have plenty of winter left and things can change, even in 12 hours time, etc. I can't remember what year I think maybe 1999 but we were sodding a yard and it was 55-60 and next day there was 8 inches on ground then on Feb 26-27, 2004 it snowed 7-10 inches on a friday and come monday you couldn't find a pile where it melted so fast. We plowed as fast as we could as it was melting up under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 We'll just have to wait with baited breath if the models are leading us on a goose chase or not. Both have a significant change showing up as we approach day 10 and esp. through day 15, so about 2 weeks. They have heights rising strongly either in Greenland or central to east Canada, and that hasn't happened yet. This would possibly lead to neg. NAO (remember that blocking usually leads to neg. NAO patterns eventually historically). This would mean colder at the corners, from Alaska and again in the Southeast, relative to normals. The other corners are warm, the Southwest and northeast parts of the continent. That usually coincides with how the heights are being shown, but since its so far out, and both models have given false signals a couple of times this season, its no lock at all. Just something to watch in future runs. Getting blocking in eastern Canada or Greenland would atleast turn us colder, close to normal, even when most of Canada is above their normals (similar to Larry's mention earlier). Some ensembles and op. runs from 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 We'll just have to wait with baited breath if the models are leading us on a goose chase or not. Both have a significant change showing up as we approach day 10 and esp. through day 15, so about 2 weeks. They have heights rising strongly either in Greenland or central to east Canada, and that hasn't happened yet. This would possibly lead to neg. NAO (remember that blocking usually leads to neg. NAO patterns eventually historically). This would mean colder at the corners, from Alaska and again in the Southeast, relative to normals. The other corners are warm, the Southwest and northeast parts of the continent. That usually coincides with how the heights are being shown, but since its so far out, and both models have given false signals a couple of times this season, its no lock at all. Just something to watch in future runs. Getting blocking in eastern Canada or Greenland would atleast turn us colder, close to normal, even when most of Canada is above their normals (similar to Larry's mention earlier). Some ensembles and op. runs from 12z: Robert, It will be interesting to see if this evening's Euro weeklies concur. The most recent ones suggested a pretty strong -NAO and maybe even a bit of a -AO in early Feb. with pretty close to normal SE US heights. Keeping hope alive but at the same time accepting whatever happens in this wacky world of wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I want to clarify that even in late January (but mostly Feb), I have seen temps one day in the upper 60's to EVEN low to mid 70's and the next day we had snow on the ground. I am sticking with Robert's (Foothills) thoughts on one or two significant events before winter is over. I have looked back at some years and found that we have our biggest snows (of the one storm variety) when the winter pattern overall has sucked. In the colder winters it seems to be more "nickel and dime" winter weather. I guess my point is that we stilll have plenty of winter left and things can change, even in 12 hours time, etc. Im with you bro, 88 (we had 16") pretty much sucked except for the storm of the century in the upstate. I said at the beginning of winter id trade in 3 small snows for 1 big one over 8" and still stand by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Robert, It will be interesting to see if this evening's Euro weeklies concur. The most recent ones suggested a pretty strong -NAO and maybe even a bit of a -AO in early Feb. with pretty close to normal SE US heights. Keeping hope alive but at the same time accepting whatever happens in this wacky world of wx. Folks, Hot off the press *fwiw*. Sure enough, the brand new Euro weeklies are again going with the trend of -NAO in the first half of Feb. They actually suggest a very strong 500 mb warm anomaly centered from S. Greenland into NE Canada and much of N. Canada. The SE US actually has slightly BELOW (yes, you read that correctly) anomalies and the coldest anomalies in just about all of N. America outside of Alaska! eeping hope that this entire winter will not be in the commode but still accepting whatever happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Robert, It will be interesting to see if this evening's Euro weeklies concur. The most recent ones suggested a pretty strong -NAO and maybe even a bit of a -AO in early Feb. with pretty close to normal SE US heights. Keeping hope alive but at the same time accepting whatever happens in this wacky world of wx. That's what I'm interested in. How the Euro weeklies stack up. If they are showing a -NAO and -AO it's a VERY good sign considering what the GFS ENS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Folks, Hot off the press *fwiw*. Sure enough, the brand new Euro weeklies are again going with the trend of -NAO in the first half of Feb. They actually suggest a very strong 500 mb warm anomaly centered from S. Greenland into NE Canada and much of N. Canada. The SE US actually has slightly BELOW (yes, you read that correctly) anomalies and the coldest anomalies in just about all of N. America outside of Alaska! eeping hope that this entire winter will not be in the commode but still accepting whatever happens Very good signs abound with the Long range modeling. I just hope this is not some kinda of big fake out by the models. Not enough to get excited but glimmers of hope on the horizon is better than what we have been seeing. This is where you should hang your hat if your looking for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I haven't seen them but imagine from what Larry is showing they have a block in eastern Canada or Greenland. Either location is pretty good for deflecting the cold air to the East and esp. the Southeast , relative to normals. We'll just have to wait and see if they keep this idea alive as we go along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I haven't seen them but imagine from what Larry is showing they have a block in eastern Canada or Greenland. Either location is pretty good for deflecting the cold air to the East and esp. the Southeast , relative to normals. We'll just have to wait and see if they keep this idea alive as we go along. Robert, In week 4, the strongest warm 500 mb anomalies stretch from S. Greenland to NNE Canada north of Hudson Bay. Virtually all of Canada, all of Greenland and the north Atlantic, and the western 2/3 of the US have warm anomalies. Cold is found in most all of Europe. Also, strong cold is centered over the far western Aleutians with below normal over Alaska, the north Pacific, and E. Asia. The eastern 1/3 of the U.S. eastward to Europe as well as MX have slightly below normal anomalies. This could mean storminess near the SE US with the strong block to the north. Going from week 1 to week 4, the strong cold western Canada anomaly retrogrades westward each week until it reaches 2,000 miles west of its week 1 position as of week 4 (centered over W. Aleutians). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 18z GFS at 168-204 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 18z GFS at 168-204 hrs... 18z OP is a GooFuS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Yeah, I'd rely on the Euro more at this point since it has been more consistent, although even it is rather impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Jon, I'm pretty sure andyhb was talking about severe weather parameters in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Jon, I'm pretty sure andyhb was talking about severe weather parameters in that timeframe. Yes. One of the mods on tennesseewx mentioned that it was as impressive setup as he's seen for a winter svr threat, although it is just one run and still way too far out to get more specific at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Jon, I'm pretty sure andyhb was talking about severe weather parameters in that timeframe. Yes. How so? Andy, care to discuss about the significance? I'm interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The ensemble telecon's are much different, haven't looked at the run though to see what it looks like. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/18zensindices.html 18z OP is a GooFuS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 How so? Andy, care to discuss about the significance? I'm interested. Check these: Keep in mind that the Gulf will be open several days before this system passes, so instability/moisture is probably underdone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The ensemble telecon's are much different, haven't looked at the run though to see what it looks like. http://raleighwx.ame...ensindices.html Yeah that's what I posted, OP/ENS for both NAO and AO...not sure if you could tell, probably should've labeled them in my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Check these: Keep in mind that the Gulf will be open several days before this system passes, so instability/moisture is probably underdone... Gotcha...pretty clear looking at twisterdata images, not so clear on Allan's site when all I'm looking at is 850mb/6hr precip maps. I just gotta remind myself when you post it's probably about severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.