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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion III


Rankin5150

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That is certainly a change. I hope it holds.

It wasn't in neg terriotory at 0z last night, but neutral as the month closed out. Then at 6z it went negative by end of month, like it shows above. Just something to watch and see if it continues and gets more suport from euro when it gets within 10 days. One thing is for sure all models op & ens depict a 3-5 day warmer than normal timespan coming up next week. I just hope it's short lived or tempered by clouds/rain/fog. The fruit trees could do without this early tease.

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Day 9 and 10 looks really warm over the whole country. You have to go to central Canada to get into cold air, everyone else is well above their normals. I guess relative to normals teh Midatlantic and central to northern Plains and Ohio Valley are the most above their normals roughly guessing . Wait til the anomalies charts come out. The only thing to watch is the cutoff in the central or southern Plains at day 9 and 10.

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Just looked at the local 10 day forecast and I'm seeing temps in the 60's. My daffodils are also coming up in my flower bed! Wow. This is crazy! I love snow, but if we're not going to get any, I'd rather have these spring time temps.

It will be an ugly spring I believe. Cold air will come back and bite all spring blooms, even if it don't snow we will pay for warm temperatures. Bank on it

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mexico and west Tx is downright hot at 180. +20 to +24 at 850. I haven't seen those temps on a map since sometime last Fall or late Summer. The 582 height line surges across all the Southeast at 180 to 192 hours. Can't remember the last time we saw that in January.

Robert,looks similar to how high the heights got back during the last few days of January 2002, when numerous records were set. A record high of 76 was recorded here January 31st. Unreal!

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_reanal-u.cgi?re=us≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&yy=2002&mm=01&dd=29&hh=00&overlay=no≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&yy=&mm=&dd=&hh=

http://vortex.plymou...yy=&mm=&dd=&hh=

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Robert,looks similar to how high the heights got back during the last few days of January 2002, when numerous records were set. A record high of 76 was recorded here January 31st. Unreal!

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_reanal-u.cgi?re=us≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&yy=2002&mm=01&dd=31&hh=00&overlay=no≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&yy=&mm=&dd=&hh=

What was the following Feb and march like?

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Well, we all pretty much know that the models are going to show torch for the next several days at least. We know that. I'd say it'll probably be the good part of a week before we'll start seeing legitimate hope of anything resembling Winter show up in the long range. Until then, it's useless to even worry about, unless you're routing for record highs.

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The modeled 1040+ high over the lakes at day 10 on both the Euro and GFS is interesting, other than that the LR still looks like butt, actually it even gets worse. But sometimes right before a turnaround it appears most bleak.

True, but countered by the fact that sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train.

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Well, if winter is going to be much above normal, I'd just as soon see summer be much below. While I much prefer bitter temps in winter, I'd trade for some strings of 60's in the heart of summer. Oddly it never works that way. Ma nature doesn't think anything of screwing us out of a cold winter, but always seems to favor the summer lovers with plenty of heat, lol.

Still, if Feb. is above normal, I'll eat my hat!

And fortunately I have enough time to make a nice chocolate chip cookie stetson, just in case, lol. T

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It will be an ugly spring I believe. Cold air will come back and bite all spring blooms, even if it don't snow we will pay for warm temperatures. Bank on it

Your right. folks who root this weather on have no idea of the headaches it will cause all those peach & apple orchards, not to mention ski slopes. January thaws are nothing new or uncommon. But this year the soil temps have been runing way ahead of normal levels. Plants will definetly be succeptible to thinking it's go time. The good news for those (plants & people) ready for spring is today marks thee halfway point of met winter.
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Your right. folks who root this weather on have no idea of the headaches it will cause all those peach & apple orchards, not to mention ski slopes. January thaws are nothing new or uncommon. But this year the soil temps have been runing way ahead of normal levels. Plants will definetly be succeptible to thinking it's go time. The good news for those (plants & people) ready for spring is today marks thee halfway point of met winter.

We mowed a property last week, my grass is still dark green. Soil temperatures are still up. I do believe cold will be back with wintry weather but damage will be done this year to spring trees and shrubs

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Yeah, the Euro from day 7 on is a bad run for winter lovers just about everywhere, not just here. I am almost ready to say- bring on spring and severe weather.

Agree, bring it... Jan is toast, last week of the month literally. Very difficult to get cold air with the southern third of central and eastern Canada toasting. Maybe Feb flips, who knows, but given the atypical crappy pattern, looking for the SE ridge to reassert middle part of next month going into early March. Great for svr lovers, kiss of death for winter types.

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I wonder if the Euro is overdoing the extreme warmth in the extended. It could be right, but we have seen it be not so great in the 7-10 day range in recent times. Conversely, the GFS (which we all know can be horrid, too) is much different in the longer range, especially with the 18Z run. The GFS has a weak LP in the SE day 9 with cold HP in SE Canada.

gfs_namer_216_1000_500_thick.gif

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Agree, bring it... Jan is toast, last week of the month literally. Very difficult to get cold air with the southern third of central and eastern Canada toasting. Maybe Feb flips, who knows, but given the atypical crappy pattern, looking for the SE ridge to reassert middle part of next month going into early March. Great for svr lovers, kiss of death for winter types.

If the long range still looks like crap in two weeks I am busting out all the fishing gear and if it flips to cold for several months after that I am gonna be pissed. Severe season could be awesome and early which is fine with me.....

Also we are getting together at Steves for beer and backstrap next Sunday so far it me, Steve, Jeff and Bozart you in? Looking like early to mid afternoon to start.....

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The 18z gfs ensembles held serve on the NAO going negative LR by months end. Only 14 more days to go. Operational is getting there ever so slowly. Figured I monitor this new found trend today since there is nothing else to track. This makes 3 consecutive runs for the GFS ens. Darn thing will probably verify and wind up being to far west based to help the SE.

12zallnao.gif

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The 18z gfs ensembles held serve on the NAO going negative LR by months end. Only 14 more days to go. Operational is getting there ever so slowly. Figured I monitor this new found trend today since there is nothing else to track. This makes 3 consecutive runs for the GFS ens. Darn thing will probably verify and wind up being to far west based to help the SE.

Don't you mean too far east-based. A west based -NAO is what we need here for cold and snow. The NAO can't be too far west based and still be classified as a NAO.

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If the long range still looks like crap in two weeks I am busting out all the fishing gear and if it flips to cold for several months after that I am gonna be pissed. Severe season could be awesome and early which is fine with me.....

Also we are getting together at Steves for beer and backstrap next Sunday so far it me, Steve, Jeff and Bozart you in? Looking like early to mid afternoon to start.....

Wish I could be a part of that get-together.....but it's too far to drive.

Big differences in the Pacific northwest on the NAM vs. GFS at the 84 hour range. I still don't believe any model out past day 2.

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I don't mind the warmth so long as we get rain on a weekly basis. Warm weather with little to no rain is going to be a problem, especially for the eastern and southwestern NC. Texas will be in serious trouble this Spring it they don't get a significant amount of rain to reduce the impacts of the drought last summer. The last thing the folks there need is a warm, dry Spring!

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