lilj4425 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 On the 00z GFS. At 168 the southerly flow begins. By 180 hour, 582 heights over most of the Southeast, with 588 over Florida. Unreal for january. By 264 hr, those get knocked down to late April or early May levels. My reaction to this fantastic news: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Just have to laugh :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Just have to laugh :-) I'm not sure I'm reading this correctly, but does this actually show Florida and Mexico as really cold and it gets warmer the more north you go? Completely baffled by this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I'm not sure I'm reading this correctly, but does this actually show Florida and Mexico as really cold and it gets warmer the more north you go? Completely baffled by this one. Colder as compared to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 This weekend we're scheduled (by models & mets) to start our warm period. You guys might laugh, but I'm really hoping for a day seven cool front to possible provide a couple of near freezing nights. As i posted before I have fruit and nut trees and I'm really worried about this time span. GFS does show a possible cool down at day 15. So if the below can happen maybe we don't get 10 days in a row of 70 degree highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Hopefully end of Jan we'll start seeing an extreme in the right direction, i only wish we could trust the long range model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 No doubt we going to get warm, But models don't pick up on the low level cold air that good, So I don't think it will be blowtorch for solid week or weeks at a time, warm few days then a cool shot. rinse and repeat, JMO.... We don't ever trust lr models with the cold so I'm not trusting for weeks of blowtorch.... But what does a snowman know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The 6z GFS again provides some uncertainty to the duration of the warm-up. Looks to me that it lasts from around January 20-26th before a SLP sends more cold air in. That is just according to this one model run. edit: For the record, I said this before DT mentioned the same thing on FB around 11:00 AM - not trying to grab any of his info and then repost it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The 6z GFS again provides some uncertainty to the duration of the warm-up. Looks to me that it lasts from around January 20-26th before a SLP sends more cold air in. That is just according to this one model run. The modeled 1040+ high over the lakes at day 10 on both the Euro and GFS is interesting, other than that the LR still looks like butt, actually it even gets worse. But sometimes right before a turnaround it appears most bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I'm not sure I'm reading this correctly, but does this actually show Florida and Mexico as really cold and it gets warmer the more north you go? Completely baffled by this one. Is shows that Canada is going to be much warmer than normal, which we need Canada to be cold for us to get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 the gulf of Alaska vortex still there at day 10. And it looks like Canada is about to be evacuated of cold air right after day 10, but as others mentioned theres a 1040 high just north of the Lakes, and this run maintains continuity that a cutoff may form somewhere in Tx or lower miss. valley. Good rainmaker atleast west of the Apps. I guess there could be snow under or west of that cutoff, so we'll see where that develops and heads to. Could be severe ahead of it. It's a 10 day prog so I'm sure it will change some, could actually be some damming from the high ahead of it, I think GFS hinted at that one run, timing will have to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Is shows that Canada is going to be much warmer than normal, which we need Canada to be cold for us to get cold. This is not true per se when one is referring to anomalies. Canada does not NEED to be cold anomalywise. In contrast, sometimes a cold SE US and a warm Canada have coexisted. Granted, having colder than normal air in Canada would mean a colder source for any of it that manages to then plunge way down into the SE. Way above normal Canadian air obviously means a not so cold source. Nevertheless, I would bet that a large % of the time much of Canada is NOT cold at the same time the SE is cold. I would also bet that a sizeable % of the time that a not cold Canada has actually preceded quite cold SE US cold plunges. Keep in mind that even much above normal Canadian air that makes it quickly down into the SE US so that it hasn't had a chance to modify much on its trek south can actually be much below normal air in the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 This is not true per se when one us referring to anomalies. Canada does not NEED to be cold anomalywise. In contrast, sometimes a cold SE US and a warm Canada have coexisted. Granted, having colder than normal air in Canada would mean a colder source for any of it that manages to then plunge way down into the SE. Way above normal Canadian air obviously means a not so cold source. Nevertheless, I would bet that a large % of the time much of Canada is NOT cold at the same time the SE is cold. I would also bet that a sizeable % of the time that a not cold Canada has actually preceded quite cold SE US cold plunges. Keep in mind that even much above normal Canadian air that makes it quickly down into the SE US so that it hasn't had a chance to modify much on its trek south can actually be much below normal air in the SE US. Just ask our posters from Ottawa about that. Granted it's closer to the states but still the last two winters that we blockbusters for us were not good for them IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 This is not true per se when one us referring to anomalies. Canada does not NEED to be cold anomalywise. In contrast, sometimes a cold SE US and a warm Canada have coexisted. Granted, having colder than normal air in Canada would mean a colder source for any of it that manages to then plunge way down into the SE. Way above normal Canadian air obviously means a not so cold source. Nevertheless, I would bet that a large % of the time much of Canada is NOT cold at the same time the SE is cold. I would also bet that a sizeable % of the time that a not cold Canada has actually preceded quite cold SE US cold plunges. Keep in mind that even much above normal Canadian air that makes it quickly down into the SE US so that it hasn't had a chance to modify much on its trek south can actually be much below normal air in the SE US. Hard to follow, but a +15 to +20 850T anomaly wise isn't good. Like I said in my post above we need a 1040+ high to squeeze every bit of cold air from Canada and that may won't be good enough. This is a 10+ day model prog so don't want to get into specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 No, but my wife know Mike. I see what you did there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Hard to follow, but a +15 to +20 850T anomaly wise isn't good. Like I said in my post above we need a 1040+ high to squeeze every bit of cold air from Canada and that may won't be good enough. This is a 10+ day model prog so don't want to get into specifics. I was responding to you saying, "we need Canada to be cold for us to get cold." That is not at all an accurate statement. A great example, to which burgertime referred, is 2009-10, which was the warmest since 1948 in Canada while it was the coldest in ~30 years in much of the SE US! Check this link: http://forums.cnet.com/7723-6130_102-388921/cold-in-the-us-warm-in-canada/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I was responding to you saying, "we need Canada to be cold for us to get cold." That is not at all an accurate statement. A great example, to which burgertime referred, is 2009-10, which was the warmest since 1948 in Canada while it was the coldest in ~30 years in much of the SE US! Check this link: http://forums.cnet.c...warm-in-canada/ Your right, we want it warm in Canada, what was I thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 the gulf of Alaska vortex still there at day 10. And it looks like Canada is about to be evacuated of cold air right after day 10, but as others mentioned theres a 1040 high just north of the Lakes, and this run maintains continuity that a cutoff may form somewhere in Tx or lower miss. valley. Good rainmaker atleast west of the Apps. I guess there could be snow under or west of that cutoff, so we'll see where that develops and heads to. Could be severe ahead of it. It's a 10 day prog so I'm sure it will change some, could actually be some damming from the high ahead of it, I think GFS hinted at that one run, timing will have to be determined. That map just seems "out of balance" when looking at the distribution of temps. I would think that is a pretty rare pattern that it is depicting though I am no history buff when it comes to past weather patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Your right, we want it warm in Canada, what was I thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 LOL....Our cold comes from the Caribbean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Look what Foothills said "Canada is about to be evacuated of cold air right after day 10"...Your just trying to be argumentative, for whatever reason. The fact is it's not a good look, it's terrible look at day 11 (after that 1040 high moves east). Do you disagree with that. I am not talking about pass history, when we had a well placed -NAO, which we don't have. You have great insight, which I love to read but this time your wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The 12z GFS, after Jan 28th, looks to move a transient(?) trough the Eastern US. Could it be a red herring? Yep. The pattern after the 28th doesn't look so bad. The GFS could be wrong and has played that game more than once at this time period and has been wrong. What I am watching for(and it may never happen) is a flip to winter. It's not there yet - not even close. But it holds the warm-up at seven days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Look what Foothills said "Canada is about to be evacuated of cold air right after day 10"...Your just trying to be argumentative, for whatever reason. The fact is it's not a good look, it's terrible look at day 11 (after that 1040 high moves east). Do you disagree with that. I am not talking about pass history, when we had a well placed -NAO, which we don't have. You have great insight, which I love to read but this time your wrong. I think what Larry is saying is that a warme than normal Canada doesn't usually mean a warmer than normal Southeast. It's relative, and quite often thats indeed the case...if Canada is above their normal temps, usually the Southeast is below their normal temps. And this can occur either simultaneously or just between airmasses being on the move. A neg. NAO is one example of it being really warm in Eastern Canada while being really cold in the Southeast Anyway the GFS still looks bad all through the run, there was a couple of cold fronts, but quick to warm up. Could be some severe weather to follow in about 10 days depending on the look of that trough in the southern Plains. ECMWF was cutting it off. Bermuda ridge is still strong and pumps warm air into the Southeast more often than not. The Gulf of Alaska vortex remains there most of the time. The Pacific just is working against getting any cold air in here, other than brief shots. Maybe February will see a change in the pattern. Southern Alaska is going to be a huge glacier when this Winter's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 So GSP sets my highest temp of the week for next Saturday at 58.. Other than that, looks like highs in the mid 40's to upper 50's. I can handle this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 So GSP sets my highest temp of the week for next Saturday at 58.. Other than that, looks like highs in the mid 40's to upper 50's. I can handle this.. Its right after the next Wed-Sat time frame that we really begin to see the southeast ridge and 576 to 582 heights build into the South and East. It does look like the GFS keeps delaying the warm up a day or so but eventually they do get there. I'd say the week after next is when we have our warmest temps. And how high we get depends on some sunshine, there could be enough cirrus or precip. to keep the temps in check somewhat, but if we get a fully sunny pattern or partially sunny days , those days will see the temps really soar. It's too far out to be specific though on surface temps, but the potential is going to be there to have really warm highs, since heights and 850 temps are so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Since we talking LR and models are usually pretty close I thought I would post this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The pattern will change in March and set us up for some good CAD just wait and see March and April lots of rain with CAD temps in the 40's then after the rain events there will be many freezes this spring. :axe: Of course the Mountains will get some snow this spring they always do..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Since we talking LR and models are usually pretty close I thought I would post this. That's a FROPA, not sure if you were implying that this image was showing snow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 That's a FROPA, not sure if you were implying that this image was showing snow or not. It was the only exciting thing out there.. Just wanted to post something.NEVER would I imply snow here! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Look what Foothills said "Canada is about to be evacuated of cold air right after day 10"...Your just trying to be argumentative, for whatever reason. The fact is it's not a good look, it's terrible look at day 11 (after that 1040 high moves east). Do you disagree with that. I am not talking about pass history, when we had a well placed -NAO, which we don't have. You have great insight, which I love to read but this time your wrong. Thanks! Regarding Canada, I'm not trying to be argumentative, I've said something similar, including recently. I'm not being a weenie. I think that it is a common misconception since it is sort of counterintuitive. That being said, I'm not saying that means we're not going to continue warm for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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