Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion III

[POWERSTROKE]

well I have basically quit watching models for a while. I am not excited anymore about wintry weather however i do believe we will get some before winter ends. We will just continue with our work schedule and if winter weather comes all trucks and plows are ready. If not we will try again next winter. I definitely am not giving up as I have seen many storms in feb and march I'm just not going to sit around waiting for it like we all were when models looked like something was coming

[Met1985]

Here's some good news that I mentioned a while back. Most blocking patterns in winter still tend to do us favors much more often than not. I looked at the years for blocking in Alaska or near Alaska (this one is odd so far northwest), and about a month later the Southeast usually had a winter storm. I couldn't find all the years, but looked at the nina years. It took about a month most of the time when there was an Ak block. Big lag time, but thats how the atmosphere works. I'm not committing to saying this year will feature something good in Feb, but odds are high enough. And climo argues against continuous non stop warmth from Nov through Feb. here. I've never seen it. (not counting 2 day cold snaps). So, the block may have occurred just in time...any later would push us close to early March, doable, but tougher for many.

Thanks for the info and being somewhat positive for the future. I am about to write off the rest of January after next weeks cold snap but after that who noes what is going to happen. I would hope something positive in the way of cold and snow. It would be just amazing to have just torched from Jan to Mar.

[wh_adkins01]

I dont know...No 2 runs of any model will be identical..subtle and sometimes extreme differences can and will show up. Especially in the LR...so we look for continuity in the overall scheme of things and looking over just about any plausible solution we have seen from the GFS lately, It just doesn't look good. Occasionally a favorable pattern will present it's self on 1 run w/ the possibility of a storm and we latch onto it and tend to run with it..until the next run the models scream "gotcha!"...Excluding the couple of instances where this has happened, overall I would say the models have been pretty consistent...and looking down the road for the foreseeable future, There really isn't much hope...I'm not doubting that mid-late Feb will have something to offer but as of right now the remainder of Jan looks awful for those in the SE wanting winter weather...myself included

[NCSNOW]

Cheeck out the ssts. Is it common to see 70 degree water in Jan out in the gulf stream?

Also sure this will be more expansive when it updates by Sat and espeacilly Sun a.m.

[FoothillsNC]

The upcoming two weeks will probably be a tale of extremes. For the northwest, flooding and mudslides along the coast from extreme northern Cal. to the Pudget Sound and BC. The snows will accumulate 10 to 20 feet in the mountains. The pac. jet is shown to ramp up severely and hose that area, all the ingredients are coming together with a convergence of the flow offshore , a stalled arctic boundary and strong gales pinwheeling off the 970mb low in the Gulf of Alaska for over a week straight. There's good model agreement here for a once in 30 year event probably.

For the Southeast, the jetstream will begin to pul north into Eastern Canada, but a couple of fronts will come through with rain over the next 2 weeks. In between, we'll get warmer and warmer and flirt with record highs. It will begin to feel like early Spring on the days there's sunshine, but the GFS is beginning to hone in over the southern Miss. Valley pretty soon, around day 9 or 10 with the front hitting a Bermuda Ridge, which should firmly be in place since the jet is in eastern Canada. Already strong winds and very strong gulf inflow is showing up on the boundary in La, Miss. Al. and the model holds that in place several days, so there could be a major rain event there. That eventually rains over the Southeast and East Coast, followed by another possible cutoff low. No cold air to be found, so that looks like a pure rainmaker. The model is very generous with rains esp. west of the Apps and toward the Gulf, with some 5" totals in 16 days.

It's probably safe to say that January will be very warm and have high + departures in all of the southeastern third of the nation. If there are enough sunny days late next week and then the next when it's very warm, this will push the growing season to an early false start. Sure we'll be seeing pics of blooming everything by the fourth week of the month (iris, daffodils, tulips, yellow bells, cherry trees, bradfords, etc).

[downeastnc]

Cheeck out the ssts. Is it common to see 70 degree water in Jan out in the gulf stream?

Its not uncommon at all in fact it never really goes much lower than that regardless of how bad the winters are. The water changes from a greenish tint to blue once you get into the GS.

[WeatherNC]

Well, I wish there was some positive news for winter wx lovers in the SE, but I do not see anything on the horizon besides more RN, and maybe record high temps in the extended. After the cold front middle of next week, January thaw commences during what has historically been the coldest period of the year. The GFS has been fairly consistent in showing above to much above normal temps for the period 23rd-28th, possibly beyond. Bermuda high and 582dm heights nosing in from the gulf at day 10 will do wonders on a Jan heating bill at the cost of 86'ing any winter type chances for the foreseeable future. Below is the 0z ecmwf mean at day 10, using this rather than the op as it smoothes out differences giving a more subdued, and maybe more accurate picture. As Robert and other have mentioned, PAC NW into BC are in for a memorable pattern. Polar vortex in located in the northern NW territories, oriented sw into the Gulf of AK. This may be a stubborn pattern to break, taking several weeks once it becomes fully established here in a week or so. Jan is toast, likely into the first couple days of Feb.

Sent from my iPad2

[Brick Tamland]

Well, I wish there was some positive news for winter wx lovers in the SE, but I do not see anything on the horizon besides more RN, and maybe record high temps in the extended. After the cold front middle of next week, January thaw commences during what has historically been the coldest period of the year. The GFS has been fairly consistent in showing above to much above normal temps for the period 23rd-28th, possibly beyond. Bermuda high and 582dm heights nosing in from the gulf at day 10 will do wonders on a Jan heating bill at the cost of 86'ing any winter type chances for the foreseeable future. Below is the 0z ecmwf mean at day 10, using this rather than the op as it smoothes out differences giving a more subdued, and maybe more accurate picture. As Robert and other have mentioned, PAC NW into BC are in for a memorable pattern. Polar vortex in located in the northern NW territories, oriented sw into the Gulf of AK. This may be a stubborn pattern to break, taking several weeks once it becomes fully established here in a week or so. Jan is toast, likely into the first couple days of Feb.

Sent from my iPad2

Good. I will enjoy the warm weather and play some basketball at lunch at work. If we are not going to have snow, I will take the warmer temps.

[Carvers Gap]

I am not trusting any of the models past day ten at the moment after their performance over the past week - portraying extreme cold to now extreme warmth. The truth probably is somewhere in the middle. I have often heard that it is unwise to buy into extremes, they probably won't happen. I think the case is true here. For example the 6z GFS has a pattern that might produce 2-3 days of warmth(could be a record high broken somewhere), but the ridge is quickly squashed that produces the warmth. The NWS doesn't have a day over 50 at KTRI for the next week. That's hardly a torch, but then again, maybe it goes warmer. Past seven days, how do we doubt the cold when it shows on the models but completey buy the "warm-up of the century" during the same time frame. I understand that it can happen w/ the position of the blocks, but I find it difficult to believe that all of that cold air in Canada will not make it southward somewhere in the US other than the Pacific NW. I do believe(and have believed for quite some time) this is one of those winters where KTRI won't get much snow - probably half of its yearly average if we're lucky. I also believe the winter will be well-above normal(temps) because of December. It's a moderate La Nina - it's supposed to be warm here. So, I'm always a little shocked when folks get upset because it's warm. Though La Nina's are known for their warmth, they are also known for radical changes to cold for short periods. I believe that is what the models are missing at this point, the next cold spell. To me, January has behaved more typically(temp. wise only) like a La Nina winter. Warm broken by sharp cold spells. I think that is the pattern and probably will continue. So, I have my doubts about record warmth locking in. It could for sure. But I doubt it. I'll give the warmth 5-7 days before another cold shot breaks its back. Then wash, rinse, and repeat. What we need to hope for in the SE is that the cold can hit at the right time.

[Lookout]

FWIW the Euro ensembles, while not really cold in the longer range, are not as "blowtorchy" as the Op Euro. Actually, if we are going to be snowless, it might as well get into the 60s.

I was just thinking the same thing this morning. This winter could go down as one of the worst ever for a large part of the country (with regards to snow) so if it's going to be bad, we might as well not have nuisance cold which is what we have been getting. I know we have no right to complain after the last few years but good grief this winter is a 10 on the suck factor scale. I'm glad though I didn't have high hopes leading into this winter, that would have made it much more painful.

[Carvers Gap]

Another perspective about the upcoming pattern. Here is the link.

Hit it - Post 562.

[FoothillsNC]

I was just thinking the same thing this morning. This winter could go down as one of the worst ever for a large part of the country (with regards to snow) so if it's going to be bad, we might as well not have nuisance cold which is what we have been getting. I know we have no right to complain after the last few years but good grief this winter is a 10 on the suck factor scale. I'm glad though I didn't have high hopes leading into this winter, that would have made it much more painful.

the way I view this is that it's working in extremes. Look how long the AO has been so positive and where the AK vortex has been. Now the dirty work is going to perform for the northwest part of the Country and we're going to see unusually high heights for the remainder of the South and eventually east, so toasty temps are coming. Now the question is when and where does the pattern flip? Could there be an extreme the other way, turning Alaska warm, and focusing the cold anomalies into the East or South in February? Or March? I think odds are pretty good it happens but no guarantee. That's more likely than having so many very warm months in a row I think. Then again it could wait until later March or April to switch, which would do us no favors. Right now I'm still leaning toward one of the extremes playing out, either we remain unusually warm or we turn extremely cold in Feb and/or March..probably no middle ground.

[NEGa]

FWIW the Euro ensembles, while not really cold in the longer range, are not as "blowtorchy" as the Op Euro. Actually, if we are going to be snowless, it might as well get into the 60s.

this winter is pulling me closer to the 'if its not going to snow it might as well be warm" camp lol. if we are getting record cold great. if we are getting frozen precip great. but 20s - 40s and a strong wind (but not strong enough to be interesting) and dry conditions is getting old. lol esp since when the precip comes in the temps will warm up anyway. we might as well not be shivering for nothing

although i am not as enthusiastic, i still have a little hope. after all we still have a couple of months to have moisture and cold in the se at the same time. feb. has been a pretty good month here at times (except last year when winter ended in mid feb. but with all the snow and cold by then it didnt really matter). one snowfall with just a couple of inches of snow would still give us close to our annual average.

if we get into early to mid feb. and things are still not looking good for the next month we might be in trouble. seems like in the early to mid 2000s there were several feb. with a 3" or more snow fall after mid month

It's so depressing around here I would bet a lot of people stopped watching the models. I know I have stopped watching for a few days, I will start back up in a week or so to get a peak on Feb. Hopefully someone on the EC gets a good snow event, I don't even care if it's us, just anyone.

i have stopped looking (and did a while ago). seeing as how the mid to long range has been all over the place i generally just watch/look periodically and then when something is about to occur i do check out the models and the RUC. it has made things a little less annoying at least

I was just thinking the same thing this morning. This winter could go down as one of the worst ever for a large part of the country (with regards to snow) so if it's going to be bad, we might as well not have nuisance cold which is what we have been getting. I know we have no right to complain after the last few years but good grief this winter is a 10 on the suck factor scale. I'm glad though I didn't have high hopes leading into this winter, that would have made it much more painful.

a huge part of the US is in the same winter pattern we are for the most part. its pretty horrendous in a lot of place. thankfully my expectations were low as well but they werent this low lol. the last two great winters were front loaded, and i do remember a couple of back loaded ones. all is not lost, but it is looking not-so-good more and more each day

nuisance cold is a great term, thats what i was getting at in my post, i just couldnt come up with that term

[FoothillsNC]

After the Wednesday cold front next week, we'll go straight into a warm advection pattern and ridging that carries us through the month. At times the ridging in the Southeast and East Coast will be well above normal, leading to record high temps I think (esp. Midatlantic and Northeast) where the deviations from normal will be the greatest. But the occasional rain and clouds may temper the temperatures a little, still I see lots of 60s and 70's during the last half of January from Texas, Ok, all across the Southeast and even 60's very common into Midatlantic and possibly the Northeast, with strong ridging shown at times. The 5h configuration latter January strongly resembles the month of May. No changes in sight that I can see from GFS. West trough, East ridge.

[DixieBlizzard]

Agricultural weather has to become a major concern in many areas of the south moving forward. The bradford pear that blew down in my front yard before Christmas was loaded with buds ready to bloom almost. I know the peach crop depends on temps being below freeziing for "x" amount of hours, etc. What some have alluded to in here and on other threads about plants blooming way too early has to be a very real concern now, especially if a scenario like Robert talks about comes to fruition. A big flip to cold in late Feb, early Mar or anytime thereafter could be devastating.

[packbacker]

It's so bad we don't need just one thing to change, I don't even know where to start hoping for changes. It's like getting dealt a bad poker hand you just want a reshuffle....

After the Wednesday cold front next week, we'll go straight into a warm advection pattern and ridging that carries us through the month. At times the ridging in the Southeast and East Coast will be well above normal, leading to record high temps I think (esp. Midatlantic and Northeast) where the deviations from normal will be the greatest. But the occasional rain and clouds may temper the temperatures a little, still I see lots of 60s and 70's during the last half of January from Texas, Ok, all across the Southeast and even 60's very common into Midatlantic and possibly the Northeast, with strong ridging shown at times. The 5h configuration latter January strongly resembles the month of May. No changes in sight that I can see from GFS. West trough, East ridge.

[Cold Rain]

It's so bad we don't need just one thing to change, I don't even know where to start hoping for changes. It's like getting dealt a bad poker hand you just want a reshuffle....

We have a 2 of hearts, 3 of hearts, 6 of diamonds, 8 of diamonds, and a Jack of hearts. All red!

The Jack is that we're still in the middle of winter at least. That's the ONLY thing going for us at this point.

[oconeexman]

In about a wekk we'll start seeing good things on models i suspect...no data behind that just my intuition and belief of things gotta even out.

[Cold Rain]

In about a wekk we'll start seeing good things on models i suspect...no data behind that just my intuition and belief of things gotta even out.

I think you're right, if for no other reason than I can't imagine it's possible for them to look worse!

[FoothillsNC]

ecmwf today didn't look quite as bad as GFS. By day 10 it has a major deepening in the midsection, that would probably cutoff somewhere or atleast come through the east to some extent, with colder weather. There's the chance somewhere around that time frame that as the heights rise quickly in eastern Canada and the northeast, a cutoff will separate itself somewhere south or southwest of there. I meant to add this to the major heat discussion. If that happens, obviously we'd throw a big wrench in low level temps. We'll need to get rid of the cold air in Greenland and get rid of the Alaskan vortex...those 2 things have been semi-permanent for months now.

[NCSNOW]

I thought I saw a cutoff deep in the MS valley/Ark/Tex region last night on the GFS way out in day 12+ range on the 0z run. Of course we would be on warm side. Need a cutoff in northern GOM exiting Savannah/Charleston. Wishful thinking, but a big blockbuster storm before seasons end would help this snowbird survive the next 8 ensuing months until next winter. Thanks for taking time to update Robert.

[iceman]

Jackson Creek in this Mug. You know Kevin Hunt?

[weatherman566]

the way I view this is that it's working in extremes. Look how long the AO has been so positive and where the AK vortex has been. Now the dirty work is going to perform for the northwest part of the Country and we're going to see unusually high heights for the remainder of the South and eventually east, so toasty temps are coming. Now the question is when and where does the pattern flip? Could there be an extreme the other way, turning Alaska warm, and focusing the cold anomalies into the East or South in February? Or March? I think odds are pretty good it happens but no guarantee. That's more likely than having so many very warm months in a row I think. Then again it could wait until later March or April to switch, which would do us no favors. Right now I'm still leaning toward one of the extremes playing out, either we remain unusually warm or we turn extremely cold in Feb and/or March..probably no middle ground.

Question: If we see the NAO going negative and colder air pushing further south towards late winter and early spring, do you think the Southeast could see an early severe weather season? Could it be another bad severe weather season? Just curious on your take of the overall pattern, assuming it might turn cold towards mid to late February.

I'm just concerned with this warm pattern. It's unusual, and typically mother nature tries to balance it out. I just don't want that balance to be tornadoes and wind damage.

[POWERSTROKE]

Question: If we see the NAO going negative and colder air pushing further south towards late winter and early spring, do you think the Southeast could see an early severe weather season? Could it be another bad severe weather season? Just curious on your take of the overall pattern, assuming it might turn cold towards mid to late February.

I'm just concerned with this warm pattern. It's unusual, and typically mother nature tries to balance it out. I just don't want that balance to be tornadoes and wind damage.

I doubt this year will be as severe as this past year, I surely hope not

[FoothillsNC]

Question: If we see the NAO going negative and colder air pushing further south towards late winter and early spring, do you think the Southeast could see an early severe weather season? Could it be another bad severe weather season? Just curious on your take of the overall pattern, assuming it might turn cold towards mid to late February.

I'm just concerned with this warm pattern. It's unusual, and typically mother nature tries to balance it out. I just don't want that balance to be tornadoes and wind damage.

Even without the neg. nao, the ecmwf has a setup that could be severe at day 10. We just had a couple ef-2 in NC as a result of the closed off low and pretty stout temp diff (that was more shear and topography related), but that system had a severe outlook with it. By all means I think we're headed for a severe season, probably not as bad as last season, but worse than most for sure. That 582 ridge off the Southeast later on and all the cold available in Canada, there will be severe, possibly this month, as well as the next few months.

[Isopycnic]

Jackson Creek in this Mug. You know Kevin Hunt?

No, but my wife know Mike.

[FoothillsNC]

On the 00z GFS. At 168 the southerly flow begins. By 180 hour, 582 heights over most of the Southeast, with 588 over Florida. Unreal for january. By 264 hr, those get knocked down to late April or early May levels.

[burgertime]

@324 ZR in GA...at least there is something I suppose.

[FoothillsNC]

@324 ZR in GA...at least there is something I suppose.

Nice damming event. Its way out there , but fits a Spring pattern doesnt it. Looks like thunderstorms in the Plains just before that. With a 588 ridge, I don't doubt it. Bizarre warmth.

[packbacker]

Took a quick look at the GFS, which I now regret, 1051 high over the lakes and the 850 line is just in NC...shows how warm Canada even is, we are in such bad shape :-(