Lee Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Saw that happen in the late 70's and then cold and snow within a couple weeks. W hat late 70's period are you speaking of? The late seventies "pattern" in winter was never like this one or the one forecasted. Now, there may have been a day or so of very mild where you are but, you can bet it wasn't long lived even there as far as the heart of winter in either of the late seventies ones, although late Feb/march went mild after the super cold in 1977(unless that's what youre referencing?)Or possible December '78 before tha pattern flip. . Those Winters featured a very cold eastern U.S.. Even the negative PDO dominated '78-79 winter was very cold and snowy in the East January thru March. In fact, the entire lower 48 was that year. The NAO was so strongly negative back then much of the time. The point is, I wouldn't compare any/use as analog, late 70's winter period as an example for any mild period this winter. Those were the famous cold winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Euro looks amazingly warm, has the 582 height line from Raleigh to Atlanta on days 9 and 10, with 850 temps around +20 in central Texas to +16 in Arkansas, La, Ok, Miss. Has surface temps in the 70 and above from Columbia to Tupelo to Little Rock . On day 10 the low temp. is 60 or greater from eastern Kentucky to Atlanta to Shreveport. The other big newsmakers is going to be all the rain and snow in the west from northern California to Seattle. Flooding will becoming a problem and one of those storms could be a major low elevation snowstorm, not to mention the high mountain major snowfall (feet of snow). :axe: Unreal. I remember in January of 1999, the year I got married, my dad and I went to the big bend area of Florida to fish and the temp was in the 80's there and in the 70's back at the house. Larry might can verify it. I remember that winter being a really warm one. However, I remember it snowed unbelievably in the mountains of N.C. that March late in the month. They were calling for 1-2" and they got something like 8-10". I have not given up, but dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 :axe: Unreal. I remember in January of 1999, the year I got married, my dad and I went to the big bend area of Florida to fish and the temp was in the 80's there and in the 70's back at the house. Larry might can verify it. I remember that winter being a really warm one. However, I remember it snowed unbelievably in the mountains of N.C. that March late in the month. They were calling for 1-2" and they got something like 8-10". I have not given up, but dang. This winter reminds me a lot of 98-99. I believe we did get a light dusting of snow in Feb of that year but other than that it was a horrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Folks, The doc is back in the house. So, it must be time for another therapy session. Here are some stats for KATL: - KATL has winters with no measurable S/IP about once avery five years on average (17 of 82 winters going back to 1929-30). - Since 1975-6 (last 36 winters), there have been only four w/o measurable S/IP (only one every nine years): 1980-81, 1999-00, 2002-03, and 2005-06. - Since 1929-30, there have been 34 winters with no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1. A very respectable 17 of the 34 (half of them) went on to have measurable S/IP in either Feb. or March. - So, assuming no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1/12, this stat, alone, suggests roughly a 50-50 chance for measurable S/IP at KATL 2/1+. However, I want to see how it looks if I analyze further. - Of those 34 winters with no measurable S/IP, 3 had a cold 12/1-1/31, 19 were near normal, and 12 were warm (similar to what we're experiencing now). Regarding just the 12 with a warm 12/1-1/31 and no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1, 7 of these 12 warm ones ended up having measurable S/IP 2/1+: 1932: 0.3" 3/9 and 0.2" on 3/12....ENSO = neutral 1947: 0.5" 2/28.............................ENSO = neutral 1952: 3.9" 2/26.............................ENSO = weak El Nino 1989: 0.7" 2/23.............................ENSO = strong La Nina 1995: 0.4" 2/6-7...........................ENSO = mod. El Nino 1999: 0.4" 2/24.............................ENSO = mod. La Nina 2007: 0.1" 2/1...............................ENSO = mod. El Nino - Regarding the five warm 12/1-1/31's that ended up with no measurable S/IP the entire winter, their ENSO states were as follows: 1936-7: neutral 1948-9: neutral 1949-50: strong La Nina 1955-6: weak La Nina 1973-4: strong La Nina - We're in a weak La Nina - Taking into acount all of these stats, I still think there's roughly a 50-50 shot at measurable S/IP at KATL 2/1+ this winter. - IF it does occur this winter, the odds favor (based on these stats as well as the expectation of a warm late Jan. into at least very early Feb.) one measurable event of less than 1" in mid to late Feb. or possibly early March. So, keep hope alive! Thanks for your research Larry. I think we'll get something but we might have to wait. I'm not that old but I can't remember many, if any, winters when I didn't get at least a dusting of snow. Even in the bad winters of the 2000s we got something even if it was a coating of slop (2006/2007). I'm confident I will see my ground white or glazed even if it is something small and I will be content with that after the last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 :axe: Unreal. I remember in January of 1999, the year I got married, my dad and I went to the big bend area of Florida to fish and the temp was in the 80's there and in the 70's back at the house. Larry might can verify it. I remember that winter being a really warm one. However, I remember it snowed unbelievably in the mountains of N.C. that March late in the month. They were calling for 1-2" and they got something like 8-10". I have not given up, but dang. 1/99 had highs in the 70's at KATL on 1/21, 1/22, 1/27, 1/28, and 1/29. This was one of those winters I earlier mentioned that had no measurable S/IP and was warm prior to 2/1 but went on to have measurable S/IP later: 0.4" on 2/24. Also, this was a La Nina (moderate). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This winter reminds me a lot of 98-99. I believe we did get a light dusting of snow in Feb of that year but other than that it was a horrible winter. We got 1.5" that February from a clipper. I remember watching 11 alive and the weatherman said "If you see a flurry take a picture because you will be the lucky one." I could see on the radar that it was coming down from Tennessee but I figure it would dry up. It was great snowball snow but school was still in since the roads were wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 1/99 had highs in the 70's at KATL on 1/21, 1/22, 1/27, 1/28, and 1/29. This was one of those winters I earlier mentioned that had no measurable S/IP and was warm prior to 2/1 but went on to have measurable S/IP later: 0.4" on 2/24. Also, this was a La Nina (moderate). Thanks Larry. As was mentioned above, this winter reminds me of the 98-99 winter. Maybe February will have something?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 FWIW the Euro ensembles, while not really cold in the longer range, are not as "blowtorchy" as the Op Euro. Actually, if we are going to be snowless, it might as well get into the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 FWIW the Euro ensembles, while not really cold in the longer range, are not as "blowtorchy" as the Op Euro. Actually, if we are going to be snowless, it might as well get into the 60s. 60's during the afternoon is ok, but 60's at night ? That is 30+ above normal ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 To those who replied about my KATL S/IP research, thanks and you're welcome. However, I had an error. I somehow left off 1933-34, which was still another winter with a warm 12/1-1/31 and no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1. Also, this was a moderate La Nina. There were two measurable S/IP events 2/1+ that winter including a major one: 4" on 2/10 and 0.5" on 3/20. So, here is my revision incorporating 1933-4: Here are some stats for KATL: - KATL has winters with no measurable S/IP about once avery five years on average (17 of 82 winters going back to 1929-30). - Since 1975-6 (last 36 winters), there have been only four w/o measurable S/IP (only one every nine years): 1980-81, 1999-00, 2002-03, and 2005-06. - Since 1929-30, there have been 35 winters with no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1. A very respectable 18 of the 35 (~half of them) went on to have measurable S/IP in either Feb. or March. - So, assuming no measurable S/IP prior to 2/1/12, this stat, alone, suggests roughly a 50-50 chance for measurable S/IP at KATL 2/1+. However, I want to see how it looks if I analyze further. - Of those 34 winters with no measurable S/IP, 3 had a cold 12/1-1/31, 19 were near normal, and 13 were warm (similar to what we're experiencing now). Regarding just the 13 with a warm 12/1-1/31, 8 of these 13 warm ones ended up having measurable S/IP 2/1+: 1932: 0.3" 3/9 and 0.2" on 3/12....ENSO = neutral 1934: 4.0" 2/10 and 0.5" 3/20.......ENSO = mod. La Nina 1947: 0.5" 2/28.............................ENSO = neutral 1952: 3.9" 2/26.............................ENSO = weak El Nino 1989: 0.7" 2/23.............................ENSO = strong La Nina 1995: 0.4" 2/6-7...........................ENSO = mod. El Nino 1999: 0.4" 2/24.............................ENSO = mod. La Nina 2007: 0.1" 2/1...............................ENSO = mod. El Nino - Regarding the five warm 12/1-1/31's that ended up with no measurable S/IP the entire winter, their ENSO states were as follows: 1936-7: neutral 1948-9: neutral 1949-50: strong La Nina 1955-6: weak La Nina 1973-4: strong La Nina - We're in a weak La Nina - Taking into acount all of these stats, I still think there's roughly a 50-50 shot at measurable S/IP at KATL 2/1+ this winter. - IF it does occur this winter, the odds favor (based on these stats as well as the expectation of a warm late Jan. into at least very early Feb.) one event of less than 1" in mid to late Feb. or possibly early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 FWIW the Euro ensembles, while not really cold in the longer range, are not as "blowtorchy" as the Op Euro. Actually, if we are going to be snowless, it might as well get into the 60s. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I wonder if any cities in the south will flirt with all-time record warmth for the month of January. I went to try and find the values and came up empty. But I would imagine a departure around +7 ish would put some close. I'm not saying that will happen but with the warmth modeled I'd love to have the figures to look at if anyone can accommodate that. KATL in particular of course but I welcome any and all data like for for SE cities. edit 2: screw it I'm not even close right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I wonder if any cities in the south will flirt with all-time record warmth for the month of January. I went to try and find the values and came up empty. But I would imagine a departure around +7 ish would put some close. I'm not saying that will happen but with the warmth modeled I'd love to have the figures to look at if anyone can accommodate that. KATL in particular of course but I welcome any and all data like for for SE cities. I wonder if Atlanta has ever had a winter where all 3 winter months (Dec-Feb) were at least 5 above normal in terms of temps ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I wonder if any cities in the south will flirt with all-time record warmth for the month of January. I went to try and find the values and came up empty. But I would imagine a departure around +7 ish would put some close. I'm not saying that will happen but with the warmth modeled I'd love to have the figures to look at if anyone can accommodate that. KATL in particular of course but I welcome any and all data like for for SE cities. For KATL, Jan. of 1950 averaged 55.5 F, the warmest Jan. back to 1930 at least. That was a strong La Nina. There was no measurable S/IP that entire winter fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 For KATL, Jan. of 1950 averaged 55.5 F, the warmest Jan. back to 1930 at least. That was a strong La Nina. There was no measurable S/IP that entire winter fwiw. That is the high and low combined right? If that's the case we are +6.2 and we are only at 49.2. That would mean we need to go +12.5 this month to tie it? January 1950 sounds like it was a torch from beginning to end to arrive at a departure that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I wonder if Atlanta has ever had a winter where all 3 winter months (Dec-Feb) were at least 5 above normal in terms of temps ? Going back to 1939-40, I found none. However, 1998-99, which was a moderate La Nina, came VERY close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 That is the high and low combined right? If that's the case we are +6.2 and we are only at 49.2. That would mean we need to go +12.5 this month to tie it? January 1950 sounds like it was a torch from beginning to end to arrive at a departure that high. Yep. There were 10 highs in the 70's and only one light freeze that Jan.! There was one trace of snow that entire season: on 3/30! March was five degrees colder than Jan! April was only three degrees warmer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Cannot post images (private link), but the 12Z 1/03 run of the Euro 10 day was pretty amazingly accurate- had the current upper low in the east a bit too far south and east but was darn good for a 10 day forecast. Thanks! I should archive better :~( Just wondering how well the models are performing "historically" vs real-time over the 10 day to 14 day frame (as without any data to support it, it seems from recollection over the past 2 - 3 weeks they say one thing and something else ends up happening); wondering as a result how much stock to put into all the warmth they are projecting going forward. Not scientific; just curiosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I wonder if any cities in the south will flirt with all-time record warmth for the month of January. I went to try and find the values and came up empty. But I would imagine a departure around +7 ish would put some close. I'm not saying that will happen but with the warmth modeled I'd love to have the figures to look at if anyone can accommodate that. KATL in particular of course but I welcome any and all data like for for SE cities. edit 2: screw it I'm not even close right now... Try this http://www.daculaweather.com/climate_at_a_glance.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Try this http://www.daculawea...at_a_glance.php Awesome, thank you sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 CPC 6-10 day outlook /// 8-14 day outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I expect most in the southeast to get at least 50% of thier average snowfall in Feb/March. I'll be more surprised if that doesn't happen. Mother nature has a tendancy to balance things out and I beleive this year will be no exception. I just hopes she gets it over with before April. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I expect most in the southeast to get at least 50% of thier average snowfall in Feb/March. I'll be more surprised if that doesn't happen. Mother nature has a tendancy to balance things out and I beleive this year will be no exception. I just hopes she gets it over with before April. TW She is balancing things out. Last two winters vs this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I expect most in the southeast to get at least 50% of thier average snowfall in Feb/March. I'll be more surprised if that doesn't happen. Mother nature has a tendancy to balance things out and I beleive this year will be no exception. I just hopes she gets it over with before April. TW I agree with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I expect most in the southeast to get at least 50% of thier average snowfall in Feb/March. I'll be more surprised if that doesn't happen. Mother nature has a tendancy to balance things out and I beleive this year will be no exception. I just hopes she gets it over with before April. TW On what do you base this off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Surprised no one mentioned the train wreck that was the 18z. What a disaster that was in the LR...it wasn't that it was warm just verbatim it looked hilarious. :wacko: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Surprised no one mentioned the train wreck that was the 18z. What a disaster that was in the LR...it wasn't that it was warm just verbatim it looked hilarious. It's so depressing around here I would bet a lot of people stopped watching the models. I know I have stopped watching for a few days, I will start back up in a week or so to get a peak on Feb. Hopefully someone on the EC gets a good snow event, I don't even care if it's us, just anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Here's some good news that I mentioned a while back. Most blocking patterns in winter still tend to do us favors much more often than not. I looked at the years for blocking in Alaska or near Alaska (this one is odd so far northwest), and about a month later the Southeast usually had a winter storm. I couldn't find all the years, but looked at the nina years. It took about a month most of the time when there was an Ak block. Big lag time, but thats how the atmosphere works. I'm not committing to saying this year will feature something good in Feb, but odds are high enough. And climo argues against continuous non stop warmth from Nov through Feb. here. I've never seen it. (not counting 2 day cold snaps). So, the block may have occurred just in time...any later would push us close to early March, doable, but tougher for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Here's some good news that I mentioned a while back. Most blocking patterns in winter still tend to do us favors much more often than not. I looked at the years for blocking in Alaska or near Alaska (this one is odd so far northwest), and about a month later the Southeast usually had a winter storm. I couldn't find all the years, but looked at the nina years. It took about a month most of the time when there was an Ak block. Big lag time, but thats how the atmosphere works. I'm not committing to saying this year will feature something good in Feb, but odds are high enough. And climo argues against continuous non stop warmth from Nov through Feb. here. I've never seen it. (not counting 2 day cold snaps). So, the block may have occurred just in time...any later would push us close to early March, doable, but tougher for many. check email,let me know what you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 So the rubber and theory. Got to snap at some point,right? Thanks,Robert.....any good news at this point sounds great! Burger,I agree....on any given run it looks like the models threw up on themselves...who knows what the next one will show;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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