BIG FROSTY Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The actual charts are not in front of me yet but the description from Matt Rogers is not showing any cold anywhere in the Lower 48 after Week 1...certainly not in the SE... But Mr. Bob, JB says there's another SSW happening and it's stronger and will last longer!!! Feb will be cold/stormy. See what happened with this last SSW? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Going to be a lot of unused days even if it turns cold and stormy. Ton of water in the river system right now. A wet spring could be a nightmare for the hydrology folks at TVA. Going to need to move some water. On the other hand, I sure would like a summer where I don't have to water the garden every night. Mr. Bob, what are your thoughts about the ENSO? Are we going to triple dip La Nina or go to a weak Nino(that's my guess or neutral)? Hopefully weak niño! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 But Mr. Bob, JB says there's another SSW happening and it's stronger and will last longer!!! Feb will be cold/stormy. See what happened with this last SSW? lol When we have to hope for a SSW to save us you know winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 MLK DAY is Monday. we have to be like him and "Keep Hope Alive" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This is not banter but a model watching observation over the past 14 or so days. One run says cold, next warm, next mild, next warm, next cold, next warm (or flip the sequence with another model) .... and on and on. But heck, it's snowing in Blairsville right now and that wasn't even suggested 48 hours ago, and I'm progged at 28º tomorrow night whereas yesterday it was mid to upper-30's. The models have no clue what is going on, even short range, and I think it is because so many global variables are in play the math just doesn't work right now when the computers do their thing. Could be warm, could be cold, could be rain, could be dry, could be snow - but until there is some consistency between what the models are suggesting and what happens, looking at models as a "forecast" seems a bit questionable -- well, who knows what this crazy winter might do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Just for what it's worth, 0z GFS builds the ridge back over AK during the last part of its run but it's still warm over much of the East. You can, however, see the effects of that as colder air is pushing down further south toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 GFS looks really warm in the southern and eastern states around Day 10 through 15. Major southerly and sw flow over much of the area, with the trough in the eastern Pacific. It will change that far out, but certainly doesn't look too cold after next weeks cooldown. It shows 576 to near 582 heights right off shore SC/GA, 850 temps widespread +10 to +12. Don't see that much in January. If right, we'll be setting record high temps in the Southeast around that time frame. But like everything in that long range, its subject to big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 GFS looks really warm in the southern and eastern states around Day 10 through 15. Major southerly and sw flow over much of the area, with the trough in the eastern Pacific. It will change that far out, but certainly doesn't look too cold after next weeks cooldown. It shows 576 to near 582 heights right off shore SC/GA, 850 temps widespread +10 to +12. Don't see that much in January. If right, we'll be setting record high temps in the Southeast around that time frame. But like everything in that long range, its subject to big changes. Yeah, it looked UGLY! We were talking last night about things blooming and grass growing. By the looks of tonights 0z gfs, I'll be still cutting grass on Jan. 25th. At this point I'm just staying patient in hopes things will change in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 GFS looks really warm in the southern and eastern states around Day 10 through 15. Major southerly and sw flow over much of the area, with the trough in the eastern Pacific. It will change that far out, but certainly doesn't look too cold after next weeks cooldown. It shows 576 to near 582 heights right off shore SC/GA, 850 temps widespread +10 to +12. Don't see that much in January. If right, we'll be setting record high temps in the Southeast around that time frame. But like everything in that long range, its subject to big changes. At this rate, I'll be wearing t-shirts in late January as opposed to the previous winter where I had to bundle myself so much every time I went out. I think I saw temperatures around 70 for some at one point for highs so definitely a warm up. I fear about hearing folks breaking record high temperatures should it come to pass but it's way out there so we'll see if we get that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 well that may be too extreme but nothing is looking too cold for sure. Looks like next week the cold not get much below NC/TN line, atleast not for long, then the warm up begins and continues pretty much through the run. Already trees at my place are on the cusp of blooming. I saw a nice cherry tree in full bloom at one of the dr's. offices uptown today, with flowing purple petals strewn everywhere in the mulch beds. It's not uncommon to see daffodils and forsythia bloom now, it happens about once every 3 to 4 years to some degree but if we get the bermuda ridge to build in really good, we'll be seeing major spring growth by the end of the month. And you can bank on the cold to kill things off later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 still have honeybees and moths as well. Winter's been a no show so far, minus a couple cold days. Obviously I've blown my winter outlook as far as temps so far, unless Feb. comes in cold enough to erase Dec and probably Jan's positive departures. It would have to be unbelievably cold to erase those I think or even get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I'll admit, even though I thought we would get to be slightly below average overall for the Southeast, I'm beginning to think that perhaps I should have leaned more toward generally average to at least slightly above average in temperatures. This, of course, still leaves the question on whether or not we luck out with one good major winter storm and maybe 2 decent ones somewhere down the road to at least put us at or above average in snowfall but we would need a "rockin" February and early March to get something like that going. Just hope that the pattern changes for the better and doesn't continue the stubbornness like tonight's 0z GFS is depicting. Could turn colder than progged, could be warmer or a middle road. Who knows where it goes. I can remember during early December that we all hoped that the mid-late part of the month we would see it change to a more consistently cold look over the East and that didn't happen, which had us thinking that the first half of January would pull it off and again so far, nothing other than these nice cold shots that we have been getting and the two flurry events associated with them. Now it's pushed back somewhere between close to the end of this month and early February. Still plenty of time for things to change before the season itself is done but I have to be honest I'm a little worried but Ma Nature will do as she pleases I suppose. Not much else left to do but to just sit back and watch it all unfold. Models are already causing enough headaches around here, what with their wild swings in solutions and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Interesting....wonder what Roger Smith's curent evaluation for the rest of the winter is???? The guy has been on fire so far this winter. I still like Feb 15-25 for the best winter storm potential for the northeast U.S. ... my method being statistical, there are no new statistics to consider, so I just go through a rather simple two-step process of making a forecast and then studying the errors to see what that could tell me about the theory behind the statistics. While eastern North America has worked out quite well, I have some problems to study across parts of the west. If I just looked at it subjectively and took into account the ongoing discussions about stratospheric warming and related matters, I would say that February is most likely to play out as a more variable zonal type of month with some intervals of blocking that I would expect to be dominated by severe cold over Quebec and Labrador. There is a good snow pack up that way already in contrast to some other parts of subarctic Canada. Given a reasonable period of higher pressure in Greenland, we could see a much better set-up for winter storms developing at times in February. Fingers crossed that it will begin to change, because at the moment the 16-day GFS shows mostly intervals of cold/dry separated by mild/wet that would average out somewhere around zero to +2 anomaly-wise to the end of January. Anyway, from the "index values" that were generated for this forecast and after thinking about it again today, I would say expect maybe two or three decent snowfall events in February and one in March, from the pattern that is foreseen -- and a gradual rather than sudden arrival for spring, possibly a colder episode in April too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc87 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Its almost the middle of january and no WINTER storms just a couple snow showers for the foothills and mountains where these types of snows are ecpected. A lot of people read models and only talk about patterns favorable for snow or trying to sniff out any chance for snow instead of looking at the big picture. The big cold spell that looked like it might come down was probably just a relax in the pattern before it reloaded which it appears it does. Last year was good because we were just getting into la nina and in the neutral phase. So why this year would seem to have anymore potential beats me. I've come to terms that there will be no winter storms or any wwa outside the mountains and foothills. Feb might bring something but in feb we are threading the needle anyway and with this pattern u can just about write it off. I just don't see the point in getting excited over one model beause look we went from maybe an extreme arctic out break to above normal temps with maybe a couple cool downs. If a winter storms pops up ill let myself be suprised but until the ao nao and everything gets right I'm not going to be wishful thinking over models. Not being a weenie or trying to be negative just trying to keep things realistic for the folks that are cliff diving and for the ones that worked up over one model run because it shows frozen precip in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I'm typing this as I'm free falling off the cliff I just jumped off of, hope you guys enjoy rest of theeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 No fantasy on the Euro...maybe fantasy island!! Record warmth in 10 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 well we have plows ready to go now, I guess we need to get mowers ready to go as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Day 10 shows the 570 height line from LAX to DC, and 576 and 582 heights in the Southeast which is ridiculously warm for January 23. There isn't a single decent high pressure anywhere on the North American continent by day 10, they are all in Siberia, Russia and Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Day 10 shows the 570 height line from LAX to DC, and 576 and 582 heights in the Southeast which is ridiculously warm for January 23. There isn't a single decent high pressure anywhere on the North American continent by day 10, they are all in Siberia, Russia and Europe. Oh brother! When Robert is discouraged....Tidy bowl man...Here we come.....splooosh Hope against all hope that the 00Z runs are a fluke.....and who knows.....one day they show cold....one day its warm.....Long about Jan 25....I will get really worried....and if nothing looks favorable then.....its bring on Spring for me! You know things aren't looking good when you can't even sniff out a fantasy storm in the long range.....most winters they are a dime a dozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Day 10 shows the 570 height line from LAX to DC, and 576 and 582 heights in the Southeast which is ridiculously warm for January 23. There isn't a single decent high pressure anywhere on the North American continent by day 10, they are all in Siberia, Russia and Europe. I know right! Well, not anything can do about it; I cant think of two Winter Seasons that have been so starkly different as this year and last year have been in the Nashville area; I can say that if it is that warm in 10 days, trees will start to swell, I saw a Silver Maple last week that was starting to swell, hopefully we can get through the Spring with no hard freezes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The Euro has had the best handle on this pattern IMO. At least it has not been spinning up 10 day fantasy the last 60 days. Also the CPC has been spot on so far when they showed us back in late November that winter would be almost non-existent for us this year. We all should give them credit for a job well done so far. I am as disappointed as any with this winter. Hopefully there will be a quick surprise for us with an unexpected quick storm over the next 45 days. If you are up in the High Country today, enjoy today's brief taste of winter and the upslope! I am down with work in Charlotte so missing it. Temperatures 8 to 11 across Avery County this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I respect that quite a bit. Instead of holding onto an idea that just does not seem like it's going to happen he just admitted he was wrong. Kind of like one major snowstorm is not going to vindicate all the folks who forecast cold and stormy weather this winter. Sure it might get some folks to their seasonal totals to normal or close for snowfall but how we got there would be completely different from the forecast. Well done on his end for saying what he did. I agree. Yes, one huge monster storm would be nice, but I don't think that makes it a great winter overall. I don't even think last winter was great overall because it was so cold from December through February, and all we got out of it here were three snows. Yeah, that is nice, but there was so much potential for more, and most of the time it was just very cold and dry. All that cold was just wasted. That's not fun to me. I knew this winter would be in trouble because there was never talk of it having great potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 As I froecasted back in November on the Weather Bell site, this was always going to be a mild to warm winter with very little likelihood of snow in the bulk of the SE. Any cold we would receive would be of a very short transient nature and would be followed by much longer periods of mild/warm weather. I also will stand by my forecast of a very violent and changeable Spring starting in early March but extending for a shorter time period than normal, before the brutal heat and dryness of this coming summer descends on us. I look for this summer to rival 2010 in the heat with only the hope of a tropical system(s) to break the drought we will see in the summer and fall this year. It does seem more than a 50/50 chance of having a better winter next year with a neutral to slight El Nino ENSO coming on but way too early to be sure. At least the heating bills will allow us to compensate somewhat for the exorbitant cooling bills we will see this Summer. This will be a very uncomfortable and crop damaging summer heat and drought in Texas again this year, sorry guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It's the end of the innocence. It's over.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It's the end of the innocence. It's over.... What??? We got screwed??? And I didn't even know it OR enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATkeL Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It's the end of the innocence. It's over.... What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the goin' gets tough... The tough get goin'! Who's with me? Let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I agree. Yes, one huge monster storm would be nice, but I don't think that makes it a great winter overall. I don't even think last winter was great overall because it was so cold from December through February, and all we got out of it here were three snows. Yeah, that is nice, but there was so much potential for more, and most of the time it was just very cold and dry. All that cold was just wasted. That's not fun to me. I knew this winter would be in trouble because there was never talk of it having great potential. There was. Many mets talked about this winter either being average or slightly above average for temps and precip. They just busted, obviously. I'm still somewhat hopeful as we're not even through Janurary yet. However come about Feb 10th-15th if we're still seeing warmth on the LR with no threats I'll throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the goin' gets tough... The tough get goin'! Who's with me? Let's go! The Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 LOL ---- My bad....I forgot about Animal House Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Allen posted an update with his thoughts this morning: http://www.examiner....to-late-january .... we look to get into a very warm late January patter with highs well into the 60s by next weekend and possibly 70s the following week. I cant stand this weather in January, but it will certainly be great weather to get outdoors and golfing or do general outdoor activities. This warm weather pattern is caused by a strong +EPO phase and a continued +NAO. This allows for a monster trough in the Gulf of Alaska and a monster ridge across most of North America. Therefore the very warm pattern likely to last through at least late January ----------------- Will someone in NC even hit 80 degrees before end of January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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