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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion III


Rankin5150

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The -NAO showing up on the latest Euro is east-based and likely transitory- this along with last night's EC ensembles and the GFS ensembles would lend me to believe that it will help keep the NE and maybe Mid-Atlantic in play for wintry weather, but it may very well stay too warm here in the SE.

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The -NAO showing up on the latest Euro is east-based and likely transitory- this along with last night's EC ensembles and the GFS ensembles would lend me to believe that it will help keep the NE and maybe Mid-Atlantic in play for wintry weather, but it may very well stay too warm here in the SE.

We've got more of an issue over the Pacific now more than anything. Either way, the development of all of these cutoff lows across the globe is really going to complicate the forecasts.

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The -NAO showing up on the latest Euro is east-based and likely transitory- this along with last night's EC ensembles and the GFS ensembles would lend me to believe that it will help keep the NE and maybe Mid-Atlantic in play for wintry weather, but it may very well stay too warm here in the SE.

Dang it cheez, we realize that.........BUT we are trying to WILL a trend here. Play along. haha

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this run has most of the country pretty warm by day 10. It's an usual look with it agreeing in the short term to about 168 hours but then diverges, and thats to be expected. The GFS has a tendency to develop the New England system more I think, the ECMWF trended that way, so bottom line is the cold will initially stretch nw to MidAtlantic down to Tn/NC it appears next mid week and late week. After that is really hard to say, but I'm sure s/w will show up and ride that boundary, which could be anywhere from central Plains to MidAtlantic. I don't see much chance of the cold getting further south than I-40 all that much unless the eastern storm next week really bombs out and creates more of a trough in the east. It's possible.

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Still got it going at 192:

12zECMWF500mbHeightAnomalyNA192.gif

That blocking is worthless. Look at the area to the west of it. Look at the position of the PV. There's nothing favorable about that map. I mean, I guess it's better than a honking SE ridge, but honestly, I'd rather have that and not have to wear my jacket.

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We've got more of an issue over the Pacific now more than anything. Either way, the development of all of these cutoff lows across the globe is really going to complicate the forecasts.

Not to mention all of the "bombs"... those can really muddy up the model picture more than anything... this is especially true if there's one in the USA (though the mega-bomb between Japan and the Aleutians can't be helping much either)... I say wait 3 days before even thinking about taking models beyond 96 verbatim.

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That blocking is worthless. Look at the area to the west of it. Look at the position of the PV. There's nothing favorable about that map. I mean, I guess it's better than a honking SE ridge, but honestly, I'd rather have that and not have to wear my jacket.

Of course that's wortheless considering how the Pacific looked but that's what I feared would happen after the last two frames ran. Just wish the Alaskan ridge had not displaced itself so far west. It was still interesting to note nonetheless.

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That is one ugly, ugly looking Euro Day 10 -- whatever Pacific blocking we had is breaking down -- NAO going positive again. PNA negative.

The math is getting ugly for this winter -- it's like one of those football games where it's still midway through the third quarter, but you are down 3 or 4 scores. Long way to go .. but not really.

Soon, I'll be ready to declare this a "WidreWinter."

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That is one ugly, ugly looking Euro Day 10 -- whatever Pacific blocking we had is breaking down -- NAO going positive again. PNA negative.

The math is getting ugly for this winter -- it's like one of those football games where it's still midway through the third quarter, but you are down 3 or 4 scores. Long way to go .. but not really.

Soon, I'll be ready to declare this a "WidreWinter."

Since when?

ecmwfnaobiasm.png

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ecmwf is probably having a harder time with the pattern than the GFS. Its daily runs are a testament to this, plus the fact that many studies I read mentioned the fact that model had issues during the development phase of the blocking. But once it is formed it supposedly gets much better with predictability in the flow.

Here's the last few runs of the model, valid roughly same time frame. You can see it doesn't handle the eastern Siberia blocking the same each run, nor does it know what to do in the Atlantic or Europe, with major swings run to run there.

post-38-0-07689500-1326397729.jpg

post-38-0-69401700-1326397742.jpg

post-38-0-11249900-1326397756.jpg

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Since when?

I don't know or care how those indices work or are measured. I know there are a million different defintions of an -NAO and don't want to get into that debate. But I do know enough to say that Day 10 map is moving the WRONG direction re: the Greenland blocking/-NAO that the models have been trying to show.

post-1293-0-42687900-1326401162.gif

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I don't know or care how those indices work or are measured. I know there are a million different defintions of an -NAO and don't want to get into that debate. But I do know enough to say that Day 10 map is moving the WRONG direction re: the Greenland blocking/-NAO that the models have been trying to show.

I'm willing to reserve judgment until ten days from now :guitar: . We should really make a note of this just to see how it all plays out ten days from now. I'm with you it doesn't look good at all now with so many models looking like crap in the LR....but the fact that they all keep having a different look even in the short term with the vort energy at 500mb tells me that we can't put faith in a good solution or a bad one. Just look at the last 3 runs of the NAM and what they do with the energy out west around 72 hours. It doesn't exactly exude confidence.

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Although not as pronounced as the 0Z run, the12Z Euro is still trying to develop Greenland blocking at day 10. That is still a positive, in my book, even if the rest of the pattern does not cooperate. Perhaps Greenland blocking will develop and sustain itself beyond 10 days??? Remeber the models did sniff out the AK block, more or less, from beyond the 10 day range.

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Looks to me like the -NAO the Euro keeps showing (which is what it's been doing on and off for a while) is showing a storm moving into eastern Canada, which pumps up heights over Greenland. Of course, the ridging moves out quickly and is replaced by lower heights again. This has the effect of making the index lower, but it is far from a block (outside of the more easr-based block on last night's outlier run), and it is far from anything that will help us get drastically colder, more sustained cold, and/or a storm track suppressed far enough to the south to do any of us any good.

A transitory, east-based, or Atlantic thumb ridge styled -NAO is not going to be any sort of a game changer around here, particularly when the Pacific looks as bad as it does. Who knows if what the model is predicting is right though.

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But if you look at the progression from Days 7-10, it is clear to me the block is subsiding -- either sliding east or being squeezed out.

Although not as pronounced as the 0Z run, the12Z Euro is still trying to develop Greenland blocking at day 10. That is still a positive, in my book, even if the rest of the pattern does not cooperate. Perhaps Greenland blocking will develop and sustain itself beyond 10 days??? Remeber the models did sniff out the AK block, more or less, from beyond the 10 day range.

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Not surprisingly, you said it better than I.

Looks to me like the -NAO the Euro keeps showing (which is what it's been doing on and off for a while) is showing a storm moving into eastern Canada, which pumps up heights over Greenland. Of course, the ridging moves out quickly and is replaced by lower heights again. This has the effect of making the index lower, but it is far from a block (outside of the more easr-based block on last night's outlier run), and it is far from anything that will help us get drastically colder, more sustained cold, and/or a storm track suppressed far enough to the south to do any of us any good.

A transitory, east-based, or Atlantic thumb ridge styled -NAO is not going to be any sort of a game changer around here, particularly when the Pacific looks as bad as it does. Who knows if what the model is predicting is right though.

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But if you look at the progression from Days 7-10, it is clear to me the block is subsiding -- either sliding east or being squeezed out.

Yeah, you're right. But were the models trying to do the same thing when they first started sniffing out the AK block? It's been so long my memory might be off, but I seem to recall they were wishy washy (in day 10 range) at first on the that feature. Anyway, if so that obviously does not mean the same will happen in Greenland, but it is something to keep hope alive for now. :)

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