burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 When does 12z gfs run? 11:30? Check out this post NGA it will give you a lot of information: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29651-newbie-reference/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 meh at 108 energy is sheering out. Looks like as of now going to be a run of the mill cold frontal passage...we'll see where it goes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 12z is going back to more of it's 18z look from yesterday in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I think the most interesting thing to follow in the coming days (other than the light snows possible from two systems, though primarily in the mountains) will be the NAO. Maybe the Euro from last night is onto something. I know it has a tendency to overdo ridging, but developing a -NAO changes the game completely. The ridging begins at 168, so not too far away. I have noticed in previous runs also trying to build ridging, but never quite gets there. If we can develop a block there and have it also retrograde to the west a bit, we might be in business sometime toward the end of the month and into February. I know this is reaching for straws here, but it is the Euro. Even though the ensembles don't agree on the blocking, they do build some transient ridging it appears. I can envision a scenerio where if that happens (and at this point it's a big if), we could have a lot of cold in most of north america with the potential for fun and games. I guess I am going to remain an optimist to the end, but when you love winter weather, it's what you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks to me like the Pacific blocking is different on this run vs. 0z -- building more SE-ward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The block builds right over Alaska by end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Again, tonight's model runs definitely show just how "uncertain" the GFS and Euro are w/ the upcoming pattern - if indeed a computer program can be uncertain. Euro has a pretty amazing -NAO. I'll be interested, as we all will, to see if it holds to that on the 12z run. I do think it shows that the pattern is changing, and that until it is in place, we really don't know how the block(s) are going behave. Good luck to those in the mountains tonight. Should be good show. Euro upper air at 240 from the 0z run almost had a mid to late March type of look to it with some major cutoff lows over the eastern hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks to me like the pattern is going to favoring troughing and more cold sagging further south next week. We'll have the warm up early next week, then the tight thermal gradient sags south after the cold front and system in the Lakes passes by. After that is what I would key on, because there will be a few systems lined up to come inland the Northwest down to northern California that will ride the boundary across teh country, and the models will have a hard time finding those in this tight gradient. Generally northwest flow, with a tight gradient with a big transition across the upper south to the northern states, roughly Tn-NC is the colder sector with much warm sector increasing southward. The trend here is whats important and if the systems in the east amp up more , that would push the cold further south. Then immediately there is something in the GFS coming across the middle Plains to the Tn Valley and Carolinas with cold air in place. Who knows where the boundary will be, but thats where the storm track looks for now, with snow on the north side of the track, rain on south side. Any of these systems could wrap up in the Northeast, which would help out the east as far as staying cold. Also the model hints at ridging in southern or eastern Greenland and a big system developing in the Southeast and east coast late. Obviously wouldn't trust the details but the idea is that the cold is going to be in the east more than not, and the whole airmass looks to be situated further south than thought just a couple days ago, with no big western trough/eastern ridge...that looks very unlikely the way the pattern is setup on last couple of runs of both GFS and ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Its a complicated, rather unusual flow globally. No wonder we get pretty big changes run to run. Any system coming from the northwest could be a culprit for strong development esp after middle of next week. The good news for some atleast is the airmass in Canada looks like it will want to press further southward now , much more so than just a cople days ago when the models held it at the US/Canada border for most of the 15 days or so. Wouldn't suprise me to see a very strong amped system somewhere on the East coast start showing up, possibly in the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Robert, Good posts about the upcoming pattern and all the chaos and big run to run swings. What is your opinion of the ridging that was shown in Greenland per last nights Euro? Could the Euro op be onto something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I was just looking at the GFS 500mb height anomalies for the latest run. Nothing moves. All the blocks stay pretty much where they are. I just find it hard to believe that there isn't any motion to them at all until toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Its a complicated, rather unusual flow globally. No wonder we get pretty big changes run to run. Any system coming from the northwest could be a culprit for strong development esp after middle of next week. The good news for some atleast is the airmass in Canada looks like it will want to press further southward now , much more so than just a cople days ago when the models held it at the US/Canada border for most of the 15 days or so. Wouldn't suprise me to see a very strong amped system somewhere on the East coast start showing up, possibly in the South. Robert, w/out a true 50/50 low what are the concerns w/ lake cutters or apps runners? Something I noticed on the 12z gfs is everything wants to cut up through the apps or lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Here's the ridging now But at 180 hours, the east ridge starts to develop a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm really trying but I just don't see enough in the models to feel better about the winter. There are just way too many qualifiers to nearly everything that is being talked about. So I'm in the camp of until the pattern we are in breaks, I'm going to be a hard sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm really trying but I just don't see enough in the models to feel better about the winter. There are just way too many qualifiers to nearly everything that is being talked about. So I'm in the camp of until the pattern we are in breaks, I'm going to be a hard sell. It's just so crappy that the models are giving us a, "wait and see" approach with them going all over the place. Euro should be an interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It's just so crappy that the models are giving us a, "wait and see" approach with them going all over the place. Euro should be an interesting run. I'm with Marietta, what ever the Euro shows (good or bad) you can't believe it......This is crazy, I'm not sure if I've ever seen the models this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Well no freezing/frozen precip but here in nw ms behind the front the airmass is pretty stout. Full sun now temps holding in the upper 30's. Colder now than the low last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm with Marietta, what ever the Euro shows (good or bad) you can't believe it......This is crazy, I'm not sure if I've ever seen the models this bad. By "this bad" you apparently mean "not showing what I want". The models have only been bad in the sense that they've occasionally shown a cold pattern developing in 8-10 days, only to (correctly) retract it as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 So I have't been following the models in depth, but from what I can gather is that it is going to be above avg to avg day(s) 11-15 on the GFS. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/Day11-15Comparisons.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm with Marietta, what ever the Euro shows (good or bad) you can't believe it......This is crazy, I'm not sure if I've ever seen the models this bad. By "this bad" you apparently mean "not showing what I want". The models have only been bad in the sense that they've occasionally shown a cold pattern developing in 8-10 days, only to (correctly) retract it as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 By "this bad" you apparently mean "not showing what I want". The models have only been bad in the sense that they've occasionally shown a cold pattern developing in 8-10 days, only to (correctly) retract it as we get closer. Occasionally?? They've been flipping back and forth since November. Ussually you can trust general pattern depictions at least out to 8-10 days, but not right now. And your right about "not showing what I want", all I have to do is wait for the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I can't agree about the general idea of the models being bad this season. I think the idea that they are performing horribly is a tad inflated. The models have yet to show us a good storm and we have yet to get one. The models have shown a generally warm pattern and that's what we have received in the south. I just can't wrap my mind around this idea that the models have been virtually worthless. Sure they have missed an occasional quick cold shot but that imo does not equate to them being horrible. Lots of the 850mb and 500mb departures have worked out pretty well, predicted many days in advance 5-10 or more. About a week ago the GFS suggested that the ridge in Alaska would end up more over Siberia, well it got that idea right too. Does anyone have model verification they can show comparing this winter to last? I have a strong suspicion that the data we would see would not suggest the models performing horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 If we were all warm weather lovers here Ithink a lot of people would be singing a different tune as to the model consistencies (or inconsistencies) we have been seeing. More often than not the models are throwing a warm look to them through most of the runs, with a cold look every once and a while. it's pretty consistently showing warmth, but not consistently showing cold and storms. When have the models really been all that consistent outside of 5-7 days out? inside 5 days its been pretty good with placements and showing us basically whats going to happen. outside that its been showing warm more often than not. and once and a while has a cold look. so chances are, long range, its gonna be warmer than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks like the Raleigh area will be back up into the 50's by Tuesday and Wednesday. There's no precipitation through the middle of next week, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The Euro run looks similar through the mid part of next week compared with GFS. A cold front approaches Tuesday, so Mon-Tue the east and southeast warms up and showers on Tuesday, but that system tightens up in New England and pulls cold down to around northern Oklahoma to SC, with ever increasing gradient to the cold further north. A piece of the mother high breaks off from northwest Canada after the front comes through, meanwhile its a clash in the eastern Pacific. Here is where the models don't know what to do downstream, since its an unusual setup. Offshore California there are pumping heights, and then that clashes with the northerly flow coming down from the Gulf of Alaska, so there's a strong convergence there, and hence the breeding ground of storm tracks around the Northwest. Like I said earlier any system can strengthen, this run also has the Eastern Canada system becoming very strong and at 168 it may help build some ridging in southern Greenland, meanwhile basically northwest flow exists from the pac NW to NC through 168, which closely matches GFS. South of there, not so cold so there is quite atemp gradient going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Some ridging showing up in the Atlantic off Greenland at hr 144, let's see if it continues into something more or is minimal and transient (per prior runs). More pronounced ridging in Greenland at 168. Anxious to see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Some ridging showing up in the Atlantic off Greenland at hr 144, let's see if it continues into something more or is minimal and transient (per prior runs). More pronounced ridging in Greenland at 168. Anxious to see where this goes. Yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I can't agree about the general idea of the models being bad this season. I think the idea that they are performing horribly is a tad inflated. The models have yet to show us a good storm and we have yet to get one. The models have shown a generally warm pattern and that's what we have received in the south. I just can't wrap my mind around this idea that the models have been virtually worthless. Sure they have missed an occasional quick cold shot but that imo does not equate to them being horrible. Lots of the 850mb and 500mb departures have worked out pretty well, predicted many days in advance 5-10 or more. About a week ago the GFS suggested that the ridge in Alaska would end up more over Siberia, well it got that idea right too. Does anyone have model verification they can show comparing this winter to last? I have a strong suspicion that the data we would see would not suggest the models performing horribly. Exclusive "modelology" in itself is faulty anyway. Having said that, If we were to just look at GFS runs over the last 3 months for example, I tend to agree with you that it's really difficult to conclude that it hasn't been pretty close to it's general projection with temps/precip etc. It has had hiccups that suggest polar opposite outcomes, but generally it seems to come back into line somewhat close to it's original idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Trend over the past few runs has been to not drop as much troughing along the west coast (underneath the closed AK ridge)....so not seeing as much ridging in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This run looks warmer than GFS after the 168 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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