griteater Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It has the polar vortex centered just north of Hudson Bay much larger and stronger this run (compared to the 12z)....it's trying to flex its muscles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 GFS just doesn't know what to do with this pattern. You'd think it would make up its mind just this once. I'ts like you get 2-maybe 3 runs in a row of some minimal continuity, then switch gets flipped. I thought since last weekend if we could just get to Friday and get the storm thats just now exiting our area to get northbound, maybe the models would have a better grip or idea where to head med/long range. Time will tell. I'm just glad the flood watch/warnings have been cancelled for the moment. I'm talking PAC (pacific) FLOOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The key to if we get cold in the east (speaking for Southeast/Tn Valley-Carolinas) is how the eastern Pacific behaves. Sometimes the models develop a ridge there, which helps create digging troughs in the east. Too bad the models won't see that until its within a few days. Already this run of th GFS sees it around 144 hours, which gets us cold mid and late next week again, which is much colder than earlier runs. The pacific and all the s/w coming in will probably be handled poorly and makes forecasting hard. This run also develops a southern wave in Texas, affter another amplifying ridge around day 9 or 10 , which would surely fit the pattern that looks like what happens in this overall flow. Anything is possible from sw flow to nw flow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This is a much colder and better overall solution tonight. This is the trend you wanted to see if you are a snow weenie in the SE. This is the hardest pattern for the models to diagnose. Special thanks to Robert for doing the play by play this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The key to if we get cold in the east (speaking for Southeast/Tn Valley-Carolinas) is how the eastern Pacific behaves. Sometimes the models develop a ridge there, which helps create digging troughs in the east. Too bad the models won't see that until its within a few days. Already this run of th GFS sees it around 144 hours, which gets us cold mid and late next week again, which is much colder than earlier runs. The pacific and all the s/w coming in will probably be handled poorly and makes forecasting hard. This run also develops a southern wave in Texas, affter another amplifying ridge around day 9 or 10 , which would surely fit the pattern that looks like what happens in this overall flow. Anything is possible from sw flow to nw flow here. Its not a good thing for forecasting but i admit its exciting because when hope is lost one day it changes the next. Just shows the unpredictability in this pattern and a luck snow may work out sho nuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Summary of the 0z GFS: For now, that is....Would love to see this trend continue in future runs and again, once this system departs completely, it may become a little more clearer for next week regarding what happens but so far, this definitely beats the previous trends we saw earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This is a much colder and better overall solution tonight. This is the trend you wanted to see if you are a snow weenie in the SE. This is the hardest pattern for the models to diagnose. Special thanks to Robert for doing the play by play this evening. Its not a good thing for forecasting but i admit its exciting because when hope is lost one day it changes the next. Just shows the unpredictability in this pattern and a luck snow may work out sho nuff! well overall I still don't like the looks of things but you can't rule out something traveling to your south with the west to nw flow next week. The models could switch back and forth, don't know but they keep having the Gulf of Alaska low/vortex. It leaves temporarily but comes back in the mid and long term. And no -NAO to be seen yet. Only good news is it doesn't look overly warm for any length of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wow what a change from model to model. Not getting to excited but this is way better looking than earlier. GFS will drive someone crazy! Also thanks for everyone's analysis on the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 You guys looking at the same 00z GFS I'm looking at? What I see is a transient cold shot and then a ****ty pattern redeveloping with troughing in Alaska and along the west coast. Not sure how that's a great run by any stretch. I guess not having it show end-to-end blowtorch is now the standard for a good run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 You guys looking at the same 00z GFS I'm looking at? What I see is a transient cold shot and then a ****ty pattern redeveloping with troughing in Alaska and along the west coast. Not sure how that's a great run by any stretch. I guess not having it show end-to-end blowtorch is now the standard for a good run? Looking at this and this. This run broke consistency though so it may not be right on the eastern trough, but you're right, it's transient, like all the troughs have been. Kind of interesting that tomorrows incoming deep trough has got colder and deeper, even with a little snow likely in Tn, Al, Ga, and the mountains. That also wasn't shown too well just a couple days ago. Its these day to day changes that pop up that make forecasting fun, and not a guarantee of anything. I suspect the same thing will keep on happening next week and into the next weekend when we will have something pop up to watch in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Don't look now, the new Euro has a pretty impressive -NAO forming after 180 hours.....I will reserve judgment of course, we will see what the ensembles show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Don't look now, the new Euro has a pretty impressive -NAO forming after 180 hours.....I will reserve judgment of course, we will see what the ensembles show. Figured as much it would try to show something of interest when it first popped up at 168. Nice to see but I too question as to whether or not this is something that shows up in future runs, or on anything else for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Ridge continues to nose into Greenland at 216 and still holding strong. EDIT: 240 it keeps going but to be honest it really bothers me that it doesn't have ridging on the other side in a good spot and the cold air that's sitting up there in Canada never really dives south and east at the end but instead just meanders around with a good chunk of warmth spreading into the central portion of the U.S. Perhaps it will improve later but that was a nice -NAO sig. it had there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Both the GFS and Euro did make changes in the mid-range, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 this run of ecmwf just goes to show how the models flip flop quickly, and nothing is certain beyond even 5 days. It looks similar to GFS regarding the progression of next week, and pulls the cold down in the east more, then quickly has a system (weak) come at the midAtlantic from around NC northward with cold air in place, meanwhile look at the differences between yesterdays run and todays. This looks alot different in Europe and the Atlantic and a nice ridge in southern and Eastern Greenland. With such a tight temperature gradient next week, if youre near the thermal gradient one run will give you -12 at 850 and the next run you could be +6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Last nights 00z run... Same time as the image below this one. Tonights 00z run, same time as above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 ALL IS NOT LOST! THERE IS HOPE ON THE HORIZON! That about sums it up....oh and don't put too much trust in any SW beyond 5 days....Robert has said this all along and this rule is still in force. Have a great day 12Z here we come! Will it be or "Lookin for love in all the wrong places" Cheez...when you have a chance, can you enlighten us on the 00Z EURO ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I see breast, maybe a little lopsided but still... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Operational Euro is much more pronounced with the Greenland ridging that develops than most of the ensemble members, but most members do at least briefly build some ridging there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Again, tonight's model runs definitely show just how "uncertain" the GFS and Euro are w/ the upcoming pattern - if indeed a computer program can be uncertain. Euro has a pretty amazing -NAO. I'll be interested, as we all will, to see if it holds to that on the 12z run. I do think it shows that the pattern is changing, and that until it is in place, we really don't know how the block(s) are going behave. Good luck to those in the mountains tonight. Should be good show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Again, tonight's model runs definitely show just how "uncertain" the GFS and Euro are w/ the upcoming pattern - if indeed a computer program can be uncertain. Euro has a pretty amazing -NAO. I'll be interested, as we all will, to see if it holds to that on the 12z run. I do think it shows that the pattern is changing, and that until it is in place, we really don't know how the block(s) are going behave. Good luck to those in the mountains tonight. Should be good show. We need the block in Russia to shift to Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Brutal.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Brutal.. . Just my two cents...I'm not really to worried about any LR on either model based on last nights run. If by next week they are still showing that then I'll start getting down but literally anything is on the table until the models get a good handle on what is going on aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Operational Euro is much more pronounced with the Greenland ridging that develops than most of the ensemble members, but most members do at least briefly build some ridging there. Thanks Matt. What a crazy ride this will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The models seem to be all over the place. I don't see how we can depend on them at all this winter. We've been in this patter of it being warm, raining, cooling down for a couple of days, then warming back up again, raining, cooling down, and repeat. Until we actually see that stop, I don't think we can believe the models at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3monkeymom Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Is it possible that the GFS is overdoing the SE ridge in the LR? I'm still very much an amateur when it comes to interpreting models, but the last frames of the 06z look weird to me. It's almost like the ridge is placed geographically, using straight Nina climo. There's also a deep trough in the middle of the CONUS and into Southern Mexico, but what's there to instigate a cold dump like that? All I can see on the big picture is the same GOA vortex that I thought was preventing the real cold from penetrating very far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Brutal.. . Actually, this is brutal: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 When does 12z gfs run? 11:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 When does 12z gfs run? 11:30? Started rolling around 10:20 this morning http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 With the energy out west this run of the GFS could get interesting. It's out to 90 let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.