Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion III

[dsaur]

A normal SE winter does not have anomalies of over +5 for the month of December and the first third of January. It just doesn't, this winter had been way above average for many portions of the southeast. This could change but I hear so many keep saying this is a normal SE winter and the data just does not support that claim. Please don't think I'm picking on you, this was just the most recent time I've seen it said. There are plenty others who keep saying this and I think they are just as wrong.

Lol, Marietta, my friend, if you go by data in the Ga. you'll be chewing off your leg before long Or you'll need Dr. Larrys Ice Cream Climo Zen to see you through. I don't know anyone who knows more about Ga. climo than Larry, but he is always cool as a cucumber, and when he says winter is over because of data, I'll believe it. Until then I'm smooth as silk, and waiting

Data says I'll see an inch or two of snow a year, but normal to me is 5 minutes of sleet in Nov. and misery the rest of the winter. Normal is super cold and very, very dry, or very, very wet and mild. It can be 70's all Jan. and down near 0 in late Feb. and get you your normals. You have to go with the flow, and what you've seen during the years you've been watching, and trust me this isn't the worst winter by far, and it has a long way to go. Sorry, I know I'm one who's been saying it seems normal to me, but after 50 plus years of watching, it seems about normal to me, lol. T

[LithiaWx]

Firstly, why is December considered a month to collect so much "winter data" when it only carries 11 days of actual "winter"? How above average were those 11 days last month (I really haven't looked to be honest)? Also, temps recorded at - GSP for example - never ever match what many of us record at our home locations. Right now, my OBS reads 61 degrees, yet the Davis (where I am) reads 55 degrees. I have a constant 5-7 degree difference between my actual and reported/recorded temps most days out of the year. Averages may not always tell the whole story.

I guess I'm just not blown away by a 5 degree difference (average). Data can be used to make all kinds of cases, but experience is a better teacher. The only thing that seems odd to many of us is the above average rain (at least here in the GSP area). It would seem that 2009 and 2010 were far more departed from normal than this - these first 3 weeks of winter - have been.

BTW, do you not find it slightly curious that you often seem to discredit something "so many" people agree on? Just wondering...

Firstly according to any met you ask Winter started on December 1st. As to your second question I like playing devils advocate and most of the time there is another side to the coin, I just like presenting it. FWIW a +5 anomaly for an entire month is nothing to sneeze at and is a large departure. You will also find people in the forum who agree that this winter has been awfully warm and not your normal run of the mill winter in the south.

[Bevo]

December 1st is the first day of Meteorological winter therefore is carries 31 days of data.

Touché

[MotoWeatherman]

Touché

I'm not intending to be mean or anything it's just that when winter is over and all the data is calculated to determine how much above or below normal it was, December 1st thru Feb 28th (29th this year) will be the date range used.

[Bevo]

Firstly according to any met you ask Winter started on December 1st. As to your second question I like playing devils advocate and most of the time there is another side to the coin, I just like presenting it. FWIW a +5 anomaly for an entire month is nothing to sneeze at and is a large departure. You will also find people in the forum who agree that this winter has been awfully warm and not your normal run of the mill winter in the south.

I realize the Decemebr 1st thing now. I asked the question because I truely didn't know that. Thank you.

Still, how far of a departure were 2009 and 2010?

As for the last statement, I agree with you. I usually specify that I'm speaking of GSP. If I don't, it's because I failed to remember to. Devils advocate, though, doesn't just mean telling people they're wrong. I'm certainly not telling you that you are wrong.

[franklin NCwx]

I'm not intending to be mean or anything it's just that when winter is over and all the data is calculated to determine how much above or below normal it was, December 1st thru Feb 28th (29th this year) will be the date range used.

Why do they.not include march?

[MotoWeatherman]

Why do they.not include march?

I'm sure there is a better answer out there but I would assume because they are going with 3 month seasons.

[buckeyefan1]

Why do they.not include march?

Mar-May = Spring

[burgertime]

I'm sure there is a better answer out there but I would assume because they are going with 3 month seasons.

Meteorological seasons are reckoned by temperature, with summer being the hottest quarter of the year and winter the coldest quarter of the year. Using this reckoning, the Roman calendar began the year and the spring season on the first of March, with each season occupying three months. In 1780 the Societas Meteorologica Palatina, an early international organization for meteorology, defined seasons as groupings of three whole months. Ever since, professional meteorologists all over the world have used this definition.^[7] Therefore, in meteorology for the Northern hemisphere, spring begins on 1 March, summer on 1 June, autumn on 1 September, and winter on 1 December.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Season

[LithiaWx]

I realize the Decemebr 1st thing now. I asked the question because I truely didn't know that. Thank you.

Still, how far of a departure were 2009 and 2010?

As for the last statement, I agree with you. I usually specify that I'm speaking of GSP. If I don't, it's because I failed to remember to. Devils advocate, though, doesn't just mean telling people they're wrong. I'm certainly not telling you that you are wrong.

I'll do a better job not being so abrasive. Part of the problem is that's just my personality and I honestly mean no harm to anyone. Most people who know me from the last two years realize that. It is something I'm aware of and will try to work on not telling people they are wrong as much.

As for your second question here is KATL's departures.

Dec 09 -3.1

Jan 10 -4.2

Feb 10 -7.1

Dec 10 -7.1

Jan 11 -2.5

Feb 11 +3.3

I'll try and stay more on topic sorry for throwing us off track guys.

[burgertime]

I'll do a better job not being so abrasive. Part of the problem is that's just my personality and I honestly mean no harm to anyone. Most people who know me from the last two years realize that. It is something I'm aware of and will try to work on not telling people they are wrong as much.

As for your second question here is KATL's departures.

Dec 09 -3.1

Jan 10 -4.2

Feb 10 -7.1

Dec 10 -7.1

Jan 11 -2.5

Feb 11 +3.3

I'll try and stay more on topic sorry for throwing us off track guys.

I guess again my question is, if you use 99 - 08 will you end up with an average more in line with this year when it's all said and done? Using 09 and 10 as a benchmark is extremely misleading.

[Batman]

I've lived in Georgia for 20 years which means 20 winters. Many of them were snowless IMBY. In fact 2002-3 to 2006-7 gave 5 consecutive years of no snow. I have seen Bernuda grass grow in January. I've seen roses blooming at Christmas. Strangely enough, one of the mildest winters I have experienced 2001-2 gave me my biggest snow accumulation in 20 years (7") on January 2. The following winter 2002-3 was very cold, but MBY received no snow. I agree that this winter has been very average to what I have experienced in the past. I think the last 2 years have truly scewed expectations for many. It appears this winter will probably end up milder than average, maybe much milder. However, I would not be surprised to see things come together to give us a week or two of real threats and maybe a hit or two. In the mean time, hasn't the rain been nice?

[LithiaWx]

I guess again my question is, if you use 99 - 08 will you end up with an average more in line with this year when it's all said and done? Using 09 and 10 as a benchmark is extremely misleading.

I don't know how to get that information. I assume the numbers that are used are the 1981-2010 average. The only reason I gave 09 and 10 was because he asked and I had easy access to them.

[Bevo]

I'll do a better job not being so abrasive. Part of the problem is that's just my personality and I honestly mean no harm to anyone. Most people who know me from the last two years realize that. It is something I'm aware of and will try to work on not telling people they are wrong as much.

As for your second question here is KATL's departures.

Dec 09 -3.1

Jan 10 -4.2

Feb 10 -7.1

Dec 10 -7.1

Jan 11 -2.5

Feb 11 +3.3

I'll try and stay more on topic sorry for throwing us off track guys.

I've told you more than once that I dig your input...

Feb 10 & Dec 11 - It felt that significant.

That glaring Feb of 2011 just pops out, like a clear and tangible moment in time when the pattern pulled a 180 and brought us here.

[DaculaWeather]

Does anyone have any data for the wInter starting December 2003 through March 2004? Was there. La Nina then? If I am not mistaken, that winter sucked except for the one big snow (one of the CLT areas biggest snowstorms ever) in the last week of Feb 2004. That is all I remember. I guess I am am trying to figure out any winters that correlate to this one. As for people jumping the train on this winter already?? Are you serious? Please folks...we have PLENTY of time. For example: at the close of winter in 1958, the Charlotte, NC area, along with a LOT of other SE areas had back to back to back to back snowstorms almost weekly!!

My Mother-in-Law always talks abOut how that winter sucked until March! Just food for thought to all the "cliff jumpers". LOL

Start here. You'll see the years across the top. I've got maps and charts for each day since 2003.

http://www.daculaweather.com/surface_maps_2003.php

[Bevo]

I guess again my question is, if you use 99 - 08 will you end up with an average more in line with this year when it's all said and done? Using 09 and 10 as a benchmark is extremely misleading.

I asked that question regarding 2009 and 2010 because it seemed that those years were larger departures from normal than this year which seems to be the case. Just to the colder side.

[burgertime]

I don't know how to get that information. I assume the numbers that are used are the 1981-2010 average. The only reason I gave 09 and 10 was because he asked and I had easy access to them.

Here are the average temps for Winter in GA according to NOAA I've included March

200012,40.4

200101,43.4

200102,53.7

200103,53.8

200112,52.8

200201,48.1

200202,48.4

200203,57.0

200212,45.6

200301,42.4

200302,49.1

200303,59.1

200312,44.4

200401,45.2

200402,46.0

200403,59.1

200412,46.7

200501,49.4

200502,50.1

200503,53.4

200512,44.6

200601,51.7

200602,47.2

200603,56.0

200612,51.9

200701,49.1

200702,46.3

200703,60.0

200712,52.7

200801,44.8

200802,50.8

200803,55.0

200812,51.6

200901,46.2

200902,47.5

200903,56.3

200912,46.2

201001,41.4

201002,41.5

201003,51.4

201012,39.5

201101,41.8

201102,51.0

201103,57.8

201112,51.5

[burgertime]

I don't know how to get that information. I assume the numbers that are used are the 1981-2010 average. The only reason I gave 09 and 10 was because he asked and I had easy access to them.

Putting the numbers I found in Excel it breaks down like this since 2000

Dec Avg (including 2011) - 47.3

Jan Avg (minus 2011) - 45.7

Feb Avg (minus 2011) - 48.3

Mar Avg (minus 2011) -56.2

Highest temps since 2000 per month for GA

Dec - 52.8 (01) 52.7 (07) The average for 2011 was 51.5 which ranks 5th warmest since Dec of 99

Jan - 51.7 (05) 49.4 (04) 49.1 (06)

Feb - 53.7 (00) 50.8 (07) 51 (10)

March (59.1) (02, 03) 57.8 (10)

Data was pulled from here:

http://www.ncdc.noaa...2&state=9&div=0

[Thrasher Fan]

Looks like the 18z run digs the cold air a bit further west on this run so far.

[burgertime]

LR 18z is a disaster it looks like a train wreck. It has what I would guess is record cold in the baja of Mexico plus a few inches of snow there.

[POWERSTROKE]

LR 18z is a disaster it looks like a train wreck. It has what I would guess is record cold in the baja of Mexico plus a few inches of snow there.

almost useless to even read it. Just depresses everybody

[NGA WINTER]

Burgertime? You think there is a chance that the models are having a hard time with a Pattern change? Can a system change the outlook of the models? I was reading where someone said that a storm could change a pattern?

[Southern Track]

LR 18z is a disaster it looks like a train wreck. It has what I would guess is record cold in the baja of Mexico plus a few inches of snow there.

Past a week, it looks like my nephew programmed the data in that run. It's all over the place.

[burgertime]

Burgertime? You think there is a chance that the models are having a hard time with a Pattern change? Can a system change the outlook of the models? I was reading where someone said that a storm could change a pattern?

I'm kind of the wrong person to ask that question I have very limited knowledge. Do I think they are having issues? Well the 18z def. is in this run I would think. However the 12z runs looked like reasonable solutions given the setup. Time will tell on the pattern change but the one we want as of now doesn't look to be coming this week or next. As for if a storm can change the pattern? It lends a helping hand to a pattern change but a lot has to go on in the upper atmosphere apart from a storm....an expert can correct me if I'm wrong.

[pcbjr]

Won't clog the server or clutter things with pictures, but the CPC sure isn't giving any hope whatsoever.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/

See 6 - 10 and 8 -14 day maps.

[Tacoma]

I'm sure there is a better answer out there but I would assume because they are going with 3 month seasons.

yea we've had some of our biggest snowstorms in March and even a few the first week of April.

[Cold Rain]

Won't clog the server or clutter things with pictures, but the CPC sure isn't giving any hope whatsoever.

http://www.cpc.ncep....ucts/forecasts/

See 6 - 10 and 8 -14 day maps.

They don't show any light at the end of the tunnel. But neither does any model, I guess.

[Carvers Gap]

Won't clog the server or clutter things with pictures, but the CPC sure isn't giving any hope whatsoever.

http://www.cpc.ncep....ucts/forecasts/

See 6 - 10 and 8 -14 day maps.

Saw that as well. I'm glad you posted that. I'm still not sold on the upcoming pattern being very warm - though there are certainly more signs pointing to the mini-roast than not. I really want to see how the pattern looks once it's in place. I do not think we will go this entire winter w/out seeing a good amount of winter weather somewhere in the SE. I am growing more amazed at last year's pattern w/ each passing day. Moderate La Nina's are mean mofos.

[pcbjr]

Saw that as well. I'm glad you posted that. I'm still not sold on the upcoming pattern being very warm - though there are certainly more signs pointing to the mini-roast than not. I really want to see how the pattern looks once it's in place. I do not think we will go this entire winter w/out seeing a good amount of winter weather somewhere in the SE. I am growing more amazed at last year's pattern w/ each passing day. Moderate La Nina's are mean mofos.

I'm not sold on it at all (yet), I truly think models are lost in space right now. I'll betcha its either 1898/1985/1989 cold all over again and we don't see it coming b/c the models are not picking up on the changes, or conversely it's spring in 2 weeks and there is no pattern change. I just don't see a middle ground right now.

Correct me please if anyone feels I'm wrong.

[Cold Rain]

I'm not sold on it at all (yet), I truly think models are lost in space right now. I'll betcha its either 1898/1985/1989 cold all over again and we don't see it coming b/c the models are not picking up on the changes, or conversely it's spring in 2 weeks and there is no pattern change. I just don't see a middle ground right now.

Correct me please if anyone feels I'm wrong.

I would have more strongly agreed with you a few days ago. But for the last several cycles, the models have generally been in good agreement on how the overall pattern will evolve. Zonal flow with no -NAO in sight and all the cold bottled up in Canada as far as the eye can see (with the exception of the occasional frontal passage). Doesn't look like a complete torch, but it certainly looks very unfavorable for a widespread SE winter storm/cold outbreak.