Rankin5150 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Lets see if the GFS can score here. Eric Thomas of WBTV is talking about how the GFS has scored better than the EURO for most of the Southeast locales, which I think Foothills has mentioned a time or two. Hoping for a pattern change with sustained blocking and overrunning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Glad to have you back Jason! Hope you are well and if we are to have any mojo it shall be here! Right now anything is possible outside of 48hrs but there are definitely good signs down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like it's going to get cold for a couple of days late this week and then warm up again. Yippee. I think this is the pattern we're going to see all winter. Cold for a couple of days, and then warm up in time for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Glad you're back and doing better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 I am jumping back in the fray...FINALLY. I have been reading some of Roberts (Foothills) posts and it seem like this weekend/next week will be a bonus. Seems like after that timeframe, there is a good chance for some blocking action. We still have plenty of winter left...for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Just looked at last notes Euro. Interestingly the northern energy that drops down at hour 48 drops down at a great spot and how the GFS was doing it yesterday but the cutoff retrogrades back west so far it doesn't have a chance. So let's keep watching today, we need that cut off to not retrograde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Glad to have you back Jason! Hope you are well and if we are to have any mojo it shall be here! Right now anything is possible outside of 48hrs but there are definitely good signs down the road. Agree, and hope you continue to do better every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Just looked at last notes Euro. Interestingly the northern energy that drops down at hour 48 drops down at a great spot and how the GFS was doing it yesterday but the cutoff retrogrades back west so far it doesn't have a chance. So let's keep watching today, we need that cut off to not retrograde. Well that's the good look of the NAM it brings that cutoff into the baja heading due east....so if you got a blend of the Euro and NAM it might be game on. Should be interesting to see what the 12z NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Glad you're back and feeling better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 00z Euro has a very good look with how the high latitude blocking evolves (Foothills had a post on this in the other locked thread). It's showing southward movement of the NE Canada vortex, and it actually rotates it to the south of Hudson Bay (= cold high pressure entering the U.S. in N Dakota / Minnesota)...and it begins to form a noticeable ridge in the north atlantic. 06z GFS has a similar look, with general support from the Euro Ens mean as well. We're just going to have to see how the high latitude blocking evolves, but I remain optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Big concerns about the location of the blocking near Alaska in the main med range discussion thread. Ensembles are sparking fears that the blocking retrogrades west quickly into Siberia bringing warmer than normal temps to the EC, while the West gets the stormy/cold weather. Don S. says closer to normal temps for the SE is a possibility even with the retrograde due to transient cold shots, but it remains to be seen. Very cold in the east is not on the table right now according to some other posters, the West seems to be beneficiaries of the blocking not the east. That said most of the posters feel that a -NAO would send the East coast into the icebox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 yes, we need a -NAO and hopefully if the NAO follows the AO negative, we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Allan Huffman sounds like he thinks winter is pretty much a fail for the rest of the month in his latest blog. Looks like we have to worry more about severe storms than snow. http://www.examiner...._alerts_article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Big concerns about the location of the blocking near Alaska in the main med range discussion thread. Ensembles are sparking fears that the blocking retrogrades west quickly into Siberia bringing warmer than normal temps to the EC, while the West gets the stormy/cold weather. Don S. says closer to normal temps for the SE is a possibility even with the retrograde due to transient cold shots, but it remains to be seen. Very cold in the east is not on the table right now according to some other posters, the West seems to be beneficiaries of the blocking not the east. That said most of the posters feel that a -NAO would send the East coast into the icebox. To be fair, the icebox scenario comes with it's own peril, dryness. I don't want the motherload on top of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Allan Huffman sounds like he thinks winter is pretty much a fail for the rest of the month in his latest blog. Looks like we have to worry more about severe storms than snow. http://www.examiner...._alerts_article That's pretty damning from a cold/snow lovers perspective. I've gone ahead and accepted that this might be a snowless winter around here. If we do score it will be a bonus at this point for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Big concerns about the location of the blocking near Alaska in the main med range discussion thread. Ensembles are sparking fears that the blocking retrogrades west quickly into Siberia bringing warmer than normal temps to the EC, while the West gets the stormy/cold weather. Don S. says closer to normal temps for the SE is a possibility even with the retrograde due to transient cold shots, but it remains to be seen. Very cold in the east is not on the table right now according to some other posters, the West seems to be beneficiaries of the blocking not the east. That said most of the posters feel that a -NAO would send the East coast into the icebox. This is probably the first time we've had any realistic hope of the NAO suddenly going negative. Again, we'll just have to see how this evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 http://www.daculaweather.com/nao.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is probably the first time we've had any realistic hope of the NAO suddenly going negative. Again, we'll just have to see how this evolves. I have heard Robert and others say that if we do get some Atlantic side blocking to develop it could move around a bit once established. The Atlantic blocking modeled to develop is not a -NAO one but it could translate later in time into one from what I've gathered. Considering the modeling I've seen is not too far away from a Greenland blocking look I would guess it's definitely possible we get a sudden NAO drop in the not too distant future. Now those are not the exact words he used but I think I'm paraphrasing in layman's terms. Basically I what I'm saying is you might be correct about a sudden drop, from the way it sounds, although it is not likely by any means from what I'm reading, but possible. I'm overstepping my areas of knowledge but I gave it a go on what I took from the possible -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The 12Z Goofy is the third Goofy in a row that says no weekend SE winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It appears that that might be getting ready to take place. Again, we're a little ways out and we can't trust the models right now so patience is in order. But if the AO tanks (starting to look that way, history tells us that the NAO will very possibly follow. If so, we're talking COLD... AO - http://www.daculaweather.com/ao.php NAO - http://www.daculaweather.com/nao.php PNa - http://www.daculaweather.com/pna.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I have heard Robert and others say that if we do get some Atlantic side blocking to develop it could move around a bit once established. The Atlantic blocking modeled to develop is not a -NAO one but it could translate later in time into one from what I've gathered. Considering the modeling I've seen is not too far away from a Greenland blocking look I would guess it's definitely possible we get a sudden NAO drop in the not too distant future. Now those are not the exact words he used but I think I'm paraphrasing in layman's terms. Basically I what I'm saying is you might be correct about a sudden drop, from the way it sounds, although it is not likely by any means from what I'm reading, but possible. I'm overstepping my areas of knowledge but I gave it a go on what I took from the possible -NAO. Right, we aren't seeing a -NAO on the modeling as of now....but if the blocking establishes somewhat across the pole (-AO) and the Canadian PV drops south, it's possible that -NAO ridging presents itself. Other possibility too is that the AK ridge retrogrades and -NAO doesn't form, and we're left with cold air bottled up to the north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Seeing a lot of ifs, maybes, and possibles. Sounds like we're reaching hard for something that isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The -AO development is the only good thing consistently coming out of the model runs. But we're still at least a couple of weeks away from getting into a truly favorable pattern for winter weather in our part of the country. The AK block will need time to work its way into the pole to displace the PV southward and finally bring the NAO indices down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Allan Huffman sounds like he thinks winter is pretty much a fail for the rest of the month in his latest blog. Looks like we have to worry more about severe storms than snow. http://www.examiner...._alerts_article There seem to be a couple of options on the table and having the heart of the cold dump west of here has ALWAYS been an option. With that said, having the majority of the cold air on our side of the globe is a very good thing if you want snow/ice chances, even if we end up having to rely on perfect timing. Cold air is very dense and this airmass is one that IF models start showing arctic air sagging from say.......... St Louis MO to Lexington KY 5-7 days out, you can almost certainly add at least another 100-150 miles of southward advance to it. I have seen it happen many times before where the models just can't grasp the advance of an arctic airmass. What is next to impossible right now is nailing the downstream effect from a forming block in/near Alaska. Once that block forms, the cold HAS to go somewhere and that somewhere is south in some form or fashion. How will this buckling affect the Atlantic? With the AO scheduled to drop, is it possible for the NAO to remain positive? Not likely. A lot more questions than answers at this point. Let's just all sit back and see where this takes us in the coming weeks, good or bad. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Another warm rainstorm next week on the GFS, all hail the mighty Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe we can squeeze some flakes out with the clipper on Sunday, be nice to see some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Another warm rainstorm next week on the GFS, all hail the mighty Euro Probably followed by another cold front, and warm up in time for another rain storm to roll through. We've just gotta patiently wait until this current pattern breaks down. Hopefully sooner than later, but it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Another warm rainstorm next week on the GFS, all hail the mighty Euro Good to see it does well with rain storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like it's going to get cold for a couple of days late this week and then warm up again. Yippee. I think this is the pattern we're going to see all winter. Cold for a couple of days, and then warm up in time for rain. Hard to know where you're headed when you're not even sure where you're coming from. There's really no clear window to the atmospheric intentions right now other than trends and guesses. I think we just need to accept that this winter is going to be a big fail as far as snow around here. No reason to accept anything at the moment, considering we still aren't sure what is being offered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Probably followed by another cold front, and warm up in time for another rain storm to roll through. We've just gotta patiently wait until this current pattern breaks down. Hopefully sooner than later, but it will. I am starting to think that's what the pattern is going to be until spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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