Van Denton's Weather Discussion

[tarheelwx]

I watch Van Denton first, then Austin Caviness, then Lanie Pope, and if all other sources have been bombed (including my weather radio transmitter and newspaper), I may turn to News 2. I'd rather hear Ed Matthews than Eric Chilton. I got irritated with Chilton in his early days when he often talked about snowshowers here in the triad when what we were truly getting were flurries or even light snow. Snowshowers are a rarity here.

As for Van, I appreciate a guy that will venture out a bit and at least mention some of the less likely possibilities. I can get climo NWS regurgitated on my weather radio all day long.

TW

[POWERSTROKE]

I watch Van Denton first, then Austin Caviness, then Lanie Pope, and if all other sources have been bombed (including my weather radio transmitter and newspaper), I may turn to News 2. I'd rather hear Ed Matthews than Eric Chilton. I got irritated with Chilton in his early days when he often talked about snowshowers here in the triad when what we were truly getting were flurries or even light snow. Snowshowers are a rarity here.

As for Van, I appreciate a guy that will venture out a bit and at least mention some of the less likely possibilities. I can get climo NWS regurgitated on my weather radio all day long.

TW

I like that he at least will mention a possibility while others just sit back and wait before a couple of days before it happens. All of us on the forum know what's going on but the public have no clue

[tarheelwx]

I like that he at least will mention a possibility while others just sit back and wait before a couple of days before it happens. All of us on the forum know what's going on but the public have no clue

I agree. They'll wait until it is certain and then act like it just popped up and they were the first to catch it. Irritates me.

TW

[POWERSTROKE]

I was only trying to point out that a forecaster who is in the public eye should not put Winter precipitation in a forecast 10 days out, especially in the South. to me that is just irresponsible. As for Lanie and Eric's forecast, you must have been confused, yesterday it only went out to next Friday in which a forecast of high of 60 is reasonable. The sunny part may have been a little off however, but the chance for rain on Friday doesn't look high at this point. By talking about snow or ice next weekend Van has done nothing but get people excited about something that has about a 10% chance of actually verifying. And that is being generous.

I could careless about precip in their forecast, but temps were way off. This is always the issue in the winter. Just watch you will see. I think its funny. I call Robert and get get temps and he nails my back yard and lives two hours away. They are 15 minutes to an hour away from me and can't get it right. They get their forecast from NWS almost word for word

[weatherheels]

I like that he at least will mention a possibility while others just sit back and wait before a couple of days before it happens. All of us on the forum know what's going on but the public have no clue

Its typical... heres how it goes. 7 days out, they see a chance of snow/wintry weather on the model(s)... they still put up avg temps and partly cloudy or mostly sunny. 5 days out. Temps a little below avg, mostly cloudy. 3 days out. Temps gonna be chilly, 30% chance of showers, possible a flake or sleet pellet. 2 days out, well, temps might be cold, and we might see precip 40%.... day before... looks like snow, temps cold, didnt I tell you 3 days ago we were gonna see some wintry weather?

Where as Van, 7 days out, will straight up tell you there is that possibility. Maybe thats the weenie in him, and Im sure forecasting like that bites him more than not and makes some of the avg public believe he's clueless.

[Tullioz]

I could careless about precip in their forecast, but temps were way off. This is always the issue in the winter. Just watch you will see. I think its funny. I call Robert and get get temps and he nails my back yard and lives two hours away. They are 15 minutes to an hour away from me and can't get it right. They get their forecast from NWS almost word for word

You are missing the point. I feel it is irresponsible for an on air meteorologist to put frozen precipitation in a forecast that far out. When the weekend ends up with rain and temps in the 40's he will look wrong in the public's eye if he was calling for mixed precipitation. You can only do this so many times before people start loosing faith in your forecasts. (I am in no way saying this is how things will work out next weekend, this is just an example) As for the other two, their forecast was for next Friday that called for a high of 60. They did not have a forecast out for Saturday to compare so who knows what they were calling for.

[jburns]

You are missing the point. I feel it is irresponsible for an on air meteorologist to put frozen precipitation in a forecast that far out. When the weekend ends up with rain and temps in the 40's he will look wrong in the public's eye if he was calling for mixed precipitation. You can only do this so many times before people start loosing faith in your forecasts. (I am in no way saying this is how things will work out next weekend, this is just an example) As for the other two, their forecast was for next Friday that called for a high of 60. They did not have a forecast out for Saturday to compare so who knows what they were calling for.

I think you are missing a point as well. Van made it very clear that the possibility of snow was being shown on one model. He also said clearly that it might not be there tomorrow but it was now. So what is the responsibility of an on the air met? In my view it is to alert to the possibility of significant weather events as far in advance as possible. Van certainly put in enough qualifiers to tell you it was only a possibility.

No one needs to prepare for 60 and sunny a week ahead, so in effect you're saying it is best for the on the air met to lean toward the safe needless forecast if he is not sure.

[Tullioz]

I think you are missing a point as well. Van made it very clear that the possibility of snow was being shown on one model. He also said clearly that it might not be there tomorrow but it was now. So what is the responsibility of an on the air met? In my view it is to alert to the possibility of significant weather events as far in advance as possible. Van certainly put in enough qualifiers to tell you it was only a possibility.

No one needs to prepare for 60 and sunny a week ahead, so in effect you're saying it is best for the on the air met to lean toward the safe needless forecast if he is not sure.

To mention the possibility is one thing, but to actually put it in the forecast as Van apparently did is another. According to Powerstroke, Van has had a high of 39 and mixed precip in the forecast since Thursday. As for playing it safe, that is a more prudent approach from more than a week out for on air mets to take. As for the 60 degree forecast mentioned, that was for Friday which may actually verify the way it looks right now. Powerstroke was comparing the two other mets Friday forecast to Vans Saturday forecast because they only go out seven days. Yesterday's forecast only went through Friday which means we have no idea what they were forecasting for Saturday. Now that WXII and WFMY's forecast go out to Saturday, they are calling for a high around 50 with a slight chance of rain. In my opinion that is a good call at this point in time.

[calculus1]

I have never seen Denton, Chilton, et. al. on the air, so I don't have a dog in the fight. But, I would much rather have an on-air met who is willing to take risks and discuss the potentials in the weather. I hate being fed climatologically safe forecasts as if I didn't have any knowledge of what goes on behind the scenes. How awesome would it be for an on-air met to break out some GFS, ECMWF, and NAM 5H charts and bring us up-to-speed on the coming week? In my opinion, this would be much more interesting than some pretty graphics on a 7-Day forecast. In fact, there's not much on the local news that's ever really too interesting: Let's dispense with all these human interest stories about several firefighters who rescued a missing cat from a neighbor's tree and spend more time on the weather! I might actually watch the evening news if that were to transpire.

[jburns]

To mention the possibility is one thing, but to actually put it in the forecast as Van apparently did is another. According to Powerstroke, Van has had a high of 39 and mixed precip in the forecast since Thursday. As for playing it safe, that is a more prudent approach from more than a week out for on air mets to take. As for the 60 degree forecast mentioned, that was for Friday which may actually verify the way it looks right now. Powerstroke was comparing the two other mets Friday forecast to Vans Saturday forecast because they only go out seven days. Yesterday's forecast only went through Friday which means we have no idea what they were forecasting for Saturday. Now that WXII and WFMY's forecast go out to Saturday, they are calling for a high around 50 with a slight chance of rain. In my opinion that is a good call at this point in time.

I'm just tired of everything being geared to the lowest common denominator. In this case those who can not discern between mentioning a possibility and a forecast, even though the met clearly states it as such. Just read one of the JB threads in the main forum to see several examples.

[Tullioz]

I have never seen Denton, Chilton, et. al. on the air, so I don't have a dog in the fight. But, I would much rather have an on-air met who is willing to take risks and discuss the potentials in the weather. I hate being fed climatologically safe forecasts as if I didn't have any knowledge of what goes on behind the scenes. How awesome would it be for an on-air met to break out some GFS, ECMWF, and NAM 5H charts and bring us up-to-speed on the coming week? In my opinion, this would be much more interesting than some pretty graphics on a 7-Day forecast. In fact, there's not much on the local news that's ever really too interesting: Let's dispense with all these human interest stories about several firefighters who rescued a missing cat from a neighbor's tree and spend more time on the weather! I might actually watch the evening news if that were to transpire.

I agree 100%, and Van does this more than any other met in the Triad. That is why I prefer him over the others. Evidently most in the triad also agree, and this is why Van Denton won the Go Triad's Reader' Choice award for best local Meteorologist. However, the play it safe, WFMY Channel 2, has the most accurate forecast in the market as verified by Weatherite.

[Tullioz]

I'm just tired of everything being geared to the lowest common denominator. In this case those who can not discern between mentioning a possibility and a forecast, even though the met clearly states it as such. Just read one of the JB threads in the main forum to see several examples.

In this case, Van had a Forecast of 39 degrees and mixed precipitation for next Saturday.

[jburns]

In this case, Van had a Forecast of 39 degrees and mixed precipitation for next Saturday.

What % did he display?

[Tullioz]

Van has had mix and 39 for a high next saturday since thursday.

Lanie had 62 and sunny until last night and now has 48 and 20% of rain

Eric Chilton has 50 and 20% of rain, did have 60.

Big difference. But that's typical from them

What % did he display?

Above is the post that started this debate. Powerstroke would have to be the one to ask on the percentage of precipitation in the above forecast for next Saturday since he is the one who made the claim to begin with. However; he is also the one who said Lanie was forecasting Sunny and a high of 60 and Eric was forecasting a 20% chance of rain on the same day. This puts the whole statement in question since neither Lanie or Eric had issued a forecast for Saturday. Both of them only forecast out seven days.

[Snow Queen]

Van is still my fave. I prefer a met mentioning a "possibility" as opposed to the other mets playing it safe. I can be prepared for the worst case scenario (or best if you like winter weather like me). In my opinion, whichever way a 7 day forecast results, whether calling for sunny and 60 and it ends up snowing..or calling for snow and it ends up sunny can make people say, "those weather guys have no idea what they are talking about". I think most people know that no one really knows what the weather will do, even with the help of models and looking at trends. I think it's crazy to judge a met just on the fact that he missed a forecast. Can anyone really get it right? I mean that is what we have pondered all winter! To me it's more important to be informed, and Van informs his people.

[POWERSTROKE]

Above is the post that started this debate. Powerstroke would have to be the one to ask on the percentage of precipitation in the above forecast for next Saturday since he is the one who made the claim to begin with. However; he is also the one who said Lanie was forecasting Sunny and a high of 60 and Eric was forecasting a 20% chance of rain on the same day. This puts the whole statement in question since neither Lanie or Eric had issued a forecast for Saturday. Both of them only forecast out seven days.

Maybe you can't get their forecast I sat here on friday and saw Lanie all the way to Saturday next week. Even showed their engineer. Last night Michele Kennedy changed it. It doesn't really matter either way but know what i saw and their own Engineer saw

[POWERSTROKE]

I agree. They'll wait until it is certain and then act like it just popped up and they were the first to catch it. Irritates me.

TW

this is what I am talking about. Heck I can sit here and watch models listen to mets on here then say within 48hrs hey look what showed up. Denton is a weenie but I prefer him say something than not. he said there is a possibly based on models right now but as we have all seen all winter this may change. That's what he said which is not leading anybody on. But guess a matter of an opinion.

BTW Austin Should be the chief on 12

[Cold Rain]

^SQ - Good post. There is not a thing wrong with both mentioning snow in a seven day or putting up a snow icon in a seven day graphic. It's no different in principle than putting a cloud icon the graphic, though people get more excited about the possibility of winter wx. But people who have lived here for any length of time realize that the forecast will likely change. This isn't life and death here. It's really not that big of a deal.

[Tullioz]

Maybe you can't get their forecast I sat here on friday and saw Lanie all the way to Saturday next week. Even showed their engineer. Last night Michele Kennedy changed it. It doesn't really matter either way but know what i saw and their own Engineer saw

I have never known WXII or WFMY to issue a forecast beyond seven days. The graphics on their websites have always shown the same graphics that appear on the news cast, and Friday's forecast would have went out to next Friday at the latest. That being said, I think it is possible that you saw their forecast for next Friday and assumed it was for Saturday. That is the only logical explanation. Either that or they both went out on a limb and had a special 8 day forecast just this one time which I highly doubt.

[Snow Queen]

^SQ - Good post. There is not a thing wrong with both mentioning snow in a seven day or putting up a snow icon in a seven day graphic. It's no different in principle than putting a cloud icon the graphic, though people get more excited about the possibility of winter wx. But people who have lived here for any length of time realize that the forecast will likely change. This isn't life and death here. It's really not that big of a deal.

Thanks Cold Rain..yeah I don't think so either. Everyone should know and expect the 5 or 7 day forecast to change. Also, think of how boring it would be if no one stuck their necks out and everyone played it safe!

[Tullioz]

Thanks Cold Rain..yeah I don't think so either. Everyone should know and expect the 5 or 7 day forecast to change. Also, think of how boring it would be if no one stuck their necks out and everyone played it safe!

Most people do take a 5 to 7 day forecast with a grain of salt. And yes, playing it safe is a boring way to live your life. I should know, I currently live in a Muslim neighborhood, on an island in the Philippines that the State Department warns Americans not to travel to. lol Anyway, if a TV met put every Winter weather threat that the models put out there it would not be long before people stopped taking them seriously. that is the only point I am trying to make here.

[Snow Queen]

Most people do take a 5 to 7 day forecast with a grain of salt. And yes, playing it safe is a boring way to live your life. I should know, I currently live in a Muslim neighborhood, on an island in the Philippines that the State Department warns Americans not to travel to. lol Anyway, if a TV met put every Winter weather threat that the models put out there it would not be long before people stopped taking them seriously. that is the only point I am trying to make here.

I see your point...but I think the same holds true for those that fail to mention winter weather possibilities too. Van has it on WFMY that "from time to time we see a CHANCE on the models. Many times it goes away before the scheduled arrival. But, for a few days, I have seen something curious for next weekend...around Feb 4th." He posted that Friday afternoon. So, he is letting people know that it CAN change.

[Snow Queen]

LOL, correction WGHP...Not WFMY....

[Tullioz]

I see your point...but I think the same holds true for those that fail to mention winter weather possibilities too. Van has it on WFMY that "from time to time we see a CHANCE on the models. Many times it goes away before the scheduled arrival. But, for a few days, I have seen something curious for next weekend...around Feb 4th." He posted that Friday afternoon. So, he is letting people know that it CAN change.

No doubt that Van is the one to turn to over the others in the Triad. But the ones who play it safe always come out looking good in the end. Words like, snow, sleet, and freezing rain stick in peoples minds in the South. If they call for 50 and rain until two or three days out and then start leaning in the direction of frozen precipitation they really can't go wrong. Where as the met who puts frozen precipitation in the forecast from five or more days out has a lot more to live up to. If he or she cries wolf too many times it will start making the others look better. It is much easier to add frozen precipitation as you get closer rather than the other way around. People don't forget it's in the forecast once it is mentioned.

[Isopycnic]

Above is the post that started this debate. Powerstroke would have to be the one to ask on the percentage of precipitation in the above forecast for next Saturday since he is the one who made the claim to begin with. However; he is also the one who said Lanie was forecasting Sunny and a high of 60 and Eric was forecasting a 20% chance of rain on the same day. This puts the whole statement in question since neither Lanie or Eric had issued a forecast for Saturday. Both of them only forecast out seven days.

Maybe you can't get their forecast I sat here on friday and saw Lanie all the way to Saturday next week. Even showed their engineer. Last night Michele Kennedy changed it. It doesn't really matter either way but know what i saw and their own Engineer saw

busted.

[POWERSTROKE]

No doubt that Van is the one to turn to over the others in the Triad. But the ones who play it safe always come out looking good in the end. Words like, snow, sleet, and freezing rain stick in peoples minds in the South. If they call for 50 and rain until two or three days out and then start leaning in the direction of frozen precipitation they really can't go wrong. Where as the met who puts frozen precipitation in the forecast from five or more days out has a lot more to live up to. If he or she cries wolf too many times it will start making the others look better. It is much easier to add frozen precipitation as you get closer rather than the other way around. People don't forget it's in the forecast once it is mentioned.

who cares as long as we get it, I just stated what was said you can have your so called point. Man talking about beating a dead horse anyway back to the models

[tarheelwx]

this is what I am talking about. Heck I can sit here and watch models listen to mets on here then say within 48hrs hey look what showed up. Denton is a weenie but I prefer him say something than not. he said there is a possibly based on models right now but as we have all seen all winter this may change. That's what he said which is not leading anybody on. But guess a matter of an opinion.

BTW Austin Should be the chief on 12

agree on all parts

tw

[POWERSTROKE]

busted.

busted? Yea ok funny when WXII engineer saw same thing.

they now have fri 55 rain

sat 52 and rain

47 sun and 57 monday

look under forecast

[Tullioz]

Van has had mix and 39 for a high next saturday since thursday.

Lanie had 62 and sunny until last night and now has 48 and 20% of rain

Eric Chilton has 50 and 20% of rain, did have 60.

Big difference. But that's typical from them

I am not so sure taking the 60degree route for next weekend is the safe route either...

I could careless about precip in their forecast, but temps were way off. This is always the issue in the winter. Just watch you will see. I think its funny. I call Robert and get get temps and he nails my back yard and lives two hours away. They are 15 minutes to an hour away from me and can't get it right. They get their forecast from NWS almost word for word

In the end it appears that taking the safe route paid off as the high yesterday at PTI was 57 and the low was 39. Maybe Van was forecasting the low temperature for yesterday. If so he was spot on! I also see on Facebook that Van has made a comment concerning yesterday's blown forecast as a few people expressed their disappointment.

Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV Jim....that was 8 days ago we mentioned the GFS model showed the chance for 3 consecutive runs and decided to mention the possibility. The very next run of the model it no longer showed it and we talked about that several times early in the week. Would love to see some snow. I think it was last friday night, I posted an update on Facebook to let folks know the model no longer showed the chance. Of course, we said the same on tv. I only go out on a limb with the Real Long range possibilities that the models show because so many people like seeing that and want me to share what is there. Still, I am very careful to point out that it is a long ways off and LIKELY to change. No one should be let down when those types of qualifiers are added. I stressed that part so much that even Julie and Kevin picked on me about it......But, I know it is necessary as many people just don't hear that part or understand High chance vs. Low Chance.

The bold part is the point I was trying to make all along, and is why it is better not to put frozen precipitation in a forecast 7 or 8 days out.

[POWERSTROKE]

In the end it appears that taking the safe route paid off as the high yesterday at PTI was 57 and the low was 39. Maybe Van was forecasting the low temperature for yesterday. If so he was spot on! I also see on Facebook that Van has made a comment concerning yesterday's blown forecast as a few people expressed their disappointment.

Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV Jim....that was 8 days ago we mentioned the GFS model showed the chance for 3 consecutive runs and decided to mention the possibility. The very next run of the model it no longer showed it and we talked about that several times early in the week. Would love to see some snow. I think it was last friday night, I posted an update on Facebook to let folks know the model no longer showed the chance. Of course, we said the same on tv. I only go out on a limb with the Real Long range possibilities that the models show because so many people like seeing that and want me to share what is there. Still, I am very careful to point out that it is a long ways off and LIKELY to change. No one should be let down when those types of qualifiers are added. I stressed that part so much that even Julie and Kevin picked on me about it......But, I know it is necessary as many people just don't hear that part or understand High chance vs. Low Chance.

The bold part is the point I was trying to make all along, and is why it is better not to put frozen precipitation in a forecast 7 or 8 days out.

Here is that dead horse again, man keep beating that horse. All he said it was POSSIBLE heck he mentioned next weekend as well so beat it some more. No different than anybody on here but you keep worrying about it as all others have moved on. But wxii did have 62 and sunny for today last week as did wfmy since you keeping up with it. Van did have 40's but again who cares