Jim Martin Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 From the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana... SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 444 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012 INZ003>006-MIZ077>079-100900- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-BERRIEN-CASS MI- ST. JOSEPH MI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON 444 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012 /344 PM CST MON JAN 9 2012/ ...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LIKELY. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT OVER SECTIONS OF THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD...INTERSTATE 94...AND HIGHWAYS 6...12...31...AND 20. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE ORIENTATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS...WHICH WILL HIGHLY AFFECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Here is GRR thoughts on it. .LONG TERM...(300 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012) (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ACTIVE WINTER WX ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK. THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING SYNOPTIC SNOW THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND AS THE H5 TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OVER OUR REGION. PV LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPING ALSO WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -12 TO -14 C IN THE AFTN. PV THINKING ALSO FAVORS A STRONGER SFC LOW JUST TO THE NE OF LWR MI AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE. W TO WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS H8 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -15 TO -17 C... YIELDING STRONG TO EXTREME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA AND PARTICULARLY IN OUR FAVORED WNW FLOW SNOW BELT REGIONS AS THE LES RAMPS UP AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY AS WELL AS A SFC LOW ON THE ORDER OF 1005 MB OVER NORTHERN MN TUESDAY STRENGTHENS TO A 990 MB LOW NE OF LWR MI BY 12Z FRI... RESULTING IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE PLAINS STATES SFC RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT WILL SNOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FCST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP MOISTURE UNDER THE UPPER LOW... BUT THE WEST TO WNW FLOW SNOW BELTS WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL. 1000-850 MB SFC CONVERGENCE THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO SUGGESTS THE AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR ARE FAVORED FOR SOME OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN ADDITION TO OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA WHERE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS LONGER AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW CENTER/BETTER PROGGED QPF. FCST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. 12Z GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WITH H8 TEMPS ALREADY MODERATING SIGNIFICANTLY TO -9 TO -11 C BY 12Z SAT... AND TO -7 TO -9 C BY 00Z SUN. THAT SCENARIO WOULD BRING A FAIRLY ABRUPT END TO LES SATURDAY. 12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE LOOKS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND PREFER IT/S SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I am looking forward to it. It looks like a good setup for my area. The gfs this evening looks great for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I am looking forward to it. It looks like a good setup for my area. The gfs this evening looks great for us! Yes.. Assuming the models hold ( thus don't pull what they did the last time and this end up more of a nw/nnw flow event ) you should do alot better then you have with the last few events. Same for Grand Rapids/Hastings as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yes.. Assuming the models hold ( thus don't pull what they did the last time and this end up more of a nw/nnw flow event ) you should do alot better then you have with the last few events. Same for Grand Rapids/Hastings as well. Ooops... PREFERENCE OF GEM/ECMWF THIS MORNING IS HARD TO IGNORE AND WELL AGREED UPON TAKING CLOSING MIDLVL CIRC ON A CIRCUITOUS LOOP DOWN NR THE LWR OH RVR THU NIGHT AND THEN NEWD INTO THE ERN LAKES FRI WHICH IS A FAR MORE FVRBL TRACK OF SIG LK EFFECT HERE AND WHICH PROMOTES A MUCH MORE SIG LONG AXIS FETCH DOWN LK MI. OP GFS SOLUTION TRENDS SHARPLY IN THIS DIRECTION YET STILL LOOKS TO HAVE CATCHING UP TO DO. REGARDLESS VAST UPWARD BUMP IN POPS AND GREATER LK CONTRIBUTION W/INLAND EXTENT HERALDED AS MID LVL COMMA HEAD SHLD PROMOTE SIG LK ENHANCEMENT THU NIGHT/FRIDAY W/HIGHLITES LIKELY COME TOMORROW SHLD THIS PREFERENCE HOLD GOING FORWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ooops... PREFERENCE OF GEM/ECMWF THIS MORNING IS HARD TO IGNORE AND WELL AGREED UPON TAKING CLOSING MIDLVL CIRC ON A CIRCUITOUS LOOP DOWN NR THE LWR OH RVR THU NIGHT AND THEN NEWD INTO THE ERN LAKES FRI WHICH IS A FAR MORE FVRBL TRACK OF SIG LK EFFECT HERE AND WHICH PROMOTES A MUCH MORE SIG LONG AXIS FETCH DOWN LK MI. OP GFS SOLUTION TRENDS SHARPLY IN THIS DIRECTION YET STILL LOOKS TO HAVE CATCHING UP TO DO. REGARDLESS VAST UPWARD BUMP IN POPS AND GREATER LK CONTRIBUTION W/INLAND EXTENT HERALDED AS MID LVL COMMA HEAD SHLD PROMOTE SIG LK ENHANCEMENT THU NIGHT/FRIDAY W/HIGHLITES LIKELY COME TOMORROW SHLD THIS PREFERENCE HOLD GOING FORWARD. Considering what the EURO does with the storm i doubt you will see many complaints up this way about LES. But yeah this is why as i said above not to get too excited or worked up yet over LES. Been here long enough to know how this stuff can change on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Considering what the EURO does with the storm i doubt you will see many complaints up this way about LES. But yeah this is why as i said above not to get too excited or worked up yet over LES. Been here long enough to know how this stuff can change on a dime. True that. yeah, it's looking like it's gonna be a share the love type deal.Those who were depending on LES may not have to worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 True that. yeah, it's looking like it's gonna be a share the love type deal.Those who were depending on LES may not have to worry about that. Yep.. Will be very nice to see alot of people in this region getting some white. Could be some VERY nice totals down that way between the system and added lake juice with that northerly flow. This will be my 8th winter here and if the euro and it's ensembles are correct then this will be the first time i have tracked a surface low basically moving from Ohio due north to the southern end of Huron. Guessing the lake stuff could be pretty significant with that sort of track? Ample moisture on top of the long fetch etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 For Being 2 days out, IWX seems pretty aggressive with totals. Still a lot of disagreement with reguards to the lake fetch, as a local met in South Bend still touting westerly flow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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