Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 So...were the ensembles pushng the ch qnge too early? Are we really going to see some winter in February? Roger Smith ftw? This version of change really is no different in real weather than November in terms of where the snow flew. I'm hoping in February we get some legit shots. We may have a chance around the 19-21...but in the meantime..snooze. EDIT: I don't buy the weeklies, I think something is off there for there to be such massive anomalies and if they're not wrong we may see some records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 No kidding. That guy put out an awesome forecast this year. I mean, so far, he has nailed it. He even called for the above normal temps around the 6th-7th of this month. He totally failed in the West though so half good depending on your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Tuesday still sucks on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The chances for any significant snowstorms look extremely low the rest of this month...not good. Could always be a surprise across central/northern New England but down this way things do not look good at all. Should be a top 3 least snowiest January here when all said and done, perhaps even least snowiest (although all we need at BDL is 0.3'' to make sure that doesn't happen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I thought week 3 and 4 actually looked OK...I don't know...made me feel a little better tonight. LOL Temp wise I thought they were mild, but at least they had ridging more towards the DS, so yeah maybe that gives us a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Temp wise I thought they were mild, but at least they had ridging more towards the DS, so yeah maybe that gives us a chance. Week 4 had fairly minimal anomalies and I thought things were moving out of the misery zone. Sure looks warm 1/22 ish onward for a spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I don't even care about whether or not the pattern looks mild or cold...it looks relatively boring with very little in the way of storm chances. At this point there really is no difference in whether it's incredibly mild or frigid cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I might be too optismistic, but I'm not going try to polish a piece of crap here....however...I see a few signa that are starting to make me feel somewhat better. 1) So we know the pattern begins to break down. The PV retrogrades and so does the blocking. However, the job is done regarding bringing cold into Canada. 2) This mainly applies after d10. So what we see, is zonal PAC flow and a very mild pattern across most of the US. In fact, it's a blow torch all things considered. Also, still have troughing into the Davis Straits, so all signs point to torch over most of the US..especially south and east. 3) However, there are signs of ridging trying to develop over NE Canada and this pushes into the Davis Straits towards d12-13. This is important because the storm track verbatim is over or just south of SNE. Any little confluence to our ne will help push the boundary south. It almost looks like an ice risk too if you believe the pattern. Overall looks like lots of overrunning and have to favor NNE..but this is something to watch. Heights in the last couple of runs have tended to try and raise heights there. 4) By d15-16 there looks like a legit -NAO on the EC ensembles. Yes it is d16, but this has been developing in the ensembles. Verbatim, the Tip teleconnection index is -1SD. Not bad. So while this is no guarantee and anything at the end of the ensembles is always subject to change...I think this is a feature worth watching. South of SNE, it looks like a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I might be too optismistic, but I'm not going try to polish a piece of crap here....however...I see a few signa that are starting to make me feel somewhat better. 1) So we know the pattern begins to break down. The PV retrogrades and so does the blocking. However, the job is done regarding bringing cold into Canada. 2) This mainly applies after d10. So what we see, is zonal PAC flow and a very mild pattern across most of the US. In fact, it's a blow torch all things considered. Also, still have troughing into the Davis Straits, so all signs point to torch over most of the US..especially south and east. 3) However, there are signs of ridging trying to develop over NE Canada and this pushes into the Davis Straits towards d12-13. This is important because the storm track verbatim is over or just south of SNE. Any little confluence to our ne will help push the boundary south. It almost looks like an ice risk too if you believe the pattern. Overall looks like lots of overrunning and have to favor NNE..but this is something to watch. Heights in the last couple of runs have tended to try and raise heights there. 4) By d15-16 there looks like a legit -NAO on the EC ensembles. Yes it is d16, but this has been developing in the ensembles. Verbatim, the Tip teleconnection index is -1SD. Not bad. So while this is no guarantee and anything at the end of the ensembles is always subject to change...I think this is a feature worth watching. South of SNE, it looks like a disaster. At least this post wasn't a total wrist slitter. Reading this thread makes me ashamed of some of the SNE gang. Never have I seen such a bunch of sad sacks, One should never succumb to pessimism. Ullr rewards the pious and punishes the non-believers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 At least this post wasn't a total wrist slitter. Reading this thread makes me ashamed of some of the SNE gang. Never have I seen such a bunch of sad sacks, One should never succumb to pessimism. Ullr rewards the pious and punishes the non-believers. LOL, I don't know what you are injesting...but I want some. It's been bad...I'm not going to sugar coat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 LOL, I don't know what you are injesting...but I want some. It's been bad...I'm not going to sugar coat it. This is about as bad of a winter as you will ever see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 LOL, I don't know what you are injesting...but I want some. It's been bad...I'm not going to sugar coat it. Fresh snow. All the LR doom and gloom about yesterday's storm never came to pass. "Rain to Canada" phail. More snow on the way. 2 weeks from today I'll be in Nirvana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The chances for any significant snowstorms look extremely low the rest of this month...not good. Could always be a surprise across central/northern New England but down this way things do not look good at all. Should be a top 3 least snowiest January here when all said and done, perhaps even least snowiest (although all we need at BDL is 0.3'' to make sure that doesn't happen). Sometimes I wonder if you use anything but the GFS..I guess you've missed the clipper on the Euro and its ens for Jan 20 or 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Sometimes I wonder if you use anything but the GFS..I guess you've missed the clipper on the Euro and its ens for Jan 20 or 21 What I would give to have the 20th explode into something, closign down BDL. Or at least keeping my plane from having arrived the night before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Sometimes I wonder if you use anything but the GFS..I guess you've missed the clipper on the Euro and its ens for Jan 20 or 21 I actually mostly use the GFS The only thing I usually look at on the euro is the 8-10 day mean. I should probably look at the euro more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I actually mostly use the GFS The only thing I usually look at on the euro is the 8-10 day mean. I should probably look at the euro more often You may easily be correct. Pattern pretty much sucks, but it wouldn't take a big change to make things more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 You may easily be correct. Pattern pretty much sucks, but it wouldn't take a big change to make things more interesting. Definitely not...in fact even just looking at the GFS the timeframe from the 17-th-22nd could be interesting if we could get a few things to work out...one of them being perfect phasing which you'll never get timing of the phasing 100% correct this far out. One thing yesterday's storm proved is even if the pattern sucks you just never know and that is why many still don't put much effort into long-range forecasting (not necessarily talking seasonal here but 6-7+ days out)...one little sneaky move and you can get snow. One thing I find interesting as well which I was talking with earthlight about this a few nights ago is that ridging we see developing in SE Canada...that is something that could really try and benefit us, even if we aren't seeing much in the way of a trough here...just as long as we aren't seeing massive ridging. As for the clipper scenario I don't really trust model depictions of clippers more than 2 days out really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 looks like late next week is our only chance out of the next few for snow down here. hope ski country gets theirs. What cold over the weekend , Matt Noyes say sunny and 75 for pats game tomorrow http://www.csnne.com/quickslants# (play Noyes video) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The Torch to end all torches is coming for the last week of the month, the clippers a flipper ha ha. I expect record highs to fall later this month, its going to transform the landscape, truly an epic and awe inspiring period of warmth. Cant wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The Torch to end all torches is coming for the last week of the month, the clippers a flipper ha ha. I expect record highs to fall later this month, its going to transform the landscape, truly an epic and awe inspiring period of warmth. Cant wait. I disagree. I don't see a record high pattern around here. It could get warm sure, but I think if any highs fall..it will be south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The Torch to end all torches is coming for the last week of the month, the clippers a flipper ha ha. I expect record highs to fall later this month, its going to transform the landscape, truly an epic and awe inspiring period of warmth. Cant wait. This weekend should shave 2-3F off the monthly departure. The table below shows current monthly departure, the forecast for each day, and the new departure after this cold spell. CURRENT FRI JAN 13 SAT JAN 14 SUN JAN 15 MON JAN 16 JAN 14-16 FORECAST CHANGE ID JAN DEP HI LO DEP HI LO DEP HI LO DEP HI LO DEP AVG DEP JAN DEP JAN DEP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BOS + 6.1 45 32 +10 32 17 - 4 22 12 -12 34 11 - 6 - 7.3 + 3.8 - 2.3 BDL + 7.6 43 26 + 9 31 15 - 3 23 10 - 9 33 9 - 5 - 5.7 + 5.2 - 2.4 PVD + 5.7 51 30 +12 34 18 - 3 24 11 -11 35 12 - 5 - 6.3 + 3.8 - 1.9 ORH + 6.9 37 24 + 7 26 10 - 6 17 6 -12 30 5 - 6 - 8.0 + 4.1 - 2.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This weekend should shave 2-3F off the monthly departure. The table below shows current monthly departure, the forecast for each day, and the new departure after this cold spell. CURRENT FRI JAN 13 SAT JAN 14 SUN JAN 15 MON JAN 16 JAN 14-16 FORECAST CHANGE ID JAN DEP HI LO DEP HI LO DEP HI LO DEP HI LO DEP AVG DEP JAN DEP JAN DEP ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BOS + 6.1 45 32 +10 32 17 - 4 22 12 -12 34 11 - 6 - 7.3 + 3.8 - 2.3 BDL + 7.6 43 26 + 9 31 15 - 3 23 10 - 9 33 9 - 5 - 5.7 + 5.2 - 2.4 PVD + 5.7 51 30 +12 34 18 - 3 24 11 -11 35 12 - 5 - 6.3 + 3.8 - 1.9 ORH + 6.9 37 24 + 7 26 10 - 6 17 6 -12 30 5 - 6 - 8.0 + 4.1 - 2.8 Scary to think what those numbers will look like come end of month. Wow this arctic shot is moderating, okx had a forecast low of 8 for mon morning as of yesterday, today its 18, same story different day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 At least this post wasn't a total wrist slitter. Reading this thread makes me ashamed of some of the SNE gang. Never have I seen such a bunch of sad sacks, One should never succumb to pessimism. Ullr rewards the pious and punishes the non-believers.dude, wtf are you talking about, I have a trace of snow since October and is raining today, what do you expect, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I disagree. I don't see a record high pattern around here. It could get warm sure, but I think if any highs fall..it will be south of us. We shall see Scott, all I know is the warmth has overperformed in every torch so far this winter, I would not bet against it even if the uap does not have the record look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Sometimes I wonder if you use anything but the GFS..I guess you've missed the clipper on the Euro and its ens for Jan 20 or 21 yeah clipper still showing on 6gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This 5 month long mega death torch is going out with a bang later this month, its swan song.......some warmth will ly ahead but this streak is about to end, my torchey is about to die. Feb-2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This 5 month long mega death torch is going out with a bang later this month, its swan song.......some warmth will ly ahead but this streak is about to end, my torchey is about to die. Feb-2.5 What about November 16th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 What about November 16th? At 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 We shall see Scott, all I know is the warmth has overperformed in every torch so far this winter, I would not bet against it even if the uap does not have the record look to it. For records, you'll need a huge trough in the west and a +NAO. I'm not sure we'll see both. It doesn't mean we can't get some sort of a cutter, but at first glance..I don't think the pattern supports record highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I disagree. I don't see a record high pattern around here. It could get warm sure, but I think if any highs fall..it will be south of us. Going to be tough to gauge this far out at where that gradient sets up. All we know right now (or believe) is the gradient will be extremely tight. I would probably bet that northern New England will be too far north for any record warm temps but I could see at least CT being in some near record warmth territory and especially down by NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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