CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Is there any hint of "not so bad" out in the long range? None that I can see. Only luck would keep us ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 None that I can see. Only luck would keep us ok. Looks like about a 7-10 day window to make something happen. I'm now officially interested in the miller b potential Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks like about a 7-10 day window to make something happen. I'm now officially interested in the miller b potential Sunday. That looks like a non event imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Didn't have a chance to look --- Can anyone comment on ensemble runs overnight for long range? AK vortex? NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Didn't have a chance to look --- Can anyone comment on ensemble runs overnight for long range? AK vortex? NAO? i don't have access to the ec ens after day 10 (but based on what was written above they don't sound good). but i can say day 8-10 is already getting ugly. the relatively brief appearance of north pacific ridging weakens and rapidly retrogrades...heights out in the GOA collapse. the polar vortex is on our side of the hemisphere but displaced pretty far north. the lowering heights out west drops the serious icebox into central and western canada, with cold spread out across the remainder of Canada - which is OK - but it'll be tough to get it down into the conus consistently with that set-up. there's some higher heights in the southeast us so any little ripple along the flow will want to shoot any surface lp coming out from the northern part of the nation into the GL and NNE...path of least resistance really. the thing to watch would be for some stronger low level cold pushes now and then...maybe ice problems in new england at some point? just speculating really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Is there any hint of "not so bad" out in the long range? FWIW, I honestly think that we're going to enter a more changeable pattern with periods of cold and warm and storms in-between instead of just warm and bleh. The fact that we're seeing ridging in the west and a through in east is a good sign and good start. We just need these waves to continue to propagate and deepen and hopefully we can get something to phase right. Still plenty of time for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boolean Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 i dont see any torches in the next ten days. after that...who knows? im not going to bet the rent money on what some model predicts for jan. 30. calm down people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 i dont see any torches in the next ten days. after that...who knows? im not going to bet the rent money on what some model predicts for jan. 30. calm down people. You'll have a warm up next week. It's the last 8-10 days of January that look kind of ugly right now on all guidance. It's a pretty good warm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boolean Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 You'll have a warm up next week. It's the last 8-10 days of January that look kind of ugly right now on all guidance. It's a pretty good warm signal. i dont doubt that is a possibility. i dont even doubt that it is likely. but werent many on this board just last week or so happy about the way the end of jan looked? obviously something changed. it could change again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 i dont doubt that is a possibility. i dont even doubt that it is likely. but werent many on this board just last week or so happy about the way the end of jan looked? obviously something changed. it could change again.... No not really. I think many of us thought it was going to end around 1/22ish and have said that all along, but we got drowned out by the eternal optimists that have been wrong since 10/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 You'll have a warm up next week. It's the last 8-10 days of January that look kind of ugly right now on all guidance. It's a pretty good warm signal. I wouldn't be surprised if it was warmer given the pattern that we're coming out of. Like I was saying, the most important thing is we're entering a more wave like pattern. Perhaps we'll enter a one week cold, one week warm kind of pattern and it will turn cold again for the first week of February?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 At least the Euro had a nice snowstorm on the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 At least the Euro had a nice snowstorm on the 20th. its been showing one regularly at 7 days since the end of October, lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Brutal just brutal, one saving grace is this heat may induce a -NAO sometime in Feb I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Brutal just brutal, one saving grace is this heat may induce a -NAO sometime in Feb I guess. lolz at the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Jan 20th is a period that has been on the ensembles for a bit...we'll have to watch for some sort of clipper diving in from the lakes...maybe a redeveloper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Jan 20th is a period that has been on the ensembles for a bit...we'll have to watch for some sort of clipper diving in from the lakes...maybe a redeveloper. Id take even a 2-4 inch clippah right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 EC ensembles look horrible overall. If there is any good news, we may have storm chances, but my God...what a torch over the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 EC ensembles look horrible overall. If there is any good news, we may have storm chances, but my God...what a torch over the US. February rocks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 EC ensembles look horrible overall. If there is any good news, we may have storm chances, but my God...what a torch over the US. LL Cool Libations approves this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 February rocks? I don't know. Won't start out well, I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 February rocks? Yes - Feb, 2013. But by then mankind will have already become extinct (as of December this year) so it won't really matter by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 If the ensembles are right, this could be great for NNE. Pretty risky down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I don't know. Won't start out well, I don't think. Believe me, my post was entirely tongue in cheek. This winter appears to be an end to ender. Hope that impression is wrong but it appears it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Well its going to be damn cold. For Saturday night/Sunday/Sunday night MRG is forecasted 1/13/0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I wonder if the rainstorm on Tuesday will trend colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I wonder if the rainstorm on Tuesday will trend colder? yeah, another freaking rainstorm.. great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 yeah, another freaking rainstorm.. great This winter has gotten to you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I wonder if the rainstorm on Tuesday will trend colder? Ooooh, yeah. Cold rain vs. a not so cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I wonder if the rainstorm on Tuesday will trend colder? no, the 384 is always set in stone, never can change. so if it shows rain for 2 weeks from now, no chance it can ever change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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