cheetah440 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 We need a sacrifice bunt here, the cutter is it, pump up heights in Greenland, an intentional walk then boom Carbo with the three run dinger. I like it. old school analogies are the best and this is a very good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 We have had a billion sacrifice bunts this winter, there still is no pattern change yet, as alluded to be scooter and others. Next week has multiple sacrificial lambs, enjoy the snow tonight and mix bag Saturday it should be a lot of fun cause its gone on Monday, enjoy whats in front of you. Debbie Jo the Southern Belle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I was peering over the multiple decade graph of the AO/NAO spanning some 200 years or whatever it was, and noting - anew - the interesting 20-30 year periodicity, where it oscillates above and below 0.0. What the means to the lay person is that every 20 or 30 ~ years, the "tendency" for AO/NAO flips from negative to positive, and back again. As of about 2004, the tendency - using this observation as a tentative prognostic tool - for the AO/NAO flipped to negative. We still have a ways to go before this multi-decadal index bottoms out; also, each bottoming out and maxima alike, they don't always go as extreme as the previous or subsequent oscillations. Sometimes the positive is more modest, other times more obvious - and vice versa. What it interesting to point out is that any given individual year along a 100 year's worth or whatever era can have a result that disconnects from the native longer term mean. This year is just such an instant, more than just that, it is a GIANT STATISTICAL OUTLIER relative to having flipped the AO/NAO negative back in 2004. Equal to that staggering achievement by the atmosphere, is just how ANNOYING it is. It's like, ...cheating. When all is said and done and that numbers are added to the on-going graph, this is going to result in an errant looking wild positive, out of place spike, where the graph just goes birzirk for an instant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I was peering over the multiple decade graph of the AO/NAO spanning some 200 years or whatever it was, and noting - anew - the interesting 20-30 year periodicity, where it oscillates above and below 0.0. What the means to the lay person is that every 20 or 30 ~ years, the "tendency" for AO/NAO flips from negative to positive, and back again. As of about 2004, the tendency - using this observation as a tentative prognostic tool - for the AO/NAO flipped to negative. We still have a ways to go before this multi-decadal index bottoms out; also, each bottoming out and maxima alike, they don't always go as extreme as the previous or subsequent oscillations. Sometimes the positive is more modest, other times more obvious - and vice versa. What it interesting to point out is that any given individual year along a 100 year's worth or whatever era can have a result that disconnects from the native longer term mean. This year is just such an instant, more than just that, it is a GIANT STATISTICAL OUTLIER relative to having flipped the AO/NAO negative back in 2004. Equal to that staggering achievement by the atmosphere, is just how ANNOYING it is. It's like, ...cheating. When all is said and done and that numbers are added to the on-going graph, this is going to result in an errant looking wild positive, out of place spike, where the graph just goes birzirk for an instant. Jonathon..what are you thinking for the Sunday nite and Monday event? Colder trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Jonathon..what are you thinking for the Sunday nite and Monday event? Colder trend? Blocking comes in a few different forms. You can have the proverbial "train wreck", where you just have a convoluted loopy pattern. You can have nice orderly big ridges aloft (geopotential) over D. Straight or the EPO domain, causing these nice sloping, well behaved S/W timings (1995). You can also have transient lower troposphere polar highs that cause all kinds of BL resistance to storms moving N because of cold dense air not allowing cyclones to move threw it..etc. This latter form was the type of"blocking" that the GFS tempted us with up until last night. Why it's abandoned the idea has to do with handling the N stream in Canada; probably no longer has much confluence. Now, the storm tracks in general are still going to move along the best gradient, which because of the stuff about the PV, the south corrections are intuitviely a good call. Unfortunately, even though that would tend to argue for a southern correction, it doesn't mean that has to happen. It doesn't sound very scientific to say this, but this year is really somehow - call it chaos and random dumb bad luck, I don't know - just not going to snow. It's going to be cold from time to time. It's going rain every so often. There's going to be transition intervals that would otherwise argue for good storm frequency. Yet, through all of that, it won't snow. That undeniable seasonal trend needs to be broken before... It's like watching a football game where one team is up by a TD and a FG... normally, that's overcomable? but the "tempo" of that game is just ad nauseam a loss. It seem's we're kinda backed into a bad omen this year. Doesn't sound very objective, I know. Seriously, the teleconnectors with the PNA being negative, the NAO struggling to fall (taking 10 days to get finally to 0.0 SD), the Lakes cutter could abide those teleconnectors regardless of the AO, and it's just a bad day that unfortunately is no homaged at all - it's just the way it is. What can you do - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GGEM and GFS both show a decent looking clipper/Miller B? out at D7-8, it's not major but it seems there's very slight ridging into the N atl on the GEFS around that time frame. Not the best setup but looks like we have some chances despite the ugly vortex in AK. (mets please correct me if my interpretation is wrong .. still trying to learn to read the 500 mb charts better) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Judged by Tip's words the long range isn't looking as blue dog cold as it was the other day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 the end of the 12z ec ens look decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Judged by Tip's words the long range isn't looking as blue dog cold as it was the other day? No comment on the "cold"... the commentary was bemusing the lack of snow ...the two are mutually exclusive. And it's dark humor only - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If we don't get a -NAO, we are again right on the line. Massive cold will flip PNA negative....I honestly don't see a big change quite yet in the next 2 weeks..it looks too close for comfort, if we can't get blocking. I hope we do. Here is what I mean. Notice the ridging in AK which has weakened at this point, or smoothed out due to being hr 360 of the ensemble mean. Also notice, the troughing in sw Canada. That's our negative PNA. Now look across into Greenland. Notice the ridge stabbing Greenland from the east-south east. That's the -NAO we want to see. The reason we want it, is because of what's going on down south. Notice across the se, that heights are above normal. Now notice the kink or trough across New Foundland. That is our confluence brought on by the -NAO. That confluence would help keep storms to our south, otherwise picture the scene without blocking. The storm track could very well be overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 no big fantasy snow storms in the future yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Here is what I mean. Notice the ridging in AK which has weakened at this point, or smoothed out due to being hr 360 of the ensemble mean. Also notice, the troughing in sw Canada. That's our negative PNA. Now look across into Greenland. Notice the ridge stabbing Greenland from the east-south east. That's the -NAO we want to see. The reason we want it, is because of what's going on down south. Notice across the se, that heights are above normal. Now notice the kink or trough across New Foundland. That is our confluence brought on by the -NAO. That confluence would help keep storms to our south, otherwise picture the scene without blocking. The storm track could very well be overhead. i would think that minimally it increases the odds of either forcing secondary lp development S of or over SNE at times...and increases the odds for front end frozen - something we haven't seen at all recently. and then you just hope we can squeeze out a couple of better, more traditional events as well. those higher heights up there are a nice 180 from having the PV situated over the DS region. if we get that, plus what looks like some good cold reloading into canada...i'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 i would think that minimally it increases the odds of either forcing secondary lp development S of or over SNE at times...and increases the odds for front end frozen - something we haven't seen at all recently. and then you just hope we can squeeze out a couple of better, more traditional events as well. those higher heights up there are a nice 180 from having the PV situated over the DS region. if we get that, plus what looks like some good cold reloading into canada...i'd take that. Agree entirely. I just hope that continues on guidance, otherwise we get close to having storms track over our fannies again. That NAO is key imo. I think this pattern coming up, looks a little better than what I remember seeing back near Jan 1 (this so called pattern change we are in now), so that's a plus. GEFS also don't seem all that bad either. But I'm still not entirely convinced yet...hopefully the next 3-4 days continue this. We all remember how good this current pattern change looked when it appeared on guidance....lol. The MJO trying to go into the western Pacific may at least help, but Nina climo will try to work against us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Agree entirely. I just hope that continues on guidance, otherwise we get close to having storms track over our fannies again. That NAO is key imo. I think this pattern coming up, looks a little better than what I remember seeing back near Jan 1 (this so called pattern change we are in now), so that's a plus. GEFS also don't seem all that bad either. But I'm still not entirely convinced yet...hopefully the next 3-4 days continue this. We all remember how good this current pattern change looked when it appeared on guidance....lol. The MJO trying to go into the western Pacific may at least help, but Nina climo will try to work against us too. yeah what i do like is it's now starting to show up on the tail end of the ec ens for me (which means day 9-10) and seems you were posting some stuff that had it in day 11-15...so hopefully it's legit. i'd also take that pattern in february over dec / early jan too. climo just more on the side of the coastal folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 yeah what i do like is it's now starting to show up on the tail end of the ec ens for me (which means day 9-10) and seems you were posting some stuff that had it in day 11-15...so hopefully it's legit. i'd also take that pattern in february over dec / early jan too. climo just more on the side of the coastal folks. That's true as well. I hope we can get back the good ole' days of Feb..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Also the low progged next Friday seems like it has trended a little more south in the last 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Agree entirely. I just hope that continues on guidance, otherwise we get close to having storms track over our fannies again. That NAO is key imo. I think this pattern coming up, looks a little better than what I remember seeing back near Jan 1 (this so called pattern change we are in now), so that's a plus. GEFS also don't seem all that bad either. But I'm still not entirely convinced yet...hopefully the next 3-4 days continue this. We all remember how good this current pattern change looked when it appeared on guidance....lol. The MJO trying to go into the western Pacific may at least help, but Nina climo will try to work against us too. Well three single digit days and 3 snow events certainly is a different pattern than we saw for two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well three single digit days and 3 snow events certainly is a different pattern than we saw for two months. True....but its also the middle of january and this is new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 True....but its also the middle of january and this is new england Even the "cold" days are winding up above normal lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well three single digit days and 3 snow events certainly is a different pattern than we saw for two months. Agreed, and I think this thread verified well. Though it's sad calling these "events" haha. Also funny how it seems like we haven't had many semi normal days. We're either 10-15 degrees above normal (usually) or 10-15 below normal (once or twice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Where are we through today on departures? I know Joe has them written on his wall somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 through 1/18 ... BOS ... +4.5 BDL ... +5.4 PVD ... +4.4 ORH ... +4.6 CON ... +5.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 No worries guys. Taunton just updated the forecast: Tonight: Snow. Temperature rising to around 11 by 4am. Southwest wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Friday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 16. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph increasing to between 18 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible. Friday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 8. Breezy, with a south southwest wind around 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 34 to 40 inches possible. Saturday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 9. South wind 15 to 18 mph decreasing to between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible. Saturday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 4. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible. Sunday: Snow. High near 9. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. (Mt. Baker, WA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 through 1/18 ... BOS ... +4.5 BDL ... +5.4 PVD ... +4.4 ORH ... +4.6 CON ... +5.0 What's interesting about those is that the high temperature for both the 17th and the 18th happened an hour either side of midnight between the 17th and 18th, where the day leading up to, and afterward, were below normal much of the time. The warm air was only present for 4 hours... That 2 days worth of plus +11 and +16, where that seriously belies the dominate air mass on those two days. I wonder how many other "warmer than normal" days cheated by stealing time at midnight - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Weeklies have 850mb torchfest across most of the country and Canada but definitely don't look bad for the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Weeklies have 850mb torchfest across most of the country and Canada but definitely don't look bad for the NE. Weak -NAO saves the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Weak -NAO saves the day Yeah they don't make me sick to my stomach for a change. I do think February will be warmer than normal in NE (and places to the west probably torch) but I could see the month averaging normal for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah they don't make me sick to my stomach for a change. I do think February will be warmer than normal in NE (and places to the west probably torch) but I could see the month averaging normal for snow. That's all we can ask for. I'd be thrilled with that. If we lose the -NAO we're cooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That's all we can ask for. I'd be thrilled with that. If we lose the -NAO we're cooked We need that bad. The EC weakened it overnight and makes it dicey again. I still think it's a little too close for comfort right now...not sure about how it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We need that bad. The EC weakened it overnight and makes it dicey again. I still think it's a little too close for comfort right now...not sure about how it evolves. Yeah...I didn't like that. In response the SE ridging gains more lat. Maybe I luck out, but it could even be messy at times for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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