Go Kart Mozart Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 We've turned a corner....and blizzardgeek's son is leading us from here on out. The torch is flaming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Starting to get a smile on my nice in the longer range. That's a face smile on your nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 That's a face smile on your nice LOL, WTF? Phone FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 LOL, WTF? Phone FTL. Just thought you slipped on the ice and banged your head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The thing that looked semi interesting to me, is that the cold will build again in western and central Canada, after it retrogrades. At that point, models want to raise the PNA just a bit, but also drop the nao into a negative phase after d10. If that would happen, the risk would be to bring some of that cold into the nrn tier. If we could get the PAC jet to shut off, it would put the risk of bring siggy cold into the US, but that does not seem to be in the cards quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The thing that looked semi erecting to me, is that the cold will build again in western and central Canada, after it retrogrades. At that point, models want to raise the PNA just a bit, but also drop the nao into a negative phase after d10. If that would happen, the risk would be to bring some of that cold into the nrn tier. If we could get the PAC jet to shut off, it would put the risk of bring siggy cold into the US, but that does not seem to be in the cards quite yet. Oh really - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I'm pretty taken by the overwhelming model agreement on events through next Sunday/Monday. NAM, Euro, CMC, GFS...hell, even the "GONAPS" model all have a light snow burst at 48 or so hours, followed by a somewhat more important event on Saturday. Actually, that Frankenmodel DGEX thing has over an inch of liq equiv for Saturday into Sunday at that. Haven't seen this kind of harmony in a while. They diverge after that of course... What they all do between 72 hours and 108 or so hours is develop a polar wall N of New England, and whether the GEFs teleconnecor picks that out or not, that is very -NAO looking to me. ...Could be one of those deals where the CPC's negative signal is not as pronounced as the CDC, because the latter uses the low level wind fluxes; the former employs the mid level geopotential anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Oh really - ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 ?? LOL, nevermind. Nice job, John..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 LOL, nevermind. Nice job, John..lol. Awesome! LOL - oh man, the double take must have been priceless - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow, check this out… There’s an “Extreme Cold Warning” in effect for the Dekotas… Never heard of that – heh. Here’s their latest obs: ASUS43 KBIS 181820 RWRBIS NWR BROADCAST TEXT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 1200 PM CST WED JAN 18 2012 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS WILLISTON SUNNY -14 -24 61 NW16G22 30.08R WCI -38 MINOT PTSUNNY -10 -20 61 NW22 29.99S WCI -36 MINOT AFB PTSUNNY -11 -20 64 NW17G25 30.00S WCI -35 BISMARCK CLOUDY -4 -13 65 N22G30 29.96R WCI -28 DICKINSON MOSUNNY -9 -18 64 NW16G23 29.91S WCI -32 GARRISON N/A -8 -17 64 NW22 29.96R WCI -33 HETTINGER ARPT MOSUNNY -4 -14 62 NW20G31 29.90R WCI -27 JAMESTOWN CLOUDY 0 -9 65 N18 29.82R WCI -22 $$ ***NDAWN STATIONS*** CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS $$ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS GRAND FORKS LGT SNOW -4 -10 75 N20 29.87S VSB 3/4 WCI -27 GRAND FORKS AF LGT SNOW -6 -11 77 N18 29.89R WCI -29 DEVILS LAKE CLOUDY -8 -15 71 N20 29.88R WCI -32 FARGO HVY SNOW 3 -2 78 NW22 29.79R VSB 1/4 WCI -19 $$ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS ABERDEEN LGT SNOW 16 9 73 NW24G37 29.77R WCI -3 MOBRIDGE CLOUDY 2 -6 69 NW25G36 29.85R WCI -22 BUFFALO N/A -6 -15 65 NW23 29.83R WCI -31 RAPID CITY CLOUDY 13 5 70 N32G45 29.78S WCI -9 GLASGOW SUNNY -17 -28 57 NW9 30.10R WCI -36 SIDNEY SUNNY -15 -22 70 NW13 30.11S WCI -37 WOLF POINT PTSUNNY -15 -25 60 NW9 30.13S WCI -34 GLENDIVE MOSUNNY -15 -24 64 NW12 30.02S WCI -36 MILES CITY CLOUDY -9 -18 64 NW12 30.04F WCI -28 BAKER MOSUNNY -9 -18 64 W16 29.94F WCI -32 $$ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BILLINGS LGT SNOW -8 -13 78 NE15 29.88F VSB 3/4 WCI -30 GREAT FALLS LGT SNOW -17 -24 70 NE6 29.89S WCI -31 REGINA MOSUNNY -18 -31 52 NW21 30.04F WCI -47 ESTEVAN SUNNY -17 -27 58 NW17 30.04 WCI -42 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Does the euro have the day 8 storm that was on the gfs with rain/far inland snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Does the euro have the day 8 storm that was on the gfs with rain/far inland snow? There's a day 9 cutter/SWFE with the primary going through BUF and a 1040 high east of Hudson Bay with a piece of the ridge nosing into NE...not that any of that matters at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow, check this out… There’s an “Extreme Cold Warning” in effect for the Dekotas… Never heard of that – heh. Yep you want to talk about extreme weather... the plains is where it's at. I don't believe the extreme cold advisories are operational yet. They are still experimental at some of the high plains WFOs. Everyone else continues to use an SPS to highlight extreme cold not meeting wind chill criteria. I imagine they'll replace wind chill advisories as a new all encompassing generic dangerous cold weather warning regardless of wind speed. Some one from NWS can correct me if any of that is wrong, but that's my understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The thing that looked semi interesting to me, is that the cold will build again in western and central Canada, after it retrogrades. At that point, models want to raise the PNA just a bit, but also drop the nao into a negative phase after d10. If that would happen, the risk would be to bring some of that cold into the nrn tier. If we could get the PAC jet to shut off, it would put the risk of bring siggy cold into the US, but that does not seem to be in the cards quite yet. It appears today's models that the PNA may want to stay more negative. Canada will become frigid again. It also appears we may have a weak -NAO. So, one would think the chances would get better into Feb, but I think we need to root for a modest -NAO at the least, because if the PNA gets to negative..it may become more gradient like. Either way, with even a weak -NAO..it helps keep the storm track a little further south. AK ridging has showed up much more today BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 So yes personally, I would like to see models have more of a -NAO, if we are battling a -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It appears today's models that the PNA may want to stay more negative. Canada will become frigid again. It also appears we may have a weak -NAO. So, one would think the chances would get better into Feb, but I think we need to root for a modest -NAO at the least, because if the PNA gets to negative..it may become more gradient like. Either way, with even a weak -NAO..it helps keep the storm track a little further south. AK ridging has showed up much more today BTW. It's funny how relative it all is though ... If the PNA stays negative, and the AO were to really get going in terms of flooding the middle latitudes with big-time cold (and it's already apparent), than a -PNA at under that circumstance is not nearly the same as one where the AO is demonstratively positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Huge release of cold air into western states in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It appears today's models that the PNA may want to stay more negative. Canada will become frigid again. It also appears we may have a weak -NAO. So, one would think the chances would get better into Feb, but I think we need to root for a modest -NAO at the least, because if the PNA gets to negative..it may become more gradient like. Either way, with even a weak -NAO..it helps keep the storm track a little further south. AK ridging has showed up much more today BTW. Notice how things have started to trend in the right direction lately? After the bottoming out fears of a 10 day torch, we see: a) overperforming storm the other day likelihood of region-wide 2 light-mod storms c) much shorter torch d) slowly and subtly improving long range progs with consistent -NAO signal e) highs showing up in the right places I think we are headed towards a good Feb...maybe real good as we finally lay down a base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro ens look good for SNE days 11-15 but bad for mid atl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's funny how relative it all is though ... If the PNA stays negative, and the AO were to really get going in terms of flooding the middle latitudes with big-time cold (and it's already apparent), than a -PNA at under that circumstance is not nearly the same as one where the AO is demonstratively positive. Well a -NAO and -PNA can be good of course, but you don't want a very -PNA neutral to +NAO with all the cold into the Plains of Canada and US....and a big gradient in the east. I know it can work out, we know it has, but it's been long enough of walking the line. I just hope the NAO is more negative, or we run into more of a mess again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If we don't get a -NAO, we are again right on the line. Massive cold will flip PNA negative....I honestly don't see a big change quite yet in the next 2 weeks..it looks too close for comfort, if we can't get blocking. I hope we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 If we don't get a -NAO, we are again right on the line. Massive cold will flip PNA negative....I honestly don't see a big change quite yet in the next 2 weeks..it looks too close for comfort, if we can't get blocking. I hope we do. The positive Scooter of the past few days has turned cautious all over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The positive Scooter of the past few days has turned cautious all over again I think it's still a little close for us though...I'd like to see a more -NAO. It's not caution flags...legit concern. If the NAO is modeled right now, I think we would be in good shape...but even Gibbs seemed to hint at this. Just hope we can get that storm track more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think it's still a little close for us though...I'd like to see a more -NAO. It's not caution flags...legit concern. If the NAO is modeled right now, I think we would be in good shape...but even Gibbs seemed to hint at this. Just hope we can get that storm track more south. Saturdays system is exactly as you speculated could happen when the EPO/PNA went negative. Overrunning systems are to me what windex is to Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Saturdays system is exactly as you speculated could happen when the EPO/PNA went negative. Overrunning systems are to me what windex is to Steve. It could be a gradient theme with us cashing in, but looking at H5....you can see how it could get dicey. I think we really need a -NAO here, so lets hope it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It could be a gradient theme with us cashing in, but looking at H5....you can see how it could get dicey. I think we really need a -NAO here, so lets hope it happens. Regarding the NAO this was an EXCELLENT write-up by DT last night. http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/01/big-bertha-and-the-butt-sisters/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It could be a gradient theme with us cashing in, but looking at H5....you can see how it could get dicey. I think we really need a -NAO here, so lets hope it happens. I think as long as we can keep Canada in the icebox we have chances with cold lurking nearby. Tonight's system appears to create enough of a transient block to help Saturday's. And as you mentioned, the modeled NAO will help. Fingers crossed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I think as long as we can keep Canada in the icebox we have chances with cold lurking nearby. Tonight's system appears to create enough of a transient block to help Saturday's. And as you mentioned, the modeled NAO will help. Fingers crossed... We need a sacrifice bunt here, the cutter is it, pump up heights in Greenland, an intentional walk then boom Carbo with the three run dinger. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 We need a sacrifice bunt here, the cutter is it, pump up heights in Greenland, an intentional walk then boom Carbo with the three run dinger. I like it. We have had a billion sacrifice bunts this winter, there still is no pattern change yet, as alluded to be scooter and others. Next week has multiple sacrificial lambs, enjoy the snow tonight and mix bag Saturday it should be a lot of fun cause its gone on Monday, enjoy whats in front of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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