HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Thursday night is more than flurries...a lot more IMHO. Hope you are right. Looks like "meh" to me on the guidance that I can sort of follow. How is the setup more favorable for more than an inch or 2? (not arguing, trying to learn...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Hope you are right. Looks like "meh" to me on the guidance that I can sort of follow. How is the setup more favorable for more than an inch or 2? (not arguing, trying to learn...) The signal is there for a nice little snowfall Thursday nite. Alot of folks are missing the boat on this one and looking to Saturday. There's a whole thread I started on the Thursday night snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z nam looks like maybe 1-2" Thu night-Friday. Although the 3 hour qpf amounts never amount to more then .05...but it looks like it snows off and on much of Thursday night and Friday morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The signal is there for a nice little snowfall Thursday nite. Alot of folks are missing the boat on this one and looking to Saturday. There's a whole thread I started on the Thursday night snow Yeah, I replied in the other thread. I don't understand it (how we get more than an inch) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 0z Euro long term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 let's hope the GFS ensembles have the right idea as we flip the calendar to February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12z GFS looked like a pretty solid storm for saturday, much better than the 0z Euro. Not sure if it's such a good thing to have it look good on the GFS at this stage though, but verbatim it would be a nice thump of snow probably 4-8" for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro's got a 2-3 day mild period next Tues-Thursday..then fropa back to normal...but it lost the cad signal it had for early/mid next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro's got a 2-3 day mild period next Tues-Thursday..then fropa back to normal...but it lost the cad signal it had for early/mid next week should be relatively cool into the weekend...after that...all bets are off. i think we could be pretty darn mild for the last 7 to 10 days of the month overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 should be relatively cool into the weekend...after that...all bets are off. i think we could be pretty darn mild for the last 7 to 10 days of the month overall. The Tuesday-Thursday timeframe next week looks pretty ugly ..I could see some 50's then. But it appears things want to cool off as we hit the last 3-5 days of the month and into Feb. With the AO forecast to tank again next week..we should at least have some normal chill and snow chances late late month and into Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 You can see the value of even rudimentary blocking in today's progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I think Saturday has a decent chance of snow. I think the trend could be a little more north, so we may have to watch, but the s/w is very weak. It's almost pure WAA and little in the way of positive vorticity advection. One would think it could slip south again...but not so sure about that. Regardless, something to watch. It also hangs a big high to the north with cold ne winds. Could see continual light snows through Sunday possible, as WAA also tries top continue aloft. Eventually we may see more of a mess Sunday Night into Monday. Still think we may be wedged in for a while next week, before possibly trying to warm up ahead of a cutter..but that is a little questionable right now. I would think at some point we warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I think Saturday has a decent chance of snow. I think the trend could be a little more north, so we may have to watch, but the s/w is very weak. It's almost pure WAA and little in the way of positive vorticity advection. One would think it could slip south again...but not so sure about that. Regardless, something to watch. It also hangs a big high to the north with cold ne winds. Could see continual light snows through Sunday possible, as WAA also tries top continue aloft. Eventually we may see more of a mess Sunday Night into Monday. Still think we may be wedged in for a while next week, before possibly trying to warm up ahead of a cutter..but that is a little questionable right now. I would think at some point we warm up. You've got me naked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 You've got me naked The Saturday deal is a little weird looking, so I wouldn't be shocked if something got screwed up, but as of now..would think something is in the cards. Looking at the GEFS, you can see a variety of solutions which lessens confidence in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro ensembles have a weak ridge in the NW Davis Straits on this run. They still have the AK low, but do back it up slightly more nw. Some troughing is indicated on this run..even some heights rises out west. It's certainly not nearly as good looking as the GEFS, which looked like they were run in JI's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The Tuesday-Thursday timeframe next week looks pretty ugly ..I could see some 50's then. But it appears things want to cool off as we hit the last 3-5 days of the month and into Feb. With the AO forecast to tank again next week..we should at least have some normal chill and snow chances late late month and into Feb I'll pack the tropical warmth for my return on Monday night. I knew I'd miss some (relatively) good winter weather. Alas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Euro ensembles have a weak ridge in the NW Davis Straits on this run. They still have the AK low, but do back it up slightly more nw. Some troughing is indicated on this run..even some heights rises out west. It's certainly not nearly as good looking as the GEFS, which looked like they were run in JI's basement. i'll take it over where we are coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The prolonged snow in the air this weekend has shown up from time to time, perhaps transitioning to an ice event. Precedence is there for this type of slow continuous overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 i'll take it over where we are coming from. Well with that blocking, it at least tries to squeeze stuff to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 LOL at 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 LOL at 18z GFS. If only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The models have ridging in NE Canada, that is kind of in an ugly position...but enough to at least limit a torch for this area. That's the block that is making the GFS have these weenie runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The models have ridging in NE Canada, that is kind of in an ugly position...but enough to at least limit a torch for this area. That's the block that is making the GFS have these weenie runs. 12-18 lollies of 24 verbatim, porno run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 12-18 lollies of 24 verbatim, porno run The 18z often sniffs out the good storms first. (Forky, since you are reading along, this is a joke. We often use humor in our threads.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 The anticipated torch has definitely been slowly but steadily downsized over the last several days of model runs. The steady parade of disturbances will be the main thing helping to knock down any threatening ridge. If one s/w amplifies over the rest, all bets are off and we're soaring through the 50's, but as long as they stay relatively closely spaced and delay amplification until they're east of the OV, could at least save us from premature summer. But how nice that would be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The 18z often sniffs out the good storms first. (Forky, since you are reading along, this is a joke. We often use humor in our threads.) Let's hope the blocking does materialize, that precipitous AO drop is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Starting to get a smile on my nice in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Starting to get a smile on my nice in the longer range. I hope that means I might have some wintry weather after I return. I'm so bummed I'm missing Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Starting to get a smile on my nice in the longer range. The AK vortex really took a hit on this run of the EC ens past d10. The weak ridging along the west coast and Greenland is nice to see. It was quite a flip from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 We've turned a corner....and blizzardgeek's son is leading us from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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