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Next week ... Cold temps, but will it snow?


OKpowdah

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Sounds like we have to worry more about rain Saturday then it missing to the south?

Well not necessarily. Either way, they'll be some wintry precip around, but it's too early to tell if this will be legit low pressure, or just a wave along a front and overrunning. It is interesting though.

The GEFS also are trying to limit the torch later next week. They have weak ridging at 500mb to our north in ne Canada, which may be trying to form a little more confluence and keeping the warmest air south. EC ensembles hinted at it too. It's still a pretty putrid set up.

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Don't get too excited about Saturday, because it is sort of a threading the needle deal.

Don't get too excited about anything because they're all like that. "If, but, almost, except, maybe, kinda, a little bit"; if any of those terms are employed this season, forget it.

I know Dr. Tip will come in and tell me that I'm being unobjective because my puppy was raped in the garage when I was a child, but it is what it is.

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Intereting appeal to this thing yesterday and the day before for that matter, seems to be nicely illustrated/suggested by this 12z NAM yet again. The antecedent cold ...and particularly dry air, makes for colder feedbacks; the system is moving so fast that by the time it processes out all this leading airmass type, it's over and we've cool fropa-ed.

One other thing, when lows travel on the N (polarward) side of the 540dm, warm sectors are usually not always as balmy as the snapshot synoptic image may suggest.

The NAM's QPF should agree with the GFS for most part, and show a band of low impact but impact nonetheless, frozen/freezing. Again, with the flow so light at the surface yet fast aloft, the interior may not get much above the mid 30s before going the other direction.

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Don't get too excited about anything because they're all like that. "If, but, almost, except, maybe, kinda, a little bit"; if any of those terms are employed this season, forget it.

I know Dr. Tip will come in and tell me that I'm being unobjective because my puppy was raped in the garage when I was a child, but it is what it is.

Admitting it is the first step toward deeper, more meaningful healing ...

:P

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Don't get too excited about anything because they're all like that. "If, but, almost, except, maybe, kinda, a little bit"; if any of those terms are employed this season, forget it.

I know Dr. Tip will come in and tell me that I'm being unobjective because my puppy was raped in the garage when I was a child, but it is what it is.

It's not like the previous events though. Better shot this weekend I think..even if we change to rain.

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Intereting appeal to this thing yesterday and the day before for that matter, seems to be nicely illustrated/suggested by this 12z NAM yet again. The antecedent cold ...and particularly dry air, makes for colder feedbacks; the system is moving so fast that by the time it processes out all this leading airmass type, it's over and we've cool fropa-ed.

One other thing, when lows travel on the N (polarward) side of the 540dm, warm sectors are usually not always as balmy as the snapshot synoptic image may suggest.

The NAM's QPF should agree with the GFS for most part, and show a band of low impact but impact nonetheless, frozen/freezing. Again, with the flow so light at the surface yet fast aloft, the interior may not get much above the mid 30s before going the other direction.

Hope so..but doubt it.

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that clipper looks like the real deal. NAM and GFS are both showing -12 u/bs through the snow crystal growth zone with total-totals in the mid-upper 50s. Lake-enhancement involved, too.

Even of it doesn't redevelop, it could have a 2-3hr window of some decent snows, as the who thing swings through.

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This pattern is getting\has clearly gotten to me.

Welp, if it is any concilation to you, I am incresingly confident for more of a wintery vibe tomorrow...

I'm calling - officially - for no highs at 40F for the interior, which means ...given to what falls around dawn combined with speed of the event being overwith so fast and back to CAA, this pittiful snow pack of 1.5" in the lowers, to 4 and change in the els, may be okay.

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