Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 This is why 850 s are not the tell all and undercutting LL cold can be a helluva way to run a torch. Above this depiction of ground temps at 180 hours are +5 850s. This shows the great majority of the region sub freezing. The light blue is plus 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 who would want 30s with stratus when it can be 60 and sunny? The ones that actually have a snowpack would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 My 2M temp is not nearly that cold. Another weenie smoothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Steve, that's right after the low passes, so naturally it will be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 who would want 30s with stratus when it can be 60 and sunny? All of us who enjoy the North for skiing, ice fishing down in the south, ya know folks who enjoy winter and winter sports. Not to mention I like them SSTS being dropped daily for future use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 We aren't really using 180 hour surface progs for temp discussions are we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 for those believing somebody's out to get winter wx lovers in the lower 48 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=10day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Cold is over performing today at least...NW flow FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Cold is over performing today at least...NW flow FTW. Nice to be in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 We aren't really using 180 hour surface progs for temp discussions are we? I pray your torch underperforms how how I pray LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 the euro is actually stronger and further west in the upper levels with the ridge... wes has mentioned that the euro tends to be overdone with ridges at that range. if the euro is indeed overdone, then we'd have a flatter ridge and less chance of CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I pray your torch underperforms how how I pray LOL We get a wind off the water and temps will be in the low to mid 40s...4-6 above normal. It doesn't have to hit 50 to be a torch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 the euro is actually stronger and further west in the upper levels with the ridge... wes has mentioned that the euro tends to be overdone with ridges at that range. if the euro is indeed overdone, then we'd have a flatter ridge and less chance of CAD Euro is usually more bullish (bias) with east coast troughing and sw us troughing. If anything, the euro would probably have a better CAD handle, but again..we are talking about day 7+ op runs, which doesn't mean much. The ensembles had it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The ones that actually have a snowpack would IDGAF about snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 the euro is actually stronger and further west in the upper levels with the ridge... wes has mentioned that the euro tends to be overdone with ridges at that range. if the euro is indeed overdone, then we'd have a flatter ridge and less chance of CAD Who cares? Difference between 50 and 60? I like my rain warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 We aren't really using 180 hour surface progs for temp discussions are we? Well you use 284 GFS progs to verify temps and storms..tit for tat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 For those looking for something to follow, the PACNW is getting clobbered next week by a high wind Heavy rain/snow event. They are already flying recons out near Hawaii for a day 5/6 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Nice to be in the teens. lol 10.4F here Close to teens. 9F a few miles to the N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Well in these horrible patterns, sometimes you get a renegade 24 hrs that are actually favorable for snow and/or ice for someone. We'll just have to see if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 lol 10.4F here Close to teens. 9F a few miles to the N Maybe snowpack helping? You are like 3 colder than ORH..but I suspect ORH temp sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Well you use 284 GFS progs to verify temps and storms..tit for tat? No, I look at it for a rough pattern, not talking about temps. At the time I posted that...a lot of you were on the blizzard train through March....was using it to point out things would probably break up after the initial cold shot...worked out okay. I'll go take a look at 320 hour 2m temps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Maybe snowpack helping? You are like 3 colder than ORH..but I suspect ORH temp sometimes. You "SUSPECT" alot of temps lol...but ORH does run warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Maybe snowpack helping? You are like 3 colder than ORH..but I suspect ORH temp sometimes. Possibly a lame thermometer for me as well. But the mesomap has a number of 10s, 11s, and a few 9s up thoward the NH border Wachusett's website has a reading of 0F, but I am not sure what thermometer that is hooked up to. Summit? The cafeteria's freezer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 IDGAF about snowpack And nobody up here cares what you think about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 You "SUSPECT" alot of temps lol...but ORH does run warm Because we hate false readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Well you use 284 GFS progs to verify temps and storms..tit for tat? what type of tat? dendrites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Maybe snowpack helping? You are like 3 colder than ORH..but I suspect ORH temp sometimes. I was thinking about this this morning. Do models take into account snowpack when forecasting temps? Also, What are some other "intangible data" that affects forecasts but can't be imported into the computer as model data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 the euro is actually stronger and further west in the upper levels with the ridge... wes has mentioned that the euro tends to be overdone with ridges at that range. if the euro is indeed overdone, then we'd have a flatter ridge and less chance of CAD Alaska cant afford anymore snow.... http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/317860 20 feet of snow since January 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I was thinking about this this morning. Do models take into account snowpack when forecasting temps? Also, What are some other "intangible data" that affects forecasts but can't be imported into the computer as model data? As far as I know..computer models do factor that in, in some shape or form. It has to do with albedo and I think climo too. I may be wrong though..I never looked into that. Edit: you are thinking of MOS. In a sense..MOS would probably take snow into account,especially in NNE since it is a statistical product and we obviously know NNE is supposed to have snowpack. But MOS also takes into account current regimes, so sometimes in a warm pattern..it may not be cold enough when we finally get a cold shot. MOS is a very complicated product, but an awesome tool. As far as other intangibles...models sometimes cannot see mesoscale details simply because the resolution isn't good enough. They are pretty dam good at "hinting" at it, but may not resolve the finer details. Examples would be cold seabreeze in the spring time, and elevation icing in central mass. In those cases, the forecaster must take into account past experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 JB tweeting about major warmth end of month....just doomed the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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