Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 EC ensembles still try to put some very weak ridging at the end of the period. They also try to weaken the AK vortex, so we'll see what Feb brings. Until then..it gets nasty. This is NYC on the GEFS from 0 Z, is this wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 EC ensembles still try to put some very weak ridging at the end of the period. They also try to weaken the AK vortex, so we'll see what Feb brings. Until then..it gets nasty. After 10 days of Hell, Feb is going to rock, very snow, not bitter cold thankfully but very,very snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Its going to bring me great pleasure watching your snow melt away next weekend and mrg close yet again Now go have fun in the snow! Heading to the mountain after breakfast. My wife is making snowflake shaped pancakes.lol I'll think of you when I'm neck deep in blower powder in a few weeks. Maybe I can Fed-Ex you a box of authentic AK snow. That's probably the only way you'll see snow this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Heading to the mountain after breakfast. My wife is making snowflake shaped pancakes.lol I'll think of you when I'm neck deep in blower powder in a few weeks. Maybe I can Fed-Ex you a box of authentic AK snow. That's probably the only way you'll see snow this go round. lol Lets get a 4some together for the week after next, play somewhere in the valley, greens are and will be open, and with temps in the 60s should be perfect./ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 As far as NNE losing their snow. Euro ENS says ya well,not. Base Graph Table Montreal/Dorval (AP) Date Minimum Mean Maximum Std. Derivation 15.01.2012 00 GMT -21.6 °C ± 0.3 °C 16.01.2012 00 GMT -18.1 °C ± 0.4 °C 17.01.2012 00 GMT -7.8 °C ± 0.8 °C 18.01.2012 00 GMT -2.7 °C ± 2.3 °C 19.01.2012 00 GMT -16.0 °C ± 1.2 °C 20.01.2012 00 GMT -12.3 °C ± 2.2 °C 21.01.2012 00 GMT -12.8 °C ± 5.1 °C 22.01.2012 00 GMT -6.6 °C ± 4.7 °C 23.01.2012 00 GMT -1.1 °C ± 4.6 °C 24.01.2012 00 GMT -0.2 °C ± 6.2 °C 25.01.2012 00 GMT -3.7 °C ± 6.3 °C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 This is NYC on the GEFS from 0 Z, is this wrong? An 11-15 day mean of 0C at 850mb is beyond brutal. That's +6 above normal on an 11-15 day mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The Tues-Wed event is looking quite good up here all the sudden as long as it doesn't trend any warmer. BTV is talking similar set up to Friday once the low passes... because any deepening low that tracks towards northern ME is climo best location for upslope. Need it right over Vim Toot for mixing maritime moisture wrap around with orographics. Nice warm frontal snows over this brutally cold airmass right now (still hitting upper 40s below zero on wind chill right now) and these have been over-producing this season, so a few inches possible first half of Tuesday. NAM and GFS are in pretty good agreement right now. We'll probably briefly mix with sleet or marginal rain/ZR, but also could be all snow as the H85 never makes it north of here. It just sort of kisses this area then heads east. Then another blast of upslope white gold with a climo favored track into northern ME. H85s below -10C is critical for high ratio orographic snows. Probably not a huge event but BTV says Advisory level 3-6" type snowfall for the inhabited areas, with locally higher amounts mtns and ski resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Could be icy over the interior Monday Night. Snow or ZR may occur. That may be our only threat for now. The Friday storms looks worse and worse. Maybe the one later Saturday could do something in the far interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 An 11-15 day mean of 0C at 850mb is beyond brutal. That's +6 above normal on an 11-15 day mean. That's NYC of course but is that 50's and 60's for ten days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 That's NYC of course but is that 50's and 60's for ten days? Well of course not. Any little high could build in and it cools off. Perhaps some in the interior of ice too. But it's a mild overall pattern. BTW, I was commenting more or less on the EC 850 temps. GFS are a couple of degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Could be icy over the interior Monday Night. Snow or ZR may occur. That may be our only threat for now. The Friday storms looks worse and worse. Maybe the one later Saturday could do something in the far interior. Yeah I doubt this arctic chill gets scoured out very easily. East of the Greens/Berks/Taconics this is not going to warm up quickly. The low level jet just isn't that strong, but it also means precip should be mainly light and spotty in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Could be icy over the interior Monday Night. Snow or ZR may occur. That may be our only threat for now. The Friday storms looks worse and worse. Maybe the one later Saturday could do something in the far interior. Yeah I've been mentioning this all morning. Could see a nice glaze for the Tue AM commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Well of course not. Any little high could build in and it cools off. Perhaps some in the interior of ice too. But it's a mild overall pattern. BTW, I was commenting more or less on the EC 850 temps. GFS are a couple of degrees colder. You did see my post I was not talking about you in the woe is me past predicts the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 You did see my post I was not talking about you in the woe is me past predicts the future? Yeah it's all good. I don't take anything personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Yeah it's all good. I don't take anything personally. Me either, cold issues at work, just got back after a 5 am wake up. First cold day of the season.HDD wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Why don't you worry about your own snow cover. OOOOps, sorry, I forgot, The east slope is very good at retaining snow. Grass is coming to a neighborhood near you(well you don't have any).And I ain't talking the hemp you puff puff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Time to start getting the sun block ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Meh A day where we hit 50 won't kill me We are so used to this +5 sh it lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 The clear blue skies look amazing this morning! If only it were 50 degrees warmer ...well no problem, it will be next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Nice day to be outside sleeveless today 5.4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Man its beautiful out, 14 and sunny, walking with the kids around the block, heading north was brisk but heading back the other way downwind and into the sun was as pleasant as could be. Really starting to notice the sun higher in the sky, and it felt awesome on our faces. freezing rain for the distant interior tom night? Awesome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Yeah that won't shut them down... most of them up north won't lose a substantial part of the base they have now I don't think. The stuff they make has staying power. The fluff that fell the last few days doesn't. But it won't matter...most are in pretty good shape now and I bet it stays that way unless we get a couple of real nasty cutters. Still shocked by the relative paucity of people on the mountains compared to previous years, looks like a week day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The stuff they make has staying power. The fluff that fell the last few days doesn't. But it won't matter...most are in pretty good shape now and I bet it stays that way unless we get a couple of real nasty cutters. Still shocked by the relative paucity of people on the mountains compared to previous years, looks like a week day. It's so cold today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 It's so cold today! Was pretty brutal last MLK when I was there and the lines were 20x longer. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The stuff they make has staying power. The fluff that fell the last few days doesn't. But it won't matter...most are in pretty good shape now and I bet it stays that way unless we get a couple of real nasty cutters. Still shocked by the relative paucity of people on the mountains compared to previous years, looks like a week day. What was packed yesterday is not today... its just too cold. I can't even blame people, its too cold for me and most of us who are on the mountain daily. Its almost to the point of being dangerous. You want to curl up into the fetal position and cry at the summit this morning. Its hard to describe what -40F to -50F wind chills feel like with a stiff 30mph wind rocking you at -18F. We hit -50F for a windchill at one point this morning with a low of -20F. Its now up to -13F with a wind chill of -30 to -40F. Its at that point where if you get hurt and need to wait sitting still for ski patrol or a sled, you could have a serious issue. Also, were a lift to brake down now and an evac necessary, that is also a very serious problem. We shut down our slow double today (15 minute ride) for skier safety. Ski industry can't buy a break this year... busiest day of the season yesterday, well over the skier forecast numbers, and looking very promising for the weekend... only to be followed by the brutally coldest day of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Was pretty brutal last MLK when I was there and the lines were 20x longer. Odd. Nope, not this cold. I am seeing a 6am temp of 13F at the base, and 5F at the summit on the Sunday of MLK weekend last year. That's much different feeling from -7F and -18F. A 20F difference to be exact and makes a big difference in sensible weather at those temps. Trust me, yesterday showed that folks are here to ski. Every place in town is sold out, too. A record 22 buses were here yesterday. I have no doubt this place would be packed if it was about 20F warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 12z models still look good for WAA snows... good high ratio stuff too as the warm runs over the arctic cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Nope, not this cold. I am seeing a 6am temp of 13F at the base, and 5F at the summit on the Sunday of MLK weekend last year. That's much different feeling from -7F and -18F. A 20F difference to be exact and makes a big difference in sensible weather at those temps. Trust me, yesterday showed that folks are here to ski. Every place in town is sold out, too. A record 22 buses were here yesterday. I have no doubt this place would be packed if it was about 20F warmer. On MLK day it was extremely cold, I skied Killington that day and stuck to the Needles Eye area most of that day since it is decently well protected. I want to say that the highs were in the single digits at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 This Monday night into Tuesday deal could be prolonged ice in the far interior. Not heavy QPF, but perhaps more prolonged light icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Everyone's favorite bad met throws in the towel on winter..so maybe Feb does have a shot Is there any hope that February could give us a reprieve to the incessant mild, tranquil weather? Using the 1989 analog (which may not be wise, given that a moderate/strong La Nina episode was in play), an Alaskan motherlode came crashing into the northern two thirds of the contiguous U.S. That scenario brought some snow and mix events and brief periods of intense cold before the sun angle started working its magic and the upper low weakened. The weakening -ENSO signal might play a role (a neutral state seems likely for the coming spring, summer and fall) in encouraging more amplification of ridges and troughs. But the paltry snow cover, lack of viable tropical forcing and persistence of this accursed pattern tells me that aside from two or three minor deviations, Old Man Winter has left town. Get set for some mild conditions nationally through at least the end of the month. That NAEFS super-ensemble chart has said repeatedly that the cold would never visit the middle latitudes, and guess what? It has been correct, and features even WARMER anomalies as we end the month of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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