Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Dude, 570 thicknesses into KS!! Oh yeah .. this reminds me of a thought I had the other day, Kevin - Nina winters tend to --> big tornado springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Everything trended warmer from last night. If the EC ensembles agree...so much for any boundary near SNE. Wagons north....... .... to Hudson Bay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I am laughing my azz off at all the posts this AM. My sig has not changed in some time. "Winter is on full hiatus until further notice..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 i guess we can keep our eyes on the bahamas...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Now all we are missing is something tropical in the atlantic......oh wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Dude, 570 thicknesses into KS!! Imagine being one of those guys that thought this was the be all and end all pattern flip? Seriously....they're sitting in a dark basement right now lashing themselves like the guy in Davinci Code. Epic epic failure. So many people so wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I am laughing my azz off at all the posts this AM. My sig has not changed in some time. "Winter is on full hiatus until further notice..." You and I have been on the same page for most of the indian summer. Winter is probably going to be a total no-show and we might as well enjoy history in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Actually the D7 Euro doesn't look too bad - it has a kind of an icing appeal from the GL into western NY. Thing is, with the big SPV up there, the mean polar boundary could very well situate/be locked into 40N. In any event, that flat wave moving through the MV could help lop some overrunning cold QPF types on the polarward side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 >+16 850s to Kansas City. Dear God. The worst part is there's actually a Sonoran heat release signal!!!!!! Their record high for 1/22 is 70, the 850 temp is only about 8 degrees lower than that, the all time record is 75 in 1950..the all time record for February is 83. I'd imagine that would have a shot at getting broken in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 You and I have been on the same page for most of the indian summer. Winter is probably going to be a total no-show and we might as well enjoy history in the making. And we will resoundingly get ball-busted when a snowstorm does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Actually the D7 Euro doesn't look too bad - it has a kind of an icing appeal from the GL into western NY. Thing is, with the big SPV up there, the mean polar boundary could very well situate/be locked into 40N. In any event, that flat wave moving through the MV could help lop some overrunning cold QPF types on the polarward side. I think our only real shot for wintry wx is the clipper next Friday...perhaps some icing from a wave after that, but it looks like these waves want to amp up a bit too much to allow for that. Its pretty incredible just how brutally cold it is north of the US/Canada border, but that gradient is just set up too far north for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 And we will resoundingly get ball-busted when a snowstorm does happen. Wouldn't you rather be ball-busted once versus the guys insisting on a pattern change with cold and snow chances that have been consistently wrong for three months now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 this euro run is painful to watch on many levels. Wow.. as if it couldn't get any worse. As bad (warm/torch) as may be the the week after 1/22, my gut is telling me that it will be short lived and the long range guidance does support that but it's out in fantasy land so I guess we'll see. Yesterday's storm was supposed to be in Buffalo when it was in the long range so you never know. Besides, that's our January Thaw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Wouldn't you rather be ball-busted once versus the guys insisting on a pattern change with cold and snow chances that have been consistently wrong for three months now? Don't care really. I just call m like I see it. This ones been a dead ratter since Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Hopefully the euro ensembles continue to try and show that ridging up in the DS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 All long range torch talk aside...Euro has a brutally cold day on Sunday...it has 2m temps in the lower teens for highs over the interior...even BOS struggling to get out of the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 As bad (warm/torch) as may be the the week after 1/22, my gut is telling me that it will be short lived and the long range guidance does support that but it's out in fantasy land so I guess we'll see. Yesterday's storm was supposed to be in Buffalo when it was in the long range so you never know. Besides, that's our January Thaw! What constitutes a "thaw" this winter? Seriously? Its gotta be like upper 60s low 70s right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 And we will resoundingly get ball-busted when a snowstorm does happen. Oh I'm sure, and I do think the gods will align and we will have that period that produces a snow event. We aren't going to go with 1.5" of snow in boston for the entire winter. But that said, there's no disguising how poorly this winter has performed unless your totally deluded. This is not good for ski areas either, even those with snow face a tough sell when it's swimsuit weather in January. I think our only real shot for wintry wx is the clipper next Friday...perhaps some icing from a wave after that, but it looks like these waves want to amp up a bit too much to allow for that. Its pretty incredible just how brutally cold it is north of the US/Canada border, but that gradient is just set up too far north for us. Blows that most of the time the shots are either straight down, but more often then not at an ESE trajectory the rest of the time causing everything to form too far east when we do get the cold. Wouldn't you rather be ball-busted once versus the guys insisting on a pattern change with cold and snow chances that have been consistently wrong for three months now? The last two years all you had to do is go cold and you'd win. I've never seen warmth like this in my life and probably never will again. Don't care really. I just call m like I see it. This ones been a dead ratter since Nov. Same here. I rarely dig into the long range stuff but this has seemed pretty clear to me since I made the bet with Jerry. This one just wreaks warm. I think we still don't get long term patterns well. By nature we want to look at everything in terms of years and I think that isn't the way nature works. I think it's multi-year cycles and we're at the back end of the 2-3 year snow period and we're averaging it all out. It's the end of the overall macro pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think our only real shot for wintry wx is the clipper next Friday...perhaps some icing from a wave after that, but it looks like these waves want to amp up a bit too much to allow for that. Its pretty incredible just how brutally cold it is north of the US/Canada border, but that gradient is just set up too far north for us. yeah that's what pains me the most about these runs. unbelievable cold just sitting there and so expansive...yet getting it down here will be so difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Yes, good point actually. What an absolute epic fail. Our worst fears about the pattern and the subsequent change have come true. Doesn't it actually have to happen before this can be declared? I realize that there appears to be a lot of support for warmth at this point, but this post (and many others like it) seem a tad too definitive. I have a feeling that the slam-dunk tone wouldn't be there if the long-range was showing prolonged Arctic cold and multiple KU's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 any shot OES's over plymouth/C.C late sat nite sun am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 any shot OES's over plymouth/C.C marginal for the outer cape sunday - there will be some CHH to PVC area but probably not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think our only real shot for wintry wx is the clipper next Friday...perhaps some icing from a wave after that, but it looks like these waves want to amp up a bit too much to allow for that. Its pretty incredible just how brutally cold it is north of the US/Canada border, but that gradient is just set up too far north for us. Yeah, agree for the most part - I was really just sort of spit-balling to throw the heartachers a bone. I posted earlier...I analyzed the TC's from over night and as is, ....not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 yeah that's what pains me the most about these runs. unbelievable cold just sitting there and so expansive...yet getting it down here will be so difficult. Hopefully if we can get any ridging up north, it can help deflect things after week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Everything trended warmer from last night. If the EC ensembles agree...so much for any boundary near quebec fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 OK, I don't beleive this for a moment, but let me spin a positive scenario: In the map below, you will see a low that has just crossed 180w. In another day, this low will be on the southwest flank of the big vortex spinning in the Gulf of Alaska. The two will phase, creating a monster vortex near 160w 50n. This leads to a huge PNA spike, which in turn sends a big chunk of the cold air over Canada plunging southeastward: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think we still don't get long term patterns well. By nature we want to look at everything in terms of years and I think that isn't the way nature works. I think it's multi-year cycles and we're at the back end of the 2-3 year snow period and we're averaging it all out. It's the end of the overall macro pattern. I can't agree enough with this statement. The only thing that I would add is that the cycles can last an indefinite amount of time...some are short, some are long but I think you were alluding to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I can't agree enough with this statement. The only thing that I would add is that the cycles can last an indefinite amount of time...some are short, some are long but I think you were alluding to that. I think we naturally don't notice some of the fluctuations in the summer so we tend to think of patterns mainly in the winter. If you look at this couple of year trend...and my memory is horrific so maybe I'm wrong...but a couple of years ago the snow was way to our south. Last year it moved north over us, and this year the battle lines are so far north we're rarely able to form storms that have a snow impact. IMO a couple of year pattern tied to what's going on in the huge bodies of water etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I think we naturally don't notice some of the fluctuations in the summer so we tend to think of patterns mainly in the winter. If you look at this couple of year trend...and my memory is horrific so maybe I'm wrong...but a couple of years ago the snow was way to our south. Last year it moved north over us, and this year the battle lines are so far north we're rarely able to form storms that have a snow impact. IMO a couple of year pattern tied to what's going on in the huge bodies of water etc. Part of the problem is people equate pattern change to "it will finally snow in my backyard". It's not that simple. Saying conus is going to torch past day 8 seems like a really good bet. Could it be short lived or muted in new England? Sure! That doesn't mean the forecast busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This is an interesting read, current too. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ewx/wxevent/laninascntrltx.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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