OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Continuing the long range pattern discussion... Within the next 48 hours, we can watch as the hemispheric pattern breaks down from a relatively zonal flow to an amplified flow... 1) This amplification corresponds with a significant trough dropping into the Plains, downstream of a brief small spike in PNA ridging, and we have opened the doors to a notable Canadian airmass. 2) Model guidance is still adamant about rapidly amplifying ridging from the Aleutians poleward this weekend ... and quickly bridging across toward northern Russia. 3) As the Plains trough moves through New England and breaks northeast, it helps to pull and consolidate the polar vortex further south. We still however lack a -NAO ... though the GEFS has been suggesting retrograding the northern Russia ridging westward toward Greenland. This pattern strongly supports maintaining low heights and below normal temperatures across much of Canada. Thus we have our gradient in formation across the northern tier of the U.S. When that gradient tips in our favor, we can get intrusions of the arctic airmass building just to our north. As for storm opportunities, the temperature gradient offers overrunning scenarios even with weak waves. When the southern stream gets involved, it could get interesting ... but then we also still need to have some degree of well timed transient blocking to stay on the cold side of the gradient. Both the 12z GFS and 12z Euro offered some possibilities next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Well well.....guess what gets introduced on the weeklies in week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Well well.....guess what gets introduced on the weeklies in week 4. Alaskan Vortex or -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Alaskan Vortex or -NAO? AK vortex week 3. Then, a weak -NAO week 4. It's week 4, but it looked like the ensembles were trying to get something going right at the tail end, so it doesn't seem out to lunch. It does confirm our thoughts about the pattern getting lousy possibly after week 2 for a time, but it's really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 AK vortex week 3. Then, a weak -NAO week 4. It's week 4, but it looked like the ensembles were trying to get something going right at the tail end, so it doesn't seem out to lunch. It does confirm our thoughts about the pattern getting lousy possibly after week 2 for a time, but it's really close. just seems to me that the MR and LR forecasts of the Euro used to be better a few years ago before they made it "better" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 The GEFS definitely want to reintroduce the AK bowling ball, but may save us with a -NAO Also, will be interesting to see where the next stratospheric warming takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 just seems to me that the MR and LR forecasts of the Euro used to be better a few years ago before they made it "better" Why do you say that based on what I said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro weeklies in some circles are being talked about as bad or worse than what we just went thru. Other circles on here say not so bad .Not sure who to believe or what to think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro weeklies in some circles are being talked about as bad or worse than what we just went thru. Other circles on here say not so bad .Not sure who to believe or what to think Whatever the case may be, this next week should offer up some opportunities for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro weeklies in some circles are being talked about as bad or worse than what we just went thru. Other circles on here say not so bad .Not sure who to believe or what to think It's not worse. For some it will be bad I think...especially south of NYC. No offense to anyone there. It even gets ugly here briefly, before getting a little better. It just depends where that gradient is. 80 miles will mean the world. Our latitude helps us out, but we may have to deal with a crappy storm or two in week 3..the ensembles hinted at it, as we talked about earlier. But, if the block is a little stronger which is possible..then even we could cash in. The EC ensembles verbatim were still ok here, but were too close for my comfort by the end of the run, in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It's not worse. For some it will be bad I think...especially south of NYC. No offense to anyone there. It even gets ugly here briefly, before getting a little better. It just depends where that gradient is. 80 miles will mean the world. Our latitude helps us out, but we may have to deal with a crappy storm or two in week 3..the ensembles hinted at it, as we talked about earlier. But, if the block is a little stronger which is possible..then even we could cash in. The EC ensembles verbatim were still ok here, but were too close for my comfort by the end of the run, in SNE I think those other circles are looking at the whole country and not just the Northeast which is why they make it seem so b ad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It's not worse. For some it will be bad I think...especially south of NYC. No offense to anyone there. It even gets ugly here briefly, before getting a little better. It just depends where that gradient is. 80 miles will mean the world. Our latitude helps us out, but we may have to deal with a crappy storm or two in week 3..the ensembles hinted at it, as we talked about earlier. But, if the block is a little stronger which is possible..then even we could cash in. The EC ensembles verbatim were still ok here, but were too close for my comfort by the end of the run, in SNE I would say south does look in trouble if they verify considering this from the KPHL region on the weeklies: Week 1 +2 Week 2 0 Week 3 +5 Week 4 +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I would say south does look in trouble if they verify considering this from the KPHL region on the weeklies: Week 1 +2 Week 2 0 Week 3 +5 Week 4 +1 Hence why I said we may see regional hatred..lol. Perhaps even in New England. You are going to blowtorch south of the gradient, while north could be cool to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think those other circles are looking at the whole country and not just the Northeast which is why they make it seem so b ad Well it is bad here week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well it is bad here week 3. What does it show for me here in Toronto or SOntario. Input for Western Canada would be nice too....just trying to get an average jet stream pattern here. Does it atleast show a neutral AO anomaly whereas the previous weeklies did not show that, expect a torch. Any -EPO? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Kudos to Donny Baseball, he has a very reasoned approach to this winter. Never doubt the Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What does it show for me here in Toronto or SOntario. Input for Western Canada would be nice too....just trying to get an average jet stream pattern here. Does it atleast show a neutral AO anomaly whereas the previous weeklies did not show that, expect a torch. Any -EPO? Thanks! They weren't bad for Toronto standards. Week 3 was the worst with higher heights. It's an icebox for wrn Canada, especially week 2-3. Week 4 had a semblance of a +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hence why I said we may see regional hatred..lol. Perhaps even in New England. You are going to blowtorch south of the gradient, while north could be cool to cold. How well have they been verifying so far? Also adam did not know the answer to this so I will ask you..Do they take into consideration the strat warming down welling? Thank you very much for answering it is very much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 They weren't bad for Toronto standards. Week 3 was the worst with higher heights. It's an icebox for wrn Canada, especially week 2-3. Week 4 had a semblance of a +PNA. Thanks man. I would assume a gradient pattern is in place esp with La Nina climo starting to kick in as well. You did mention a return of the AK vortex in week 3 but a weakening there after. Again if we can develop a -AO anomaly by week 3 depending where the next stratospheric warming will take us perhaps things can change. WCanada has had it much worse than us by there standards....there well over 15 degrees above normal (F) Any thoughts on what Feb. may hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 How well have they been verifying so far? Also adam did not know the answer to this so I will ask you..Do they take into consideration the strat warming down welling? Thank you very much for answering it is very much appreciated! Adam actually might know better than myself, since he dabbles in long range. My guess is that they probably aren't able to forecast or "see" something like that in week 3 or week 4. They haven't done bad at all. They have been warm since the fall. I think week 3 looks reasonable, but little things like exact placement of the block or retrograding PV...hell even MJO subtleties will have an impact..especially those that walk the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 How well have they been verifying so far? Also adam did not know the answer to this so I will ask you..Do they take into consideration the strat warming down welling? Thank you very much for answering it is very much appreciated! Adam actually might know better than myself, since he dabbles in long range. My guess is that they probably aren't able to forecast or "see" something like that in week 3 or week 4. They haven't done bad at all. They have been warm since the fall. I think week 3 looks reasonable, but little things like exact placement of the block or retrograding PV...hell even MJO subtleties will have an impact..especially those that walk the line. Sorry, I should have been more clear. They quite obviously have the physics to create a downwelling stratospheric warming (the model itself is the Euro ensemble coupled to a dynamic ocean), but I don't know if they have skill in forecasting them 3-4 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Thanks guys! Here is to hoping we get down welling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sorry, I should have been more clear. They quite obviously have the physics to create a downwelling stratospheric warming, but I don't know if they have skill in forecasting them 3-4 weeks out. Yeah ok...that's kind of what I meant. Maybe if the warming makes a significant impact now through week 2 it can forecast it out, but I don't think they would do a good job seeing that during week 3 or 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah ok...that's kind of what I meant. Maybe if the warming makes a significant impact now through week 2 it can forecast it out, but I don't think they would do a good job seeing that during week 3 or 4. I suspect that it might have SOME skill, because mountain torque events can be forced by the MJO, and the model does have skill at forecasting the MJO. I have no idea what kind of circulations it can adequately simulate in the stratosphere to have internal waves force warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I suspect that it might have SOME skill, because mountain torque events can be forced by the MJO, and the model does have skill at forecasting the MJO. I have no idea what kind of circulations it can adequately simulate in the stratosphere to have internal waves force warming. Hopefully you guys can get some wx. I don't have a great feeling for your area, but any little ridging out west could help. Lets hope the weeklies have an idea of something getting going in the Davis Straits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The -NAO getting going late on the weeklies is the first time I think its had anything over that region. The AK vortex coming back sucks though. But if we can keep the E Siberian ridge poleward enough, we can still generate cross polar flow over the top of the AK vortex...and in conjunction with a developing -NAO, might be a pretty decent pattern...but that is a big if. We will torch if that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Why do you say that based on what I said? nah, based on how the Euro has been doing this winter imby disregarding the 5H scoring, I am judging it purely based on forecasts and actual sensible wx at BWI from prior years, the Euro was pure money within 3 days; not here this year and not so much last year either the Euro has actually given me more cyber snow than the GFS this year! maybe I'm speakin' out my butt, but anyone here who is as happy with the Euro w/in 84 hrs as they were 2+ years ago, raise your hand, but I'll keep my arms folded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 nah, based on how the Euro has been doing this winter imby disregarding the 5H scoring, I am judging it purely based on forecasts and actual sensible wx at BWI from prior years, the Euro was pure money within 3 days; not here this year and not so much last year either the Euro has actually given me more cyber snow than the GFS this year! maybe I'm speakin' out my butt, but anyone here who is as happy with the Euro w/in 84 hrs as they were 2+ years ago, raise your hand, but I'll keep my arms folded LOL, it just nailed this event down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOL, it just nailed this event down there. 1st, GFS showed a minor accum around DCA/BWI a day before the Euro, then played around with it as far as nailing it, it did well in N VA, but not imby I had a "heavy" coating, and Balt City on north only saw some flurries; Euro had it further north so, all in all, GFS did better imho imby but, admittedly, it was such a minor event the diff between something noteworthy and nothing was a matter of about 20 miles so I probably wouldn;t use it as a test for any of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 1st, GFS showed a minor accum around DCA/BWI a day before the Euro, then played around with it as far as nailing it, it did well in N VA, but not imby I had a "heavy" coating, and Balt City on north only saw some flurries; Euro had it further north so, all in all, GFS did better imho imby but, admittedly, it was such a minor event the diff between something noteworthy and nothing was a matter of about 20 miles so I probably wouldn;t use it as a test for any of the models well gee, after a failure like that, I'd say the Euro is pretty much useless. How did the JMA do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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