Snowstorms Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well according to the 0z Nam I grab a couple of inches too with a decent amount of cold air aloft . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sigh... just waiting for the inevitable slide NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't think Ray should be left out of dicsussion either, since he's in ne mass which is closer to CAD source and also had colder mid level temps. Of course that's if the low behaves as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice interior mess on the NAM. Even down here it's a slopfest with northerly ageo flow in BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Even down here it's a slopfest with northerly ageo flow in BL. Yeah the CAD isn't the question I don't think...it's the mid levels. Hopefully two things can happen. First is to have the confluence stronger and south. Second, is to have the srn vort try to gain longitude before moving north in advance of that big ULL in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe Kevin can get 5 more days w/o power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't think Ray should be left out of dicsussion either, since he's in ne mass which is closer to CAD source and also had colder mid level temps. Of course that's if the low behaves as modeled. Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The bufkit temp soundings for KORE look below freezing for most of the precipitation. That bodes well for out here. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I guess that is the better question. Tuesday? Once we have the track narrowed down, so probably Tuesday...but you can get an idea of what the profile looks like at any point. It's a good idea to look now if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sigh... just waiting for the inevitable slide NW... What gives you that idea? NAM coming into agreement with the others. I wouldn't have much faith in it 84 hours out yesterday, but now that we're inside 60 hours, and moving towards a consensus.... GFS will likely at a minimum hold serve, but considering the GEFS were colder, I'd wager colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't think Ray should be left out of dicsussion either, since he's in ne mass which is closer to CAD source and also had colder mid level temps. Of course that's if the low behaves as modeled. Ray will get snow and/or rain. Rarely is icing a problem on the interior CP. It goes from thumping snows to the first ping then rain at 33.1 just fifteen minutes later in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe Kevin can get 5 more days w/o power. He purposefully doesn't pay his bill so he can camp out in a freezing house Hope you get slammed with 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Who cares LOL Well he won't if it goes further nw, but he has a few things going his way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ray will get snow and/or rain. Rarely is icing a problem on the interior CP. It goes from thumping snows to the first ping then rain at 33.1 just fifteen minutes later in these setups. I know, I was referring to snow or at least starting as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah the CAD isn't the question I don't think...it's the mid levels. Hopefully two things can happen. First is to have the confluence stronger and south. Second, is to have the srn vort try to gain longitude before moving northers in advance of that big ULL in the Midwest. Not expecting much snow here but pingers and a glaze seems like a decent bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOL Well he won't if it goes further nw, but he has a few things going in way. Yeah in some respects the temp profile across the region...especially on that nam run....has a bit of swfe look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Man, the NAM nearly holds the snow line in northern MA for a bulk of this storm..it halts between 12z and 15z as the mid-level flow at 850mb is turning more easterly...basically cold conveyor belt beginning to feed into it. Should be interesting to see the other guidance as the NAM had been the warmest by far. This run harkens back to Dec 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Congrats Socks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It's a shame that dam ULL to the west is there. This would be a good thump for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This run harkens back to Dec 2007. Which storm? That Sunday surprise 6-10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What gives you that idea? NAM coming into agreement with the others. I wouldn't have much faith in it 84 hours out yesterday, but now that we're inside 60 hours, and moving towards a consensus.... GFS will likely at a minimum hold serve, but considering the GEFS were colder, I'd wager colder. Well, I hope you're right. Walking the tightrope...still, if I get an inch or 2, that will be ok, because it might stick around for more than a day or so... Just seems like several of this season's events have been magically tugged NW. Lucy/football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 we need an icestorm to add to the epic 12 months of extremes we already had thats all we were missing i think Not expecting much snow here but pingers and a glaze seems like a decent bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Somehow Pete will jackpot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 First guess: aug-con-GC: 4-8. Will to Nate to Dave:! 4-6, Kevin: 3-5 with head welts from the pelting, ray: 3-6. BOS north shore:3-4, BOS south shore: 1-2, BOS proper: 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah in some respects the temp profile across the region...especially on that nam run....has a bit of swfe look I would think with that high, he's looking at more nne flow, so if the mid levels stay cold enough and the low doesn't go over your house, he could do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Never seen that one before. Look how willingly he accepts his fate. That could be him in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Congrats Socks lol, I will take it and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well, I hope you're right. Walking the tightrope...still, if I get an inch or 2, that will be ok, because it might stick around for more than a day or so... Just seems like several of this season's events have been magically tugged NW. Lucy/football I hear ya. But I think you will be pleasantly surprised. It'll be white up north for me too, but still not sold on the Merrimack Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I would think with that high, he's looking at more nne flow, so if the mid levels stay cold enough and the low doesn't go over your house, he could do ok. Yeah I don't really think he's in a bad spot. The who cares was just in reference to his posts earlier today. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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