dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 One feature that is sticking out like a sore thumb on the 00z NAM vs 18z is the vortex north of Maine...its much more potent/further south than the 18z run. The 528dm height line is probably 150 miles south of the 18z position just north of Vim Toot's house. edit: this is comparing 42h on the 00z nam to 48h on the 18z run Yeah, Its colder up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 One feature that is sticking out like a sore thumb on the 00z NAM vs 18z is the vortex north of Maine...its much more potent/further south than the 18z run. The 528dm height line is probably 150 miles south of the 18z position just north of Vim Toot's house. edit: this is comparing 42h on the 00z nam to 48h on the 18z run Looks like it's going to help deflect this a bit further SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like it's going to help deflect this a bit further SE? It should, Seeing it was the furthest model NW and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 looks like nyc might even start as snow on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 One feature that is sticking out like a sore thumb on the 00z NAM vs 18z is the vortex north of Maine...its much more potent/further south than the 18z run. The 528dm height line is probably 150 miles south of the 18z position just north of Vim Toot's house. edit: this is comparing 42h on the 00z nam to 48h on the 18z run ULL over the GL is further S & W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Steve lecturing us on leaving emotion out strikes me as having JUST a tinge of irony...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 looks like nyc might even start as snow on the nam It's definitely cold at the start. At 21z Wednesday its about to start at BWI and even they look close to snow but too warm I think (Also surface temps >40). This could be a good run for interior sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I just checked the soundings...it does start as snow near NYC...right in the city, the lowest levels might be too torched...but its close. Def northern NJ away from the water starts as snow on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 To my eyes the bulk of the precip seems a bit south of where it was earlier... edit... south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lol...the nams finally catching on so now the euro at 00z will probably rain to Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like it starts between 06z and 09z on the NAM for most of us...I think it will change us over too, but it definitely is colder than the torched 18z run which didn't have much snow at all on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nam is a lot of ice and/or sleet for a big chunk of real estate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Weird kink in the 0C at hour 54 over Lake Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Faster on the nam...gfs/euro were closer to a 12z start but nam says between 6z and 9z...I hope its too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nam is a lot of ice and/or sleet for a big chunk of real estate Well down into PA NYS etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 NAM is maybe 3-4 hours of snow for ORH and then its just flipping to sleet at 12z...its pretty cold below the mid-level warm layer...it has a very good CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 NAM is maybe 3-4 hours of snow for ORH and then its just flipping to sleet at 12z...its pretty cold below the mid-level warm layer...it has a very good CAD signature. Looks nice for Mt. Socks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Favor the cold solutions. I know there's some uncertainty, but I think this one is shearish and further S&E. Will up into SNH will do well, and maybe west too...Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lol i love looking at these weenie snow maps http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE066.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Man, the NAM nearly holds the snow line in northern MA for a bulk of this storm..it halts between 12z and 15z as the mid-level flow at 850mb is turning more easterly...basically cold conveyor belt beginning to feed into it. Should be interesting to see the other guidance as the NAM had been the warmest by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Little SE of 18z, Colder, And we stay mostly snow up this way, 540 thickness was in central maine @18z, Its just to my south @0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Favor the cold solutions. I know there's some uncertainty, but I think this one is shearish and further S&E. Will up into SNH will do well, and maybe west too...Ray? Yeah I think best call right now is a 3-6 advisory event N+W of 495 (lol)...maybe 2-3" for TOL. Maybe a thin stripe of warning 6-7" in the elevations near Socks? Could change obviously and I wouldn't throw this forecast on tv...but that would be my guess at 60 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Would have been nice to get a wee bit of blocking to slow that sucker down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sam's parent's house in EEN looks to be nicely situated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Little SE of 18z, Colder, And we stay mostly snow up this way, 540 thickness was in central maine @18z, Its just to my south @0z Nice crush job up here. Glad to see NAM shift towards the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like it starts between 06z and 09z on the NAM for most of us...I think it will change us over too, but it definitely is colder than the torched 18z run which didn't have much snow at all on the front end. Rindge gets smoked on this run...0C line looks as if it's around KFIT for the height of the storm. I am starting to have faith that the Monadnocks can pull out at least an advisory event, maybe warning criteria. I wonder if QPF could be overmodeled however with the mid-levels being a bit disorganized compared to a classic CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice crush job up here. Glad to see NAM shift towards the other guidance. Yeah, looks nice for SE Maine up to Sunday Riverish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Man, the NAM nearly holds the snow line in northern MA for a bulk of this storm..it halts between 12z and 15z as the mid-level flow at 850mb is turning more easterly...basically cold conveyor belt beginning to feed into it. Should be interesting to see the other guidance as the NAM had been the warmest by far. It weakened the vortmax some and was further se with it as it passed SNE- closer to what the globals (aside from the ukmet I think) showed today. I think that'll be key as a more amped vort probably hurts more than helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice crush job up here. Glad to see NAM shift towards the other guidance. Looks like close to 1.00" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice interior mess on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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