Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 ummm just turned the outside light on and light snow is falling wasnt expecting that Sorry you missed... Phil and I and Scott did mention this yesterday and the day before, and the day before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Have been out of the loop most of the day but just browsing on my phone has provided some quality entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i'm just guessing here...but thinking some of the pessimism might be from the feet upon feet of snow that has fallen in SNE thus far this winter season. LOL. That's putting emotion in science though, every setup is unique, we are in the midst of a radical pattern change, perhaps a good idea to not totally ignore signals as some have done. Not saying anything much happens for you or I, but this is not a SWFE as modeled either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i thought it was more of a cape cod thing not here Sorry you missed... Phil and I and Scott did mention this yesterday and the day before, and the day before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That's putting emotion in science though, every setup is unique, we are in the midst of a radical pattern change, perhaps a good idea to not totally ignore signals as some have done. Not saying anything much happens for you or I, but this is not a SWFE as modeled either. yeah...i don't know...i think most are staying pretty level headed. if anything, the recent run of bad luck has probably helped create some good objective thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 yeah...i don't know...i think most are staying pretty level headed. if anything, the recent run of bad luck has probably helped create some good objective thinking. The Mets on here have been fantastic and spot on. I just do not get the extreme negativity by some long timers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Pretty decent convection downstream of the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i could probably watch that .gif on loop all night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 whdh going all rain with highs approaching 50 obviously expecting it to trend warmer, wbz has mostly rain with snow possible inland. I'd say BOX probably is the most optimistic of all as far as snow in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well despite the SREF mean ticking ever so slightly warmer, the snow probs went way up...so that suggests that maybe only a few members are skewing the mean and that many have significant snow falling over the interior of SNE...CNE is still looking the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i thought it was more of a cape cod thing not here There was spotty mositure drifting across upstate NY earlier. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lol....love the 12+ probs showing a stripe of 12+ from Hubbdave to Dom to snowNH. Too bad its an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I like the SREFs on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well despite the SREF mean ticking ever so slightly warmer, the snow probs went way up...so that suggests that maybe only a few members are skewing the mean and that many have significant snow falling over the interior of SNE...CNE is still looking the best Is that a glitch? the 12+ probability being greater than the 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 yeah...i don't know...i think most are staying pretty level headed. if anything, the recent run of bad luck has probably helped create some good objective thinking. Not sure I agree here ... I don't think it is very objective to ignore positives in lieu of wanton abuse lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Is that a glitch? the 12+ probability being greater than the 8+ Yeah its an error...it does that on some frames. I really only pay attention to the 1+ and 4+ anyway. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ok, John....we'll see. Care to make a wager... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well despite the SREF mean ticking ever so slightly warmer, the snow probs went way up...so that suggests that maybe only a few members are skewing the mean and that many have significant snow falling over the interior of SNE...CNE is still looking the best love that 12+. That could be a signal. don't tell SnowNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah its an error...it does that on some frames. I really only pay attention to the 1+ and 4+ anyway. - i wonder if this is your oddball NAM run that gives someone like 10 to 12" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 looks alot better so far so it might be i wonder if this is your oddball NAM run that gives someone like 10 to 12" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nam is definitely east at 33, we'll see how far east it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i wonder if this is your oddball NAM run that gives someone like 10 to 12" LOL That's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 whdh going all rain with highs approaching 50 obviously expecting it to trend warmer, wbz has mostly rain with snow possible inland. I'd say BOX probably is the most optimistic of all as far as snow in sne. We might not come within 15 degrees of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Has anyone looked at the RUC or HRRR? Those can probably provide very valuable insight at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nam is definitely east at 33, we'll see how far east it goes. With an extra weenie of cold at 36...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Actually a pretty good thump event. This time you guys actually want the northern stream further west so it stays out of the picture. Also root for the southern vortex to keep it's definition, if it gets sheared apart then dynamics won't be as good for the front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That's 1 1 what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 We might not come within 15 degrees of that. lol...whdh is always playing the extreme whether its the snowy or warm one. With an extra weenie of cold at 36...lol Compare 12z at 36hr to 00z at 36hr...its playing catch-up with the EC/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 1 what? 1 of ORHWxmans 3 things he think would happen 1. The NAM will have a run between now and tomorrow that gives most of SNE 8-10" of snow. 2. Euro will keep oscillating between colder and warmer in the mid-levels, but gradually be trending warmer. 3. The GFS will show 40F and rain for you at some point when the Euro and other models have 29F and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 One feature that is sticking out like a sore thumb on the 00z NAM vs 18z is the vortex north of Maine...its much more potent/further south than the 18z run. The 528dm height line is probably 150 miles south of the 18z position just north of Vim Toot's house. edit: this is comparing 42h on the 00z nam to 48h on the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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