MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Holy crap, Eric. I just about crapped my pants. What is that gif taken from? lol ... I dunno. Scooter posted it this morning and wanted it 'shopped. He didn't go to bed, did he?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ring around the moon right now...probably from Kev's 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lol ... I dunno. Scooter posted it this morning and wanted it 'shopped. He didn't go to bed, did he?? Don't know. Check with Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lol ... I dunno. Scooter posted it this morning and wanted it 'shopped. He didn't go to bed, did he?? LOL, that is the best yet. OMG. Dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like many places in sne will at least see some flurries tonight, parts of the south coast and the berks possibly a coating. looks like Pete should be into some flakage momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOL, that is the best yet. OMG. Dying. Sadly, too large to be used as an avatar.... When can soundings be done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOL, look at Ray...my diaphragm is in knots right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The weenie abys... Tears rolling, HOF instant classic, LMFAO. I'm happy for the simple fact of having something to track. KU incoming in the next few weeks! I think Rancourt sings a better anthem...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah noirmally they are weaker lows coming out of the lakes or OH Valley...but the Dec 2008 ice storm definitely bucked that trend...pretty potent coastal low that crushed us...its also what made that event feel weird...we were gusting to like 25 knots in the middle of an ice storm...usually the winds are quite light. That typical light northerly drain. But in that storm, we had like 25 knots ripping from 020, lol. December 2008 isn't on an island either. There were two other significant icing events (> 0.50") I found in my research that featured a more classic coastal low. November 2002, though the high was stronger and anchored a lot closer to New England, and the probably more closely matched January 1994. That storm was a lot of snow for SNE, but coastal locations got a nasty ice storm out of it. I remember enough ice glazed over the snow to support your weight. Parts of South County, RI ended up with over an inch of ice. But there you had a coastal go south of SNE and the high nosing over and sustaining CAD. So not the norm, but maybe 1 of every 6 true ice storms come about that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I was speaking of on air Mets and some real jaded folks here. I will say this though, any other year if the GEFS was showing a -5 SD 850 inflow with solid -0 850 s like this, there would be some real gung Ho forecasts. This is impressive for an ENS forecast, slow mover too. If this is right its going to dump a lot closer to the coast than most think Well the GEFS are so far south, they allow for strong inflow like that. The 850 low is south of ACK. And yes in most winters, we would have been talking warning snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sadly, too large to be used as an avatar.... When can soundings be done? You can fire them up now. Are you asking when is it worth checking them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Holy hell that is fantastic!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOL, look at Ray...my diaphragm is in knots right now. LOL Perfect scrunched up face in mid laugh...look to be having a seizure on the fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Thats is some funny shat Eric....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Attitude adjustment... we're all living under the hex of Winter 2011-12... our standards are appropriate for October/November, not January. Any other winter, this SLP track and 850 contour in January... we'd be honking a solid ice/snow potential for most of SNE. I was speaking of on air Mets and some real jaded folks here. I will say this though, any other year if the GEFS was showing a -5 SD 850 inflow with solid -0 850 s like this, there would be some real gung Ho forecasts. This is impressive for an ENS forecast, slow mover too. If this is right its going to dump a lot closer to the coast than most think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 December 2008 isn't on an island either. There were two other significant icing events (> 0.50") I found in my research that featured a more classic coastal low. November 2002, though the high was stronger and anchored a lot closer to New England, and the probably more closely matched January 1994. That storm was a lot of snow for SNE, but coastal locations got a nasty ice storm out of it. I remember enough ice glazed over the snow to support your weight. Parts of South County, RI ended up with over an inch of ice. But there you had a coastal go south of SNE and the high nosing over and sustaining CAD. So not the norm, but maybe 1 of every 6 true ice storms come about that way. I was living in SRI South County, how's heavy rain and 9 degrees ? Best ice storm of my life but truly a bummer to rain at 9 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I was living in SRI South County, how's heavy rain and 9 degrees ? Best ice storm of my life but truly a bummer to rain at 9 degrees. Yeah, pretty good parent low tucked up into the eastern Great Lakes. PVD ended up around +2 at 850 during the icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You can fire them up now. Are you asking when is it worth checking them? I guess that is the better question. Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You are something else Eric! Can you slow it down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If the antecedent air mass was better, I'd be hitting this event really hard. But its killing us in this setup. However, there is still a pretty good singal for frozen even with this putrid air mass. The high location and strength is almost identical to the Dec 2008 ice storm...so if the mid-levels end up warmer, there is definitely a threat for ice. That said, this could still end up snowier. Based on what... ? Philosophy: The idea that the runs have been steadily colder in the antecedent environment, doing so with real physical marker that suggests it should, has just as much merit as looking at a snap shot of the model blend and seeing boundary layer troubles. Not you per se, but I was sneaking reads of post after post at work that was just that. If its me, I take my chances with trend any day. I'm at least 50% confident and about ready to pull the trigger and go to 75%, which is pretty darn good one should think for 4 days out andhaving persistence notwithstanding. There is more than a mere palpable vibe going on around here that the says people are ~ 10%, and there's really little if any justification for that degree of cold weather-type pessimism quite frankly. This isn't directed at Will, per se, but is a general statement: People, please take your head out of your asses? Lord knows I've deeply embedded my own from time to time but there are a lot of obvious flags flapping right now that seem strategically ignored to justify this constent opining and it's nonesense. Jesus. Okay, okay, so I just had a meltdown I guess. Back on track ... the AO has fallen some 3 Standard Deviations in the last 2.5 weeks. This is being ignored/neglected. It is no accident that the Canadian shield is filling nearly brim with -15 to -40C 850mb air ...even in the Euro wonder-boy model this is true. We have a polar high strengthening toward N Maine during the onset of that, and as we get closer and closer....it thus makes perfect sense that the 900mb is showing ever more tendecies of ageostrophic flow and there isn't a very strong valid reason to see that getting less giving these synoptic markers. I'm leaning/ see this as snow N of the Mass Pike and mix from HFD -PVD to the pike, with dice roll farther S and BOS wild card as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Other years it used to snow..so you just forecast based on persistence. This year it doesn't snow..so why would anyone forecast anything but a warmer solution and rain? Best opportunity for decent snow for many since Thanksgiving storm. Don't you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Based on what... ? Philosophy: The idea that the runs have been steadily colder in the antecedent environment, doing so with real physical marker that suggests it should, has just as much merit as looking at a snap shot of the model blend and seeing boundary layer troubles. Not you per se, but I was sneaking reads of post after post at work that was just that. If its me, I take my chances with trend any day. I'm at least 50% confident and about ready to pull the trigger and go to 75%, which is pretty darn good one should think for 4 days out andhaving persistence notwithstanding. There is more than a mere palpable vibe going on around here that the says people are ~ 10%, and there's really little if any justification for that degree of cold weather-type pessimism quite frankly. This isn't directed at Will, per se, but is a general statement: People, please take your head out of your asses? Lord knows I've deeply embedded my own from time to time but there are a lot of obvious flags flapping right now that seem strategically ignored to justify this constent opining and it's nonesense. Jesus. Okay, okay, so I just had a meltdown I guess. Back on track ... the AO has fallen some 3 Standard Deviations in the last 2.5 weeks. This is being ignored/neglected. It is no accident that the Canadian shield is filling nearly brim with -15 to -40C 850mb air ...even in the Euro wonder-boy model this is true. We have a polar high strengthening toward N Maine during the onset of that, and as we get closer and closer....it thus makes perfect sense that the 900mb is showing ever more tendecies of ageostrophic flow and there isn't a very strong valid reason to see that getting less giving these synoptic markers. I'm leaning/ see this as snow N of the Mass Pike and mix from HFD -PVD to the pike, with dice roll farther S and BOS wild card as usual. i'm just guessing here...but thinking some of the pessimism might be from the feet upon feet of snow that has fallen in SNE thus far this winter season. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 anyone have the SREFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Based on what... ? Philosophy: The idea that the runs have been steadily colder in the antecedent environment, doing so with real physical marker that suggests it should, has just as much merit as looking at a snap shot of the model blend and seeing boundary layer troubles. Not you per se, but I was sneaking reads of post after post at work that was just that. If its me, I take my chances with trend any day. I'm at least 50% confident and about ready to pull the trigger and go to 75%, which is pretty darn good one should think for 4 days out andhaving persistence notwithstanding. There is more than a mere palpable vibe going on around here that the says people are ~ 10%, and there's really little if any justification for that degree of cold weather-type pessimism quite frankly. This isn't directed at Will, per se, but is a general statement: People, please take your head out of your asses? Lord knows I've deeply embedded my own from time to time but there are a lot of obvious flags flapping right now that seem strategically ignored to justify this constent opining and it's nonesense. Jesus. Okay, okay, so I just had a meltdown I guess. Back on track ... the AO has fallen some 3 Standard Deviations in the last 2.5 weeks. This is being ignored/neglected. It is no accident that the Canadian shield is filling nearly brim with -15 to -40C 850mb air ...even in the Euro wonder-boy model this is true. We have a polar high strengthening toward N Maine during the onset of that, and as we get closer and closer....it thus makes perfect sense that the 900mb is showing ever more tendecies of ageostrophic flow and there isn't a very strong valid reason to see that getting less giving these synoptic markers. I'm leaning/ see this as snow N of the Mass Pike and mix from HFD -PVD to the pike, with dice roll farther S and BOS wild card as usual. LOL ....but thanks for the call. I hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Probably still out of there range, But looks like 21z srefs takes thurs low over ack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 ummm just turned the outside light on and light snow is falling wasnt expecting that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 SREFs look slightly warmer than 15z...but not much change. They have a monster spread though in 850 temps right over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Tip, not all of us ignored the precipitous AO drop and yes with ENS support this is wintery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i'm just guessing here...but thinking some of the pessimism might be from the feet upon feet of snow that has fallen in SNE thus far this winter season. LOL. Oh my god I fell off my chair when I read this. LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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