Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hopefully, things have changed. Kelly LeBrock has: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What did Tim look at? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This shows how much colder most of the GFS ensembles are than the OP run...that would def be a snow event for a majority of SNE if those turned out correct. I think they are too cold however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GFS..garbage. Assume the opposite everytime and you'll get your final solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What did Tim look at? LOL. The wunderground weenie maps gave ORH like 10" of snow...maybe add some weenie ratios to that? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GFS..garbage. Assume the opposite everytime and you'll get your final solution Reverse psychology? Where's the blizz from yesteryear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Reverse psychology? Where's the blizz from yesteryear? Other years it used to snow..so you just forecast based on persistence. This year it doesn't snow..so why would anyone forecast anything but a warmer solution and rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Kelly LeBrock has: Almost lost my dinner.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Kelly LeBrock has: Looks like she's playhing a Manniquen again. I guess she's not in your avatar rotation these days. Hope you get some snow this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The wunderground weenie maps gave ORH like 10" of snow...maybe add some weenie ratios to that? lol Back in the realm of reality--what type of qpf is this giving? I can't see anything approaching double digits with the movement of this. Maybe I'm off. Rather, probably I'm off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Back in the realm of reality--what type of qpf is this giving? I can't see anything approaching double digits with the movement of this. Maybe I'm off. Rather, probably I'm off. Max qpf looks to be in the 0.75" to 1.00" range. I'd probably lean on the lower end of that spectrum at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Max qpf looks to be in the 0.75" to 1.00" range. I'd probably lean on the lower end of that spectrum at the moment. Thanks--I had it pegged as lower. Hope springs eternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I do not know if Tim Kelly only looks at op models as his tweet suggests but this is a strong cad signal for interior areas. You guys have a decent shot at accumulating frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I do think it is funny how gun shy and cautious everyone is. This is not going over HFD or BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Thanks--I had it pegged as lower. Hope springs eternal. Of course you did. You should be getting ready to ramp up to full QPF hysteria, potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I do think it is funny how gun shy and cautious everyone is. This is not going over HFD or BOS. If the antecedent air mass was better, I'd be hitting this event really hard. But its killing us in this setup. However, there is still a pretty good singal for frozen even with this putrid air mass. The high location and strength is almost identical to the Dec 2008 ice storm...so if the mid-levels end up warmer, there is definitely a threat for ice. That said, this could still end up snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I do think it is funny how gun shy and cautious everyone is. This is not going over HFD or BOS. I don't understand your statement, Steve. There is no reason right now to be bullish for snow in SNE. Now ice...that's different....we actually have a nice high and CAD signature for the interior, but that will not help the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't understand your statement, Steve. There is no reason right now to be bullish for snow in SNE. Now ice...that's different....we actually have a nice high and CAD signature for the interior, but that will not help the mid levels. I was speaking of on air Mets and some real jaded folks here. I will say this though, any other year if the GEFS was showing a -5 SD 850 inflow with solid -0 850 s like this, there would be some real gung Ho forecasts. This is impressive for an ENS forecast, slow mover too. If this is right its going to dump a lot closer to the coast than most think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 <p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 dying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hope you get some snow this week! It would be nice. Not counting on anything, just watching the discussions, and taking it all in at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It would be nice. Not counting on anything, just watching the discussions, and taking it all in at this point. The CAD seems to be strong enough that a lot of places could start off as snow even if they do go to rain. Heck and hour or two of moderate snow before a flip would be a win at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Holy crap, Eric. I just about crapped my pants. What is that gif taken from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I do not see any good reason to buck the season long trend yet, perhaps later next week. Berkshires1500 up 2-4 then ice greens and whites jackpot 4-8......northern orh above 1k a little front end snow followed by brief ice to rain. Everywhere else, water. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The CAD seems to be strong enough that a lot of places could start off as snow even if they do go to rain. Heck and hour or two of moderate snow before a flip would be a win at this point. I would take anything at this point, even as much as I despise the snow to rain events. Especially since this was looking like a rainer for my area not too long ago, I'd take a 1/2" of wet snow, roll around in it, and hold tight for the next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Eric, best ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't understand your statement, Steve. There is no reason right now to be bullish for snow in SNE. Now ice...that's different....we actually have a nice high and CAD signature for the interior, but that will not help the mid levels. Seriously...dnt get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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