moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 NWS was fairly bullish in the 12/23 event if that is what you are referring to. They had advisories out for north of the pike elevated areas. They had to take them down once the event started and it was apparent it wouldn't snow enough to meet advisory criteria. I can't even tell you if that was the event, Will. But, advisories notwtihstanding, their AFD and forecasts were essentially saying 'stick a fork in it', though there was a fair amount of expectation in these threads that was keeping hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The 18z GFS develops a ligit TC off Florida and moves it up to ESE of the Carolinas near the end of frames... get ripped - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Whats your total minus october? ITs certainly less than 10 inches of snow through 6 weeks of met winter in the berkshires, thats pretty bad. Where have you been skiing I see MRG is closed again in the dead of winter, hoping to reopen this weekend, snowmobile trails all closed in the green state, no snow on the ground where you live. Tough times, but hopefully things improve in Feb! You can try to break my spirit but you will fail. I never lose faith in Ullr and he will see me through this. Snow in the forecast here but I can understand your bitterness as you aren't likely to see more than a mangled flake or two the rest of the winter. I will remember your hurtful words when we play golf this spring. I will use them as a motivational tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You can try to break my spirit but you will fail. I never lose faith in Ullr and he will see me through this. Snow in the forecast here but I can understand your bitterness as you aren't likely to see more than a mangled flake or two the rest of the winter. I will remember your hurtful words when we play golf this spring. I will use them as a motivational tool. Enjoy the snow thur-sat Pete, should be a very winter like 4 days up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah--I'm really intrigued by the Friday event. Meanwhile, getting really bummed that my tropics trip (leasve next Friday).is coming up just as winter is finally getting going. I ont' mind if my flight get's canceled. As a general rule I never fly to anywhere south of here. Go forth to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I like areas just away from the coast in NE mass in this scenario (for a nice suprise) with the nose of HPressure and WAA thump. I think there is potential for quite a nice thumping when preceip arrives and the qpf dump begins from 7-11 am. i wouldn't be shocked for areas like andover/tewksbury/ georgetown/boxford to get a 3-6 inch dump BECAUSE the precip will likely be heavy and 3 hours of heavy snow can yield 3-6 inches. not sure if the BL will torch over by hamilton to peabody and saugus but nw of those towns i think 2-4 is likely in this scenario with N ageo flow and evaporational cooling then the high VV's thur am ....why not? we said we need to thread a needle and walla thur has a neg NA0 of -.5 but more importantly IMO is it will have fallen about 2.0 in the next 48 hours. wouldn't be suprised if the 2-4 inches covered parts of RI and the sharon/easton /canton triangle as well before a flip to rain IF the precip is heavy from 7-9 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I like areas just away from the coast in NE mass in this scenario (for a nice suprise) with the nose of HPressure and WAA thump. I think there is potential for quite a nice thumping when preceip arrives and the qpf dump begins from 7-11 am. i wouldn't be shocked for areas like andover/tewksbury/ georgetown/boxford to get a 3-6 inch dump BECAUSE the precip will likely be heavy and 3 hours of heavy snow can yield 3-6 inches. not sure if the BL will torch over by hamilton to peabody and saugus but nw of those towns i think 2-4 is likely in this scenario with N ageo flow and evaporational cooling then the high VV's thur am ....why not? we said we need to thread a needle and walla thur has a neg NA0 of -.5 but more importantly IMO is it will have fallen about 2.0 in the next 48 hours. wouldn't be suprised if the 2-4 inches covered parts of RI and the sharon/easton /canton triangle as well before a flip to rain IF the precip is heavy from 7-9 am The snow/sleet line is going to be to the pike roughly by 7am or even slightly north...so it has to rip really hard between about 6-9am for NE MA to cash in...they might do it, but its close. There will def be a CF setting up somewhere over E MA...probably close to Ray...but its hard to say just how far west it will be. I think areas east of I-95 are going to torch pretty quickly in the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I moved your ski posts to the ski thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'll PM you Chris. Our plans aren't set. We're going to the snow though Stowe is high on the list. We may be at Whiteface Thursday and then VT Fri/Sat. I have to work sat. Drat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The 18z GFS develops a ligit TC off Florida and moves it up to ESE of the Carolinas near the end of frames... get ripped - I know...its ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What the odds, like last winter this creeps a little more SE as we get closer to the event, or are we pretty much in Lock it up mode???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 it could creep either way now 0z should be our answer on what is going to happen.. Last winter and this winter are total opposites What the odds, like last winter this creeps a little more SE as we get closer to the event, or are we pretty much in Lock it up mode???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What the odds, like last winter this creeps a little more SE as we get closer to the event, or are we pretty much in Lock it up mode???? We are far from lock it up mode...even minor trends could change the forecast a lot over a lot of MA and even into CT...have that cold wedge hold a little tougher and most will see more snow than is currently forecast and perhaps extend an advisory for snow down into N CT...have it trend warmer, and the snow could be pretty minimal with an inch or less over a lot of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think this is very funny. ...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... .A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL TO DETERMINING WHICH TYPE OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION AND LESS ICE ACCUMULATION. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 We are far from lock it up mode...even minor trends could change the forecast a lot over a lot of MA and even into CT...have that cold wedge hold a little tougher and most will see more snow than is currently forecast and perhaps extend an advisory for snow down into N CT...have it trend warmer, and the snow could be pretty minimal with an inch or less over a lot of MA. I still don't feel safe in the Monadnocks given what's transpired this winter...we'll start as snow with CAD east of the Appalachians but will pesky warm layers change us to sleet/freezing rain quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I still don't feel safe in the Monadnocks given what's transpired this winter...we'll start as snow with CAD east of the Appalachians but will pesky warm layers change us to sleet/freezing rain quickly? lol. You're scarred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think this is very funny. ...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... .A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL TO DETERMINING WHICH TYPE OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION AND LESS ICE ACCUMULATION. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION. ALB's discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think this is very funny. ...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... .A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL TO DETERMINING WHICH TYPE OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION AND LESS ICE ACCUMULATION. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION. mind ... blown ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I like areas just away from the coast in NE mass in this scenario (for a nice suprise) with the nose of HPressure and WAA thump. I think there is potential for quite a nice thumping when preceip arrives and the qpf dump begins from 7-11 am. i wouldn't be shocked for areas like andover/tewksbury/ georgetown/boxford to get a 3-6 inch dump BECAUSE the precip will likely be heavy and 3 hours of heavy snow can yield 3-6 inches. not sure if the BL will torch over by hamilton to peabody and saugus but nw of those towns i think 2-4 is likely in this scenario with N ageo flow and evaporational cooling then the high VV's thur am ....why not? we said we need to thread a needle and walla thur has a neg NA0 of -.5 but more importantly IMO is it will have fallen about 2.0 in the next 48 hours. wouldn't be suprised if the 2-4 inches covered parts of RI and the sharon/easton /canton triangle as well before a flip to rain IF the precip is heavy from 7-9 am Hey, stranger. Where are you these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wrapped-up cutoff low looks sick on WV: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I moved your ski posts to the ski thread. Thanks and sorry about that Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 ALB's discussion? BOX's watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The loop is awesome!!! Wrapped-up cutoff low looks sick on WV: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I still don't feel safe in the Monadnocks given what's transpired this winter...we'll start as snow with CAD east of the Appalachians but will pesky warm layers change us to sleet/freezing rain quickly? I'd just keep expectations fairly low in the snow department until we are closer...and focus more on the winter wx aspect as a whole. I'm going to expect lots of ZR/IP...and if it trends snowier, that's great. At the very least, its nice for the short range guidance to be relevant again. We've had little reason to track events inside of 72 hours this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 How often I had to see this map when I lived on the mid-Coast. Would bring tears to my eyes. Yup. "Mixing will hold accumulations down along the coast." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'd just keep expectations fairly low in the snow department until we are closer...and focus more on the winter wx aspect as a whole. I'm going to expect lots of ZR/IP...and if it trends snowier, that's great. At the very least, its nice for the short range guidance to be relevant again. We've had little reason to track events inside of 72 hours this winter. Sorry to ask this, but do you think there is any concern for IP in Bolton Valley VT? BTV says 3-6" with higher in elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Generous map from Box Aside of the less than 1" zone pretty much the outline I've felt for the last two days for the more significant frozen precip. Ray may be on the fence, by Will and MRG and everyone in between are good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 To be fair, I'd be going to AK regardless. My winter is going just fine Jerry. Skiing a lot and I've been ice fishing again which I haven't done much of in the last few years. With a little luck I should be 40+" for the season by the weekend.It hasn't been as snowy as I'd like but there's a lot of winter left and I don't give up easily.......and there is always the siren call of AK. Pete, make sure you go here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I feel like we have seen this game before where the GFS is warm and the NAM is cooler. I guess the Euro is maybe some sort of compromise that leads toward the NAM? Idk, I'm skeptical of these winter storm watches extending so far south. BOX is certainly bullish..guess we will see what 00z has to offer. I'll be in MHT visiting a friend..hope to see some sort of frozen precipitation. Even if it's just some IP/ZR that'd be better than down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wrapped-up cutoff low looks sick on WV: whenever I see lows that wrapped on the w/v I immediately think of some of Ray's best meltdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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