Mr Torchey Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice little snow event with that follow up energy from philly north up into the hv! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Not that it will have a big snow impact, but the cold air tuck behind storm 1 is kind of intriguing. That could really ice things up across ern mass and even BOS, Thursday evening. There could be a lot of FZDZ around Thursday night...could def be pretty hazardous and something to watch as many people might think they are out of the woods once the main storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 there might be some truth to that...it seems like even here accidents are ridiculous for the first somewhat significant snow. It doesn't matter that you average a lot...it seems like people forget how to drive in the snow during the summer. I don't actually disagree if they want to alarm the public...but I always thought they stick to their definitions. I know Walt Drag used to be big on public impact..even if the forecast did not meet requirements, and I agree with his thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 There could be a lot of FZDZ around Thursday night...could def be pretty hazardous and something to watch as many people might think they are out of the woods once the main storm passes. It looks classic for that. LOL, I'm rooting for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't actually disagree if they want to alarm the public...but I always thought they stick to their definitions. I know Walt Drag used to be big on public impact..even if the forecast did not meet requirements, and I agree with his thinking. i've seen winter storm warnings for like 1/4" of ice and 3-6" or 4-8" of snow...but this one seems pretty marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Since when is that worth a winter storm watch??? I think they are highlighting the potential for a colder scenario. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 435 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012 ...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... .A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL TO DETERMINING WHICH TYPE OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION AND LESS ICE ACCUMULATION. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i've seen winter storm warnings for like 1/4" of ice and 3-6" or 4-8" of snow...but this one seems pretty marginal. I agree it is, which might go into the belief of trying to generate a little more awareness to the public, but I'm not a NWS employee so I could not say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like a toaster bath here...we receive about .25"-.3" QPF as snow before the 0C isotherm at 850mb surges to Canada at 54 hours. Gets very warm eventually. It looked like to me the GFS gave you about 4"..you are just flipping over at 45 hours and have over 0.40" of liquid eq. But regardless, I'd be surprised if you went above freezing in this event. I'd probably be going advisory snow there followed by IP/ZR...maybe you briefly go to a 33F light rain before falling back into the 20s with the cold tuck at the sfc behind the storm. Should be a pretty good wintry event there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It looked like to me the GFS gave you about 4"..you are just flipping over at 45 hours and have over 0.40" of liquid eq. But regardless, I'd be surprised if you went above freezing in this event. I'd probably be going advisory snow there followed by IP/ZR...maybe you briefly go to a 33F light rain before falling back into the 20s with the cold tuck at the sfc behind the storm. Should be a pretty good wintry event there. If he goes above freezing, then this low went really far north. Snow to ice...it's going to be a slippery walk in those Hanes..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah, looks nice N of route 2. Probably 1-2" then PL. I think 12z Thursday on the nam looks like sleet for ORH. This run is sweet for southern/central NH. I'm expecting a couple inches to be reduced to 1.5" of sleet. Beats mostly wet, though. Not liking that the NAM went a bit warmer at 18z. Warm tongues aren't good on this particular type of model. Shouldn't you be running some HRR and RUC models or something? j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Once a lifetime winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If he goes above freezing, then this low went really far north. Snow to ice...it's going to be a slippery walk in those Hanes..lol. Yeah I'm still leaving open the scenario that the sfc low tracks over CT or into E MA...but my guess is it ends up SE of that...even when it tracks as close as I-95, its very hard to get above freezing here and northward into the Monadnocks. Sometimes we sneak to 33F as the low level inversion mixes out behind the storm...but in this case, anything like that would be really shortlived or nonexistent because we get the cold tuck at the sfc from the north rather than strong westerly winds behind the storm thanks to the primary low rotting over the lakes to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Since 75 days have passed without anything else??? Ugh we have so many warnings and watches and advisories. No one knows what any of them mean including myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah I'm still leaving open the scenario that the sfc low tracks over CT or into E MA...but my guess is it ends up SE of that...even when it tracks as close as I-95, its very hard to get above freezing here and northward into the Monadnocks. Sometimes we sneak to 33F as the low level inversion mixes out behind the storm...but in this case, anything like that would be really shortlived or nonexistent because we get the cold tuck at the sfc from the north rather than strong westerly winds behind the storm thanks to the primary low rotting over the lakes to our west. Yeah that's what I mean..it would be a disaster. My guess is over the Cape as well, and just east of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slknight Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Man, I hate being on the coast this time of year. Nothing worse than seeing a WSW that covers virtually the entire forecast area, with the exception of a small ribbon comprised of the eastern half of the coastal counties. The ultimate tease. I guess I'll just be thankful that I'm in the game for any frozen at this point, given the fact that this was a soaking cutter just a couple days ago. Yep. Living east of 95/Route 1 sucks this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It looked like to me the GFS gave you about 4"..you are just flipping over at 45 hours and have over 0.40" of liquid eq. But regardless, I'd be surprised if you went above freezing in this event. I'd probably be going advisory snow there followed by IP/ZR...maybe you briefly go to a 33F light rain before falling back into the 20s with the cold tuck at the sfc behind the storm. Should be a pretty good wintry event there. It looks to me as if we might go above freezing briefly at 48 on the 18z GFS, although of course a global can't account for the elevation and damming in the Monadnocks. I don't like how the surface high moves off the coast, setting up a mild E/SE flow off warm SSTs. It would be really nice to be able to keep NE winds to be sure we don't go above at the surface. Places near the coast should easily sneak above freezing on the 18z GFS, which doesn't look as cold as the ECM sounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It looks to me as if we might go above freezing briefly at 48 on the 18z GFS, although of course a global can't account for the elevation and damming in the Monadnocks. I don't like how the surface high moves off the coast, setting up a mild E/SE flow off warm SSTs. It would be really nice to be able to keep NE winds to be sure we don't go above at the surface. Places near the coast should easily sneak above freezing on the 18z GFS, which doesn't look as cold as the ECM sounded. I don't usually look at the GFS sfc temps in CAD setups. It almost always runs too warm. I mean on the sounding here at 12z Thu, it showed zero inversion which is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 NWS in Upton seems to also be going with colder solution and CAD hanging on longer in interior sections: NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED OVER THE GFS...WHICH IS UNDER-DOING CAD AND ALSO THE STRENGTH OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE MID ATLC COASTAL PLAN. THAT SAID...THE NAM MAY BE TOO COLD ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS...SO THE DEGREE OF WARMING ALOFT AND STRENGTH OF SFC CAD ARE STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. TAKING THESE ISSUES INTO ACCOUNT...THINK THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH ICE ACCUMULATION...BUT THE COMBO OF SNOW/SLEET AND THEN SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COULD EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ORANGE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COLDER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nate, you'll always have an ageostrophic component from the NE across Rindge. Even the NAM can sometimes not get that part right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm expecting a couple inches to be reduced to 1.5" of sleet. Beats mostly wet, though. I'm planning on 1-2" followed by a thourough glazing. The valley from Greenfield up to Brattleboro is notorious for holding the cold in place in these marginal situations. I'm not the biggest fan of freezingt rain but it beats rain at 33F. Nice to at least see a WSW for all of Franklin Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 GFS looks notably better. The s/w is sharper and further east, with a stronger surface low, and at the same time pressures are higher across New England. This run markedly strengthened the northerly isallobaric flow. Also, Friday is just a little tweaking away from being a significant snow storm for western New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It looks to me as if we might go above freezing briefly at 48 on the 18z GFS, although of course a global can't account for the elevation and damming in the Monadnocks. I don't like how the surface high moves off the coast, setting up a mild E/SE flow off warm SSTs. It would be really nice to be able to keep NE winds to be sure we don't go above at the surface. Places near the coast should easily sneak above freezing on the 18z GFS, which doesn't look as cold as the ECM sounded. you live in new hampshire now not the tropics. if you have any issue its sleet not rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Will or Scott, (or any other mets) is this the type of setup where latitude is more important than elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 you live in new hampshire now not the tropics. if you have any issue its sleet not rain He has DFS. Dobbs Ferry Syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 2" of slush here followed by a little ice then tapering off as some drizzle or freezing drizzle. That's what I've been telling people that I'm thinking for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I cannot believe there is a watch for 2-4" and a trace of ice. That is north Georgia criteria right there. LOL. That might not even warrant an advisory though I know a trace of ice gets the advisory without the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Will or Scott, (or any other mets) is this the type of setup where latitude is more important than elevation? Well for snow it is. The latitude will ensure colder mid level temps, as the surface will be cold enough, away from the shoreline. For icing, the elevation probably will help. In other words, someone in lower ORH (like downtown) may be 34F, but Will could be 31F. So basically, the effects of elevation will kick in, after the mid level cold retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Generous map from Box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well for snow it is. The latitude will ensure colder mid level temps, as the surface will be cold enough, away from the shoreline. For icing, the elevation probably will help. In other words, someone in lower ORH (like downtown) may be 34F, but Will could be 31F. So basically, the effects of elevation will kick in, after the mid level cold retreats. Thanks! After the past 2 months I'll be thrilled with slop snow followed by glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This winter has gotten to me guys. I'm sorry.....I should have known that the "pattern change" was probably a falsely robust signal that has failed this year. Remember how many cold winters have a warm spell that gets truncated? This is the opposite. Futility record here we come. If you get snow/ice, enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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