CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sort of a couple of things arguing for different numbers. You have a relatively cold high trying to battle back the warmth..even up to 850mb to a point, but you have 800mb trying to torch as you move north. Probably a nice snow gradient between Will and Socks. I just don't like that warm layer. Would think someone near Dave or Socks could get some good IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If there only was a little snowpack to cool us a little. But it is the mid-levels anyway that are giving us the ol screwgie. Nah, you'll have snow..lol. It's the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That seems like a good number. Dave is a bit of a wild card. Looking at hourly soundings on bufkit, it suggests there could be an extended period of freezing rain between 12z and 17z here...but we'll have to see if it ends up more sleet. Of course, I'll hope it ends up more snow...we'll need that vortmax to trend back SE a bit...at least it did on the 18z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Not liking that the NAM went a bit warmer at 18z. Warm tongues aren't good on this particular type of model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looking at hourly soundings on bufkit, it suggests there could be an extended period of freezing rain between 12z and 17z here...but we'll have to see if it ends up more sleet. Of course, I'll hope it ends up more snow...we'll need that vortmax to trend back SE a bit...at least it did on the 18z nam. Looks wintry either way. Thinking IP or ZR could be the bigger show there, but hopefully that vortmax can go se. Preliminary guess for you is 1.7" but I feel like it's 0.5-1C away from doubling that. Gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks wintry either way. Thinking IP or ZR could be the bigger show there, but hopefully that vortmax can go se. Preliminary guess for you is 1.7" but I feel like it's 0.5-1C away from doubling that. Gonna be close. A couple inches crusted over by IP/ZR is a win for this winter, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 A couple inches crusted over by IP/ZR is a win for this winter, lol. Oh yeah no doubt. I'm jealous..lol. This is beyond ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Oh yeah no doubt. I'm jealous..lol. This is beyond ridiculous. Go into your freezer, get all the ice cubes. Put them in a baggie. Crush them with a hammer, throw them in your yard. Same deal... Jerry is hoping for 5" the rest of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I wonder if BOX issues a watch for the combined snow and ice threat. Otherwise neither one alone meets criteria http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...CHESTERFIELD... BLANDFORD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...AYER 435 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...INTERIOR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND ICE. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL COULD DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE DUE TO SLIPPERY UNTREATED SURFACES AND LOW VISIBILITY. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I figure best case scenario for here is a quick change from snow to ip to rain with a chance for all rain still possible. However considering that this was initially a cutter that was supposed to torch ski country, I consider it a win even though it will probably be mostly a fail imby. Feeling better about my ski trip in a couple weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Go into your freezer, get all the ice cubes. Put them in a baggie. Crush them with a hammer, throw them in your yard. Same deal... Jerry is hoping for 5" the rest of the winter I don't. I look forward to this time of year. This sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 http://kamala.cod.ed...wus41.KBOX.html INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...CHESTERFIELD... BLANDFORD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...AYER 435 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...INTERIOR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND ICE. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL COULD DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE DUE TO SLIPPERY UNTREATED SURFACES AND LOW VISIBILITY. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. Since when is that worth a winter storm watch??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Since when is that worth a winter storm watch??? Maybe because of timing? I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe because of timing? I don't know. This winter is so bad that they decided to use WSW criteria from the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I honestly have no clue why it's down to CT, other than icing possibilities. But even that seems marginal, there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This winter is so bad that they decided to use WSW criteria from the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This winter is so bad that they decided to use WSW criteria from the Southeast. BUF had a les warning for 4-8" last week which generally isn't the criteria, either. We ended with about 1.5" but that's beside the point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I’m probably going to regret getting involved again … but, … but I have not yet read their internal discussion, so I don’t know what their forecast philosophy is with this Watch. I could just step back and look at that polar high parked up N, and figure that we could easily get a 4-6” front end 2/hr thump before going over to cold rain and valley ice in the interior… but that’s me. Also, the 18z NAMs 500mb series has the vort max actually traveling under LI again…which is colder mid level solution. May be warmer below, but that 500mb could maybe possibly signal 00z’s run being colder over all – sometimes it does that. Point being, there is enough uncertainty that a watch can easily go to an advisory or warning with less criticism . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18z GFS looks a bit better than 12z...esp near Ray...holding that cold wedge in there pretty decently. The vortmax is southeast of the 12z run. Its not a huge change, but every little bit will help when its this marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Man, I hate being on the coast this time of year. Nothing worse than seeing a WSW that covers virtually the entire forecast area, with the exception of a small ribbon comprised of the eastern half of the coastal counties. The ultimate tease. I guess I'll just be thankful that I'm in the game for any frozen at this point, given the fact that this was a soaking cutter just a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18z GFS looks a bit better than 12z...esp near Ray...holding that cold wedge in there pretty decently. The vortmax is southeast of the 12z run. Its not a huge change, but every little bit will help when its this marginal. will, did you see that convective snow wall on the 18z NAM that comes in with the arctic fropa ? That would have 40mph wind gusts in 1/4 mi < vis snow squalls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Surprised they extend the watch that far south. I was thinking maaaybe Cheshire and Hillsborough, but even there, snow criteria is barely met. I can definitely understand the combined effect of snow and ice ... which is why I posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18z GFS looks a bit better than 12z...esp near Ray...holding that cold wedge in there pretty decently. The vortmax is southeast of the 12z run. Its not a huge change, but every little bit will help when its this marginal. It looked like he picked up 2" or so on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Since when is that worth a winter storm watch??? Since 75 days have passed without anything else??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Not that it will have a big snow impact, but the cold air tuck behind storm 1 is kind of intriguing. That could really ice things up across ern mass and even BOS, Thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18z GFS looks a bit better than 12z...esp near Ray...holding that cold wedge in there pretty decently. The vortmax is southeast of the 12z run. Its not a huge change, but every little bit will help when its this marginal. Looks like a toaster bath here...we receive about .25"-.3" QPF as snow before the 0C isotherm at 850mb surges to Canada at 54 hours. Gets very warm eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It looked like he picked up 2" or so on the GFS. Lol, I just looked at the GFS sounding here for 12z Thu and it has zero CAD in the lower levels. Its actually still cold enough aloft for snow, but it torches 900mb and lower. Typical GFS. I think I said yesterday at some point we'd see the GFS show 40F and rain in the same locations other guidance has 29F and IP/ZR or SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Also, I don't think this will be baking powder snow, as we are saturated into 300mb. That's going to be a mix of all different flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Lol, I just looked at the GFS sounding here for 12z Thu and it has zero CAD in the lower levels. Its actually still cold enough aloft for snow, but it torches 900mb and lower. Typical GFS. I think I said yesterday at some point we'd see the GFS show 40F and rain in the same locations other guidance has 29F and IP/ZR or SN. I see the same for BED at 09z. It's like 36-37 for BED. I doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Since 75 days have passed without anything else??? there might be some truth to that...it seems like even here accidents are ridiculous for the first somewhat significant snow. It doesn't matter that you average a lot...it seems like people forget how to drive in the snow during the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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