dendrite Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Wow its going to be close here... I'm hoping for the slightest tick south starting tonight. I'm loving that the NAM essentially held serve from 12z Scott, Brian, What do you think for here? I'm leaning toward 3-5" followed by some pingers and ending as -FZRA/FZDZ. 5-8" up here pre dryslot with useless frozen precip after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm leaning toward 3-5" followed by some pingers and ending as -FZRA/FZDZ. 5-8" up here pre dryslot with useless frozen precip after that. FU LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm leaning toward 3-5" followed by some pingers and ending as -FZRA/FZDZ. 5-8" up here pre dryslot with useless frozen precip after that. I'd be surprised(happily) if I end up with more than 4" with a thicker coating of ice than you will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 here's a good view of it....cross section running from about ktol to mwn. good visual in this event as to why your 850s can be deceiving. notice there are spots that are solidly <0C 850s but a pretty good sized elevated warm layer...perhaps good vvs could offset some...but that's a pretty thick warm layer. That is a helluva useful tool... may I ask where you got/generated it? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hey Brian..please take lots of pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 They always win. They are the Tebow of winter storms. Time to visit the friend in Naples I think... then definitely hit Shawnee in the morning time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm leaning toward 3-5" followed by some pingers and ending as -FZRA/FZDZ. 5-8" up here pre dryslot with useless frozen precip after that. Being further west is going to hurt here in the Monadnocks. I don't like the 18z NAM for Rindge, looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hey Brian..please take lots of pics. hopefully it lays down a good solid snowpack and helps us out down the road. that's about all i got. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Few inches then ice. Ice for my area or just plain rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 8" of flour crusted over with some FZDZ. Oh man that 18z NAM looks good in your area over to jayhawk and dryslot. That snow will be dense and have some staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Being further west is going to hurt here in the Monadnocks. I don't like the 18z NAM for Rindge, looks warm. You'll be cold at the surface, but you should get some snow and then probably IP and ZR. Should be wintry regardless. Hopefully a few inches for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ice for my area or just plain rain? Probably will be brief snow then change to cold rain, before back to freezing drizzle later day and at night.Could see an inch..or a bit more before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looking good still up here on the NAM...what we miss with the first round we pick up with the upper level low. Going to be a wintery few days in the North Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That is a helluva useful tool... may I ask where you got/generated it? Thanks in advance. sent you a PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Fooooooooooooook. My friends going to be at Sugarloaf till Sat... foooooooook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Probably will be brief snow then change to cold rain, before back to freezing drizzle later day and at night.Could see an inch..or a bit more before changeover. Cool thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 FU LOL. Nah...I don't expect smoke.METAR humor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 ORH is close to getting like 2-4", but that warm tongue might ruin it and make it an inch or two perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Cool thanks. It could easily be a coating, but just a guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 here's a good view of it....cross section running from about ktol to mwn. good visual in this event as to why your 850s can be deceiving. notice there are spots that are solidly <0C 850s but a pretty good sized elevated warm layer...perhaps good vvs could offset some...but that's a pretty thick warm layer. are those cross-section maps accessible to public? that is a fantastic way to visualize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 are those cross-section maps accessible to public? that is a fantastic way to visualize it's a pay product run off a piece of software Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nah...I don't expect smoke. METAR humor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It could easily be a coating, but just a guess right now. Understand. Not expecting much anyway...would actually like to see some freezing rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 ORH is close to getting like 2-4", but that warm tongue might ruin it and make it an inch or two perhaps. Warm tongues are such party poopers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 nothing stops the warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 After reviewing the 12z guidance and 18z NAM...I think my thinking from yesterday should still be pretty valid. 1-3 inches of snow followed by sleet and freezing rain for MBY...perhaps up to 4" in Hubbdave territory up near Socks. The timing of course is critical because the precip should be coming down heavily as the snow flips to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 I wonder if BOX issues a watch for the combined snow and ice threat. Otherwise neither one alone meets criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 After reviewing the 12z guidance and 18z NAM...I think my thinking from yesterday should still be pretty valid. 1-3 inches of snow followed by sleet and freezing rain for MBY...perhaps up to 4" in Hubbdave territory up near Socks. The timing of course is critical because the precip should be coming down heavily as the snow flips to sleet. That seems like a good number. Dave is a bit of a wild card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That seems like a good number. Dave is a bit of a wild card. If there only was a little snowpack to cool us a little. But it is the mid-levels anyway that are giving us the ol screwgie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 After reviewing the 12z guidance and 18z NAM...I think my thinking from yesterday should still be pretty valid. 1-3 inches of snow followed by sleet and freezing rain for MBY...perhaps up to 4" in Hubbdave territory up near Socks. The timing of course is critical because the precip should be coming down heavily as the snow flips to sleet. the good thing is you are relying entirely on a front end delivery...llittle more confidence there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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