Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 God bless you....I hold no ill will. You can have 10" of snow. I'll take my icing event and thank the lord for what weather I get. In all seriousness....the cruddy resolution GFS is starting to show decent CAD at 925mb...which is a definite signal for potential icing if the mid-levels end up trending warmer. The CAD has been a very large increase on all guidance since yesterday. Starting to remind me of the trend leading up to 12/16/07...although obviously the antecedent airmass is much warmer than that event...but that high is in a good spot for CAD...and the CAD may be enough to even affect the mid-levels significantly. Maybe Ray will end up getting decent snow afterall in his NE MA location while Kevin gets a 33F rainstorm and ORH gets front end snow to 30F ice. CAn you give me an idea what to realistically expect here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 CAn you give me an idea what to realistically expect here? A little front end snow to brief ice and then cold rain would be my guess at this point...but I am not confident on this system at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 A little front end snow to brief ice and then cold rain would be my guess at this point...but I am not confident on this system at all. Better than rain . If I can grab an inch of snow and some zr then 33 rain and have the snow absorb it at least I'd have an inch left...but am mostly expecting rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It's an unusual situation in that normally you wouldn't get much ice from a coastal low - icing events are 90% of the time overrunning-related. CADs involved, sure, but better icing scenarios occur when there is confluent zone over S/SE Canada in the mid levels, and consequential polar high delivering a llv polar boundary displaced S of the westerlies core. The westerly flow over the top of the boundary then excites WAA and zones of snow, sleet and ZR break out - usually in pulse because the flow over the top of the llv cold tends to carry along with local wind maxes. That's basically what was idealize/realized in that giant 1998 thing. But...not always... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Better than rain . If I can grab an inch of snow and some zr then 33 rain and have the snow absorb it at least I'd have an inch left...but am mostly expecting rain I'd probably keep expectations pretty low for now...if the Euro and other guidance goes decidedly colder tonight and tomorrow morning, then it would be time to get more excited. But I'm wondering if this is the coldest we see the mid-levels get on guidance and now we track back warmer...however, the near sfc CAD is a bit of a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Well, my wood guy dropped off two cords a week early, that should guarentee snow here because I'll never have time to get it all stacked. Oh' and I just noticed my snow blower has a flat tire. I could have given you a saw and you couldn've taken down a tree and used the splitter Why does everyone reply to me like they hate me? My gut is still telling me the seasonal trend is for these systems to get warmer as we get closer. N and W of ORH will be the place to be. I wonder if the area around sunda river fairs the best with this system. I remember a nightmare last month when this was the place to be, too. Hopefully, things have changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It's an unusual situation in that normally you wouldn't get much ice from a coastal low - icing events are 90% of the time overrunning-related. CADs involved, sure, but better icing scenarios occur when there is confluent zone over S/SE Canada in the mid levels, and consequential polar high delivering a llv polar boundary displaced S of the westerlies core. The westerly flow over the top of the boundary then excites WAA and zones of snow, sleet and ZR break out - usually in pulse because the flow over the top of the llv cold tends to carry along with local wind maxes. That's basically what was idealize/realized in that giant 1998 thing. But...not always... Yeah agree here. I think what we are seeing here is a direct result of the previous wx regime letting go and the "new pattern" taking hold. You can essentially see both patterns in this evolution - assuming it unfolds with the CAD sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It's an unusual situation in that normally you wouldn't get much ice from a coastal low - icing events are 90% of the time overrunning-related. CADs involved, sure, but better icing scenarios occur when there is confluent zone over S/SE Canada in the mid levels, and consequential polar high delivering a llv polar boundary displaced S of the westerlies core. The westerly flow over the top of the boundary then excites WAA and zones of snow, sleet and ZR break out - usually in pulse because the flow over the top of the llv cold tends to carry along with local wind maxes. That's basically what was idealize/realized in that giant 1998 thing. But...not always... Yeah noirmally they are weaker lows coming out of the lakes or OH Valley...but the Dec 2008 ice storm definitely bucked that trend...pretty potent coastal low that crushed us...its also what made that event feel weird...we were gusting to like 25 knots in the middle of an ice storm...usually the winds are quite light. That typical light northerly drain. But in that storm, we had like 25 knots ripping from 020, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 strange setup i'll just have to watch and learn these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 you guys want snow? Just head down to the Washington DC area Hope you guys didn't close schools for tomorrow cause of the dusting down there slum dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I have a feeling we see mostly rain to the NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I could have given you a saw and you couldn've taken down a tree and used the splitter I remember a nightmare last month when this was the place to be, too. Hopefully, things have changed. BOX's forecast for the east slope has gotten decidedly better. ALB's adjacent zones looking better as well. Considering this was supposed to be "rain to the Canadian border" I'll count it as a victory if there is a stripe of snow anywhere from here to Jay Peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I have a feeling we see mostly rain to the NH border This pattern has clearly gotten to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 18z GEFS are still pretty cold...only get the R/S line to maybe Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 18z GEFS are still pretty cold...only get the R/S line to maybe Kevin. lol. You have a mean streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 lol. You have a mean streak. I ts a good run for him actually...thats the furthest NW it gets...which means he'd be mostly snow. But I do not believe the cold the GEFS are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I could have given you a saw and you couldn've taken down a tree and used the splitter Have access to both thanks. Do you want to cone help with that project? LOL Looking better for you and I Thursday. I'm sure I'll have elevation envy but I think latitude is on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 lol. You have a mean streak. As woty you have to ride the snowiest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I have a feeling we see mostly rain to the NH border Safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I ts a good run for him actually...thats the furthest NW it gets...which means he'd be mostly snow. But I do not believe the cold the GEFS are showing. Take a look at the 15z eta. Toaster bath for all except nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Have access to both thanks. Do you want to cone help with that project? LOL Looking better for you and I Thursday. I'm sure I'll have elevation envy but I think latitude is on our side. Indeed it is. A little to gunshy this year to get to amped up at this point. The good thing is that the P-type issue this year has really allowed me to come to terms with my inner-qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I ts a good run for him actually...thats the furthest NW it gets...which means he'd be mostly snow. But I do not believe the cold the GEFS are showing. Like Jerry said, it's every man for himself. I'm just hoping things break decently for GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I could see this going over the Cape and giving Will some decent ice after an inch or two of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I do not see any good reason to buck the season long trend yet, perhaps later next week. Berkshires1500 up 2-4 then ice greens and whites jackpot 4-8......northern orh above 1k a little front end snow followed by brief ice to rain. Everywhere else, water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 At the moment, my guts says we are going to get some ice...some snow on the front end before that. But I fully expect the following to happen: 1. The NAM will have a run between now and tomorrow that gives most of SNE 8-10" of snow. 2. Euro will keep oscillating between colder and warmer in the mid-levels, but gradually be trending warmer. 3. The GFS will show 40F and rain for you at some point when the Euro and other models have 29F and ZR. As long as it doesn't go into your fanny, I'll treat this as a win....if nothing else.. just to get snow down across New England and NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 As long as it doesn't go into your fanny, I'll treat this as a win....if nothing else.. just to get snow down across New England and NY state. Pretty much my feeling, any snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 At the moment, my guts says we are going to get some ice...some snow on the front end before that. But I fully expect the following to happen: 1. The NAM will have a run between now and tomorrow that gives most of SNE 8-10" of snow. 2. Euro will keep oscillating between colder and warmer in the mid-levels, but gradually be trending warmer. 3. The GFS will show 40F and rain for you at some point when the Euro and other models have 29F and ZR. Although I'm not happy about the bolded... Hopefully the next run it will stand pat, but expecting wet crusty slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 From Tim Kelley (NECN) Pf's lil skiing buddy ECMWF Worcester Massachusetts Forecast 13" Snow Thursday, SSWXM Fcst 1" Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 From Tim Kelley (NECN) Pf's lil skiing buddy ECMWF Worcester Massachusetts Forecast 13" Snow Thursday, SSWXM Fcst 1" Rain Where do you read this? Twitter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Where do you read this? Twitter? yup via the NECN siteHe is pretty good SSWX is Ski and Surf Weatherman btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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