weathafella Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i think that is despair talking. how can anyone really believe that? not reaching 5" is out of the question. it isnt realistic. and it is jan 10! use all of the models you want, it is impossible to accurately predict the next 2-2.5 months. Yes I would agree. But we have had winters in the 10 inch range at BOS. Why won't this be one of them or perhaps be the grand daddy? I'm sorry but yes the pattern can change but in winters like this, it is quite rare. it happened in 2006-07 but the signal for this year's pattern change is getting muted every 12 hours. Why is the 5 inch total not realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 looks alrite for you i dont know what your seeing? Oh well. ORH probably gets nothing while not too far away does well. This winter is getting pretty comical now. Going into Boston in an hour and going to the Bruins so thankfully I'll be away from the board. Otherwise I'd probably be refreshing the 18z runs and 00z runs even though its just about over here. Good luck to CNE/NNE :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i think that is despair talking. how can anyone really believe that? not reaching 5" is out of the question. it isnt realistic. and it is jan 10! use all of the models you want, it is impossible to accurately predict the next 2-2.5 months. Well, it is possible. Not likely, but possible. 1972-73 only gave BOS 10", and some of that was before Jan 10... I do feel bad. I love snow so much, but I also know we get clunkers from time to time. For me, this year might not even wind up a total clunker due to the 20+" I got in October Freakshow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'd definitely take this...and BOX wrote this before the euro (seems very optimistic) which was colder than the gfs. I would certainly take an inch or two followed by pl/zr to cold rain and be happy. Pretty sad to say on 1/10. If we can get a slight colder trend at 00z I could be back in the game, but for now I expect nothing except for pl/zr to rain. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ESTIMATES ARE 1-3" N OF THE PIKE INCREASING TO 3-6" N OF ROUTE 2...BUT THIS CAN STILL CHANGE WITH HIGHER OR LOWER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AND EXACT THERMAL PROFILE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 looks alrite for you i dont know what your seeing? Not sure what you mean by "alrite." I'd take 1-2" but I don't think the chances of more than that are high. Here's BOX's facebook map posted at 6am this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It's really quite close with the 12z suite. The latest Euro sort of closes off a brief 850 low along the Seacoast, and that is enough to save the interior areas from going above 0 C during early Friday. If that doesn't play out we probably see more warm air flood north aloft and could start to see IP or icing well inland. The CAD is probably the highest confidence feature at this point, I feel very comfortable with surface temps below freezing. At this point, I hope the Euro ends up right, Nam looked close, GFS was warmest of all, A slight jog SE would help if we don't close off a low, Looks like the low opens before it gets here on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'd definitely take this...and BOX wrote this before the euro (seems very optimistic) which was colder than the gfs. I would certainly take an inch or two followed by pl/zr to cold rain and be happy. Pretty sad to say on 1/10. If we can get a slight colder trend at 00z I could be back in the game, but for now I expect nothing except for pl/zr to rain. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ESTIMATES ARE 1-3" N OF THE PIKE INCREASING TO 3-6" N OF ROUTE 2...BUT THIS CAN STILL CHANGE WITH HIGHER OR LOWER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AND EXACT THERMAL PROFILE. Sounds ok although I did not see the euro yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'd definitely take this...and BOX wrote this before the euro (seems very optimistic) which was colder than the gfs. I would certainly take an inch or two followed by pl/zr to cold rain and be happy. Pretty sad to say on 1/10. If we can get a slight colder trend at 00z I could be back in the game, but for now I expect nothing except for pl/zr to rain. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ESTIMATES ARE 1-3" N OF THE PIKE INCREASING TO 3-6" N OF ROUTE 2...BUT THIS CAN STILL CHANGE WITH HIGHER OR LOWER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AND EXACT THERMAL PROFILE. Pretty much unchanged since early this morning. I would not go as high as 6" Maybe 2-4" N of Rte 2 1-2 between the Pike and 2 Feels like Dec 23 all over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sounds ok although I did not see the euro yet. The 12z nam looked best for areas around the pike...the gradient that the gfs has around the NH border the nam has around the pike. I think my best case scenario would be what the nam has where I get 3-4" to pl/zr ending as a period of rain. But at this point I think no snow at all is a more likely scenario. edit: Then again 850 layer on the 12z nam is warm, not sure I even get that much. Maybe more like 2" around 12z before taint. Looks like a good amount of sleet on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like ice potential for Berkshires?? Meh If Friday pans out like euro indicates it will snow like mad for the spine of the greens. Strong QG forcing and upslope. Congrats! After looking over the first 72 hours worth of the 12z ECM I think I see what has transpired in the last 12 hours to unravel the colder appeal. Prior to last night’s runs, the southern stream closed low opening up and moving up the coast was always kept as a separate entity that damped a tad …while still conserving enough dynamics to do the trick as it passed through. Now, the ECM is showing it phasing with the MW/OV L/W amplification, and that drills the mid level temperatures way up. Probably starts as some winteriness but +3 to +5 850mb is probably a good bet later in the event. Wow-that warm? Reallly? http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0 I hate those wundergroupnd maps.....I can't follow them at all. I think they say congrats PF, though--as they should! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I was looking at the entire hemisphere for days 9-10 especially. Not saying the pattern gets a lot better, but looks like the cold may be sticking around longer, at least per this mode run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Not sure what you mean by "alrite." I'd take 1-2" but I don't think the chances of more than that are high. Here's BOX's facebook map posted at 6am this morning. I'm about a 3/4 of a mile of route 2 so lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18z nam looks east of 12z slightly through 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18 hr NAM looks like the primary low is a little more progressive and a little farther south. The GL low is a little quicker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 SREFs came south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro looks virtually identical from 00z as far as temps go. Maybe slightly warmer near ground level, but I think it overall looks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 SREFs are pretty lousy near I-90. Looks like you need to go near Rt 2 and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18z nam is still cold at the start. Looks like a 34F snow to start at hour 33 for far NW NJ. I think its going to be similar to 12z though, good rt 2 and north, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I like red donuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro looks virtually identical from 00z as far as temps go. Maybe slightly warmer near ground level, but I think it overall looks the same. They had looked like they had held serve from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOOTH Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I like red donuts. Me too. I"d live off them if I could. Feed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 6z Thursday starts at snow for BDL/HFD...maybe for like a half hour only though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18z NAM pounds on CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 SREFs are pretty lousy near I-90. Looks like you need to go near Rt 2 and north. We should probably qualify it as RT 2 N above 1000'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18z NAM pounds on CNE. Yes it does, and pretty windy along the south coast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I was looking at the entire hemisphere for days 9-10 especially. Not saying the pattern gets a lot better, but looks like the cold may be sticking around longer, at least per this mode run. I see Danbury as your loc...I definitely think I saw you in the Danbury Mall...do you work there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18z nam storm seems to be slowing down its speed if you look at 12z and 18z same time it is defanitly slowing on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 greens whites sw maine hammer time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 THats got to be really close for a pounding in the berks above 1500 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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