NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well, enjoy it up there guys. I look too far south and east for much of anything with this one. Also look too far east for the Friday ULL. WNE/NY/VT should do well. Maybe several additional fluffy inches there. I'm jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hi Guys. First time newbie poster here. Great info on the site. How does Sugarloaf stand through this? Will the Loaf get the same amounts as are predicted for Sunday River? Slightly better elevation up at the loaf. Thank you all very much for the info and entertainment. I live in Maine. Split time between Camden and Sugarloaf. So pumped for whatever we get. Again thanks. Welcome, You look to do well up there on thurs and friday as well, 12"+ not out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Again, any news on the UKIE? Did it cave warmer too? http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ukmet.html ukie is warmer 12Z Jan 10 vs. 0Z Jan 10 again, more of a phase with the ohio valley low, warming ML temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The king does not sound very promising for sne for the forseeable future outside of some flakes on friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Heh, maybe if you all pray hard enough the 12z NOGAPs solution would verify. Actually, the GGEM has a razor thin margine for error between S NH and the M. Pike. 850mb 0C line gets to about Rt 2, during max QPF. So there's some front snow to ice in that I'd imagine. Unfortunately, neither of these two guidance types are all great. There was a storm around the 27th of December give or take where the Euro blew it pretty badly ...busting hugely cold. Why, oh why can't it bust warm at 36 hours - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 They'll probably need what, 8-12" to open the trails? Let's hope and pray they hit and then again next week. Tough times up there. In town was not good looking at bishops web cam, Out towards the sporting club and the border cut there is riding but this should give that area a good shot in the arm for sure and should be able to build on it the next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah Mark, I think we end as some IP then drizzle Gut feeling is that there is a little IP in this area during the height of the WAA aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 After looking over the first 72 hours worth of the 12z ECM I think I see what has transpired in the last 12 hours to unravel the colder appeal. Prior to last night’s runs, the southern stream closed low opening up and moving up the coast was always kept as a separate entity that damped a tad …while still conserving enough dynamics to do the trick as it passed through. Now, the ECM is showing it phasing with the MW/OV L/W amplification, and that drills the mid level temperatures way up. Probably starts as some winteriness but +3 to +5 850mb is probably a good bet later in the event. There's no phasing going on at all. Nothing of that magnitude changed. There are only subtle differences in the track of the southern stream low, the UL confluence and strength of the high to our north. We all noted the high sensitivity of the situation to these factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Gut feeling is that there is a little IP in this area during the height of the WAA aloft. 850's looked to get warm, How far inland do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Are you meaning Grey or up in Lewiston where Jeff is? I'm Mark btw, nice to meet you. I live in Merrimack County NH at 675ft 15 miles north of Concord on the town line of Salisbury and Webster. I usually get about what Dendrite gets. My over under for this storm is 5", meaning anything more than 5 is a victory lol. We need to start to pile it up though out here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Here's the raw Euro for FIT, MA Thing is, that’s gotten to be a weighty high P N, there seems to be a SWFE type morphology possibly at hand. Interesting. Sometimes you can get a solid 8” event prior to transition from those when you have a antecedent polar dome to overcome. Colder than 0Z for storm for FIT... There's .6" in frozen at FIT befoe the 850 mb level barely overcomes 0C 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 06Z 12-JAN -1.5 -3.5 1018 80 33 0.00 554 539 THU 12Z 12-JAN 0.1 -3.0 1012 97 100 0.13 551 542 THU 18Z 12-JAN 0.6 -1.8 1003 99 100 0.47 545 543 FRI 00Z 13-JAN 1.1 1.1 1000 96 40 0.25 546 547 FRI 06Z 13-JAN 0.0 1.4 1000 97 46 0.01 542 543 FRI 12Z 13-JAN 0.5 2.2 995 99 87 0.03 537 540 FRI 18Z 13-JAN 2.7 -6.1 991 79 44 0.09 524 531 SAT 00Z 14-JAN -2.9 -9.4 998 68 79 0.01 522 523 SAT 06Z 14-JAN -3.9 -9.1 1003 72 77 0.00 527 525 SAT 12Z 14-JAN -6.6 -11.9 1008 74 63 0.00 531 524 SAT 18Z 14-JAN -4.3 -14.3 1011 56 71 0.00 531 522 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Heh, maybe if you all pray hard enough the 12z NOGAPs solution would verify. Actually, the GGEM has a razor thin margine for error between S NH and the M. Pike. 850mb 0C line gets to about Rt 2, during max QPF. So there's some front snow to ice in that I'd imagine. Unfortunately, neither of these two guidance types are all great. There was a storm around the 27th of December give or take where the Euro blew it pretty badly ...busting hugely cold. Why, oh why can't it bust warm at 36 hours - LOL this has been a recurring theme this winter Euro typically kills inside 48hrs... Interesting post-mortem thought for the first half of this winter: What is it about this winter that has made the Euro frequently too cold, and dethroned by the GFS where a "southeast bias" in many winters is actually correct this winter? Would be interested in any ideas from anyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 There's no phasing going on at all. Nothing of that magnitude changed. There are only subtle differences in the track of the southern stream low, the UL confluence and strength of the high to our north. We all noted the high sensitivity of the situation to these factors. dude, yes there is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Gut feeling is that there is a little IP in this area during the height of the WAA aloft. I assume you're talking about L-A, since that was in reply to Dryslot's question. What's your gut feeling about the immediate Portland area? To me this has the look of a 3-4" thump followed by some IP, rain and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The long range is falling apart big time. Looks like we may have just a few below normal days before we resume the same old pattern by the 25th. Pitcher in the 6th inning now, just has to get these big boys out........futility record quite possible. Better yet.....not reaching 5 inches at BOS is not out of the question. If that happens, then average last year and this year and you're close to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOOTH Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Thank you DRYSLOT and HUBBDAVE. You guys made my week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 down into CT I think IP and ZR could be more of a player than SN, but the Wunderground EC snow maps have a few inches for the northern half of the state... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The long range is falling apart big time. Looks like we may have just a few below normal days before we resume the same old pattern by the 25th. Pitcher in the 6th inning now, just has to get these big boys out........futility record quite possible. Better yet.....not reaching 5 inches at BOS is not out of the question. If that happens, then average last year and this year and you're close to climo. Fella fella fella... Perhaps I'm superstitious... Won't say anything more along these lines until Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The long range is falling apart big time. Looks like we may have just a few below normal days before we resume the same old pattern by the 25th. Pitcher in the 6th inning now, just has to get these big boys out........futility record quite possible. Better yet.....not reaching 5 inches at BOS is not out of the question. If that happens, then average last year and this year and you're close to climo. have you seen the 12z day 8,9,10 EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 850's looked to get warm, How far inland do you think? Are you meaning Grey or up in Lewiston where Jeff is? I'm Mark btw, nice to meet you. I live in Merrimack County NH at 675ft 15 miles north of Concord on the town line of Salisbury and Webster. I usually get about what Dendrite gets. My over under for this storm is 5", meaning anything more than 5 is a victory lol. We need to start to pile it up though out here.... I would say during the height of things CON to PWM will have serious mixing issues. But right as the coastal low is pulling away temps aloft kind of surge northward and I think somewhere between GYX and LEW that line is going to set up. So hopefully it's just a brief window of pingers. As is typical of these kind of events, precip should shut off quickly as the low is pulling away, leaving us with the FZDZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice - the Euro smacks your face with rainstorm in 8 days, followed by more knuckle clucking cold no doubt…. Jesus. I think through all of this we really are still in wait of the AO to fall… In the last 3 or 4 days, after falling to neutral, it’s popped back to +1SD … However, the overnight has it really getting strongly negative in more than half the members (not sure about the 12z) in just a week to 10 days. I think once that happens we start getting more bona fide winter threats. These 3 to 4 day vagaries probably don’t mean a whole hill of beans on the anomaly spatial distributions around the landscape, but stepping back … if the mean succeeds here we’d be talking +3SD all the way to -3SD inside of month. That’s gotta mean some stuff - I am also noticing that subtle placement changes in the EPO ridging is having adverse affect on the winter pattern at lower downwind latitudes - such is life. We get the PV really weakened, things will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Eh, GFS.....lol So true. I would just like all guidance in the fold ... and that includes the SREFs that were threatening to bend me over the ottoman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boolean Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The long range is falling apart big time. Looks like we may have just a few below normal days before we resume the same old pattern by the 25th. Pitcher in the 6th inning now, just has to get these big boys out........futility record quite possible. Better yet.....not reaching 5 inches at BOS is not out of the question. If that happens, then average last year and this year and you're close to climo. i think that is despair talking. how can anyone really believe that? not reaching 5" is out of the question. it isnt realistic. and it is jan 10! use all of the models you want, it is impossible to accurately predict the next 2-2.5 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So true. I would just like all guidance in the fold ... and that includes the SREFs that were threatening to bend me over the ottoman. CAD maybe getting underplayed some here to, Guess we will see how things go the rest of today and at 0z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 have you seen the 12z day 8,9,10 EC? Huh? Looks a storm goes over SNE followed by a dry, cool shot... where have we seen this movie before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I would say during the height of things CON to PWM will have serious mixing issues. But right as the coastal low is pulling away temps aloft kind of surge northward and I think somewhere between GYX and LEW that line is going to set up. So hopefully it's just a brief window of pingers. As is typical of these kind of events, precip should shut off quickly as the low is pulling away, leaving us with the FZDZ. GYX and LEW are usually the spots that are on the fence, I figured as much looking at 850 temps, They looked to go above 0c for a time, But should be a good front end thump before hand, We could use the cement to solidify a base anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 looks like rain to me have you seen the 12z day 8,9,10 EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 have you seen the 12z day 8,9,10 EC? D8: not snow D9: cold! No snow on qpf maps D10: A tiny bit of snow maybe. It looks decent in the NHEM d10 so lets see where it goes afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Oh well. ORH probably gets nothing while not too far away does well. This winter is getting pretty comical now. Going into Boston in an hour and going to the Bruins so thankfully I'll be away from the board. Otherwise I'd probably be refreshing the 18z runs and 00z runs even though its just about over here. Good luck to CNE/NNE :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GYX and LEW are usually the spots that are on the fence, I figured as much looking at 850 temps, They looked to go above 0c for a time, But should be a good front end thump before hand, We could use the cement to solidify a base anyways. It's really quite close with the 12z suite. The latest Euro sort of closes off a brief 850 low along the Seacoast, and that is enough to save the interior areas from going above 0 C during early Friday. If that doesn't play out we probably see more warm air flood north aloft and could start to see IP or icing well inland. The CAD is probably the highest confidence feature at this point, I feel very comfortable with surface temps below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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