OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Both storms? Only for Thursday, not including the light snowfall possible early Friday if that's what you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 i have a feeling someone is going to see a pretty good icestorm out of this it will be a fine line but someone will get one All we (CRV) will end up getting is rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Preliminary call Does this include snows with the upper level low? I see you have "Thursday" written so I would assume no? That upper level low has over-performer written all over it on Friday, IMO. Both SNE and NNE. All models have a nice area of lift moving through on Friday when that trough axis moves over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Does this include snows with the upper level low? I see you have "Thursday" written so I would assume no? That upper level low has over-performer written all over it on Friday, IMO. Both SNE and NNE. All models have a nice area of lift moving through on Friday when that trough axis moves over the region. Yes it does! That's why I asked.. You probably will see foot plus, glades FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Around here at least this looks like a six hour warm advection thump: 6z to 12z. NAM has .7" in 6 hours. Then only .2" the rest of Thursday and maybe by then it doesn't matter much whether that is FZRA or PL or pure cold rain. Lets hope that first thump can be snow or at least snow/sleet.... Unless this comes really close, we might not have enough QPF once it changes, but that will be track dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Only for Thursday, not including the light snowfall possible early Friday if that's what you mean I'm really liking the upper level low. Those seem to be over-performers more often than not. Like fluff after the synoptic storm. High ratio and usually comes down pretty hard for a time as it swings through. 12z GFS and NAM are in pretty good agreement with this feature. 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Preliminary call Thanks Sam! I'll take that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Around here at least this looks like a six hour warm advection thump: 6z to 12z. NAM has .7" in 6 hours. Then only .2" the rest of Thursday and maybe by then it doesn't matter much whether that is FZRA or PL or pure cold rain. Lets hope that first thump can be snow or at least snow/sleet.... You will clean up with the upper level low, Rick. I'm telling you that's the real deal... check out the 12z NAM and GFS images I posted. Compare to this 00z GGEM. All the models have this now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 SNE has become the new MA for infighting Can't we all just get along? lol pf, I might move up there because of your pics Hopefully this will waver back colder/south (just a little) We just need to avoid a disaster for WaWa. Any small gains would be huge as just a few days ago it appeared to be a major setback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Unless this comes really close, we might not have enough QPF once it changes, but that will be track dependent. Latest SREFs seem to be hitting that FZDZ pretty hard up this way. Early Friday the probs for FZRA if a member precipitates are awfully high. Seems like that window between the main low and the next shortwave upper levels dry out just enough to support this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Latest SREFs seem to be hitting that FZDZ pretty hard up this way. Early Friday the probs for FZRA if a member precipitates are awfully high. Seems like that window between the main low and the next shortwave upper levels dry out just enough to support this. could see that being an issue right down into metro boston perhaps...though hesitant to believe just how cold the LLs are on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Preliminary call Good map Sam, The area you have with heaviest snow looks spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hopefully we can get some gusts close to HWA criteria, dont think flooding will be an issue in most areas since the ground is not frozen. Congrats to our friends up north, looks like some cement for the north kingdom such a better outcome than was progged a few days ago, its pretty unbelievable how much guidance has cooled over the last 4 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks pretty good if that is for real. You will clean up with the upper level low, Rick. I'm telling you that's the real deal... check out the 12z NAM and GFS images I posted. Compare to this 00z GGEM. All the models have this now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Any word on crazy uncle Ukie? He was real cold last night with an all snow event for much of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Preliminary call I like your map, Sam. Looks good from the current look of things. But...................I've seen this movie before and I'm afraid of how it might end. I will not be suprised at all if I fare better on Friday than tomorrow night/Thurs. That's for many of us, I might add. weenie flakes here in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I like your map, Sam. Looks good from the current look of things. But...................I've seen this movie before and I'm afraid of how it might end. I will not be suprised at all if I fare better on Friday than tomorrow night/Thurs. That's for many of us, I might add. weenie flakes here in the meantime. You will get a surprise on friday, That ULL is pretty stout as it swings thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You will get a surprise on friday, That ULL is pretty stout as it swings thru I hope you're able to fire up the doos soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I hope you're able to fire up the doos soon! Me to, Should be able to make a trek to J-Town after this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 im thinking 1 to 2 inches of snow then sleet and freezing rain for a brief period before we flip to rain then maybe another 1 to 4 friday i wasnt thinking an icestorm for here but further north All we (CRV) will end up getting is rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Again, any news on the UKIE? Did it cave warmer too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 We just need to avoid a disaster for WaWa. Any small gains would be huge as just a few days ago it appeared to be a major setback. We will be there on Thursday... rain or snow or ice (unless school is cancelled) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I like your map, Sam. Looks good from the current look of things. But...................I've seen this movie before and I'm afraid of how it might end. I will not be suprised at all if I fare better on Friday than tomorrow night/Thurs. That's for many of us, I might add. weenie flakes here in the meantime. I agree... if I was north of the NH border I would feel better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 I see a lot of people counting on Friday ... not lol at the possibility, just at the overwhelming theme of replies to my map haha I definitely agree that this could be a decent performer for many. These type of events usually have some high ratio accumulations. Mid level temperatures tumble during the day Friday, lowering the snow growth zone. A period of decent omega in the SGZ moves through ahead of a spoke on the upper level low. Easily a 2-5" event, with options for much more with upslode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Phew. Euro is another nice hit for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z euro pretty much held serve from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Phew. Euro is another nice hit for NNE. Held serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z euro pretty much held serve from 0z I didn't see 00z.. how is it for MHT? Gonna be real close here. Feel a lot better than the other storms since we actually have cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 We will be there on Thursday... rain or snow or ice (unless school is cancelled) I'm thinking of hitting it tomorrow for 9am chair for 2 hrs. Maybe Thurs afternoon as well. Boy did I miss big last year, let's hope for a big finish here and the start of an epic stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Held serve Wasn't the 00z run giving Kevin a little snow, too? Good thing he ignores the gfs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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