Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 No reason to point tem out. they are available for all to see I'm not sitting here reading everyone's posts. I don't have the time to do that. If you feel you were attacked without provocation, report the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Precisely. She doesn't speak for us. Go on gurl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If your so mad about them getting snow why dont you move there and you wont have to worry? No reason to point tem out. they are available for all to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I was merely backing up your point regarding some get snow and some don't, and those that aren't getting it can sometimes be vocal about it. Ok, That is true, I use to b**ch about it back on eastern but realize we have no control over it so its useless and just clogs up the threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 well, I must apologize - I didnt' see this coming. I thought things would be more settled by this morning; in retrospect, I'm smacking my own face wondering why I thought that would be case when there aren't any precursor purer teleconnector signals in the background. Although ...heh, this year it should not be surprising based on seasonal trends and recognizing the models trying to operate cycle to cycle within those. I am speaking of course to the ECM's balmy overnight run after such a cold profile yesterday at 12z, and the 06z GFS's taking the vort max WEST of BOS overnight! It is still possible those are errors - but I am not holding my hat on that. I do recall saying yesterday that the NOA being positive really did argue for a NW track - at the time I was 50/50. But I saw the UKIE at 00z, and knowing that inside of 80 or so hours, that models verification scores are surprisingly competitive against the Euro, and in fact better than the GFS, it was a bit more hopeful. But seeing the 00z ECM be horrid - I'm backed off on this. I don't have a very good feeling on this system to be totally blunt. What appeared to be more confidence last night is a house of cards looking back. My old trusty method doesn't really support a winter-like event - but again, there are anomalies embedded within anomalies all the time. Simply put: it can still happen, but I don't think if it does I will be right about much of anything as again, my feeling on this thing is all over the place. I have seen the NAM be about as oblivious, just as much it has been right as rain against these bicep global models over the last 4 years. Synoptically, the colder profile should work given to the BL conditions/better polar high N/CADing and so forth, yet these globals ignore that and bully the warm right through. The NAM, on the other hand when using the FRH grid profile over BOS does not look icy though – it looks like heavy snow W of BED along the Mohawk Trail (rt poopers), with some sleet contamination. Narrow icing in a band between there and the Pike. Butt banged by cold rain S of there/Pike. But that is extrapolating WNW from BOS based on spatial awareness and pattern recognition experience in the past. The BUFKIT profiles I strongly suggest should be implemented, but I can't do that from here. Hi stakes event - if it is missed, the impact would be ginormous. The NAM's 12z GPF is hugely over an inch, and if that were to fall as 2/3 snow, and then 1/3 ice at interior locales such as FIT-Barre Falls- Orange mass, the impact would on the N side of moderate, with limited warning. On the other hand, if the NAM is pulling some of its usual crap of being too cold or warm, only to correct inside of 30 hours - which we won't unfortunately know for another day, then all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I am weeniehoping that the north trend is temporary and we settle back. The cold signal has been pretty strong and climo would suggest a little slip back to the se. But who knows. I wouldn't mind 4-6 of snow covered with a crust for a permasnowpack for more snow to rest on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I don't know what all the excitement was about.. I've been more concerned with rain up here than lack of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Kev, you can always do what I did. Get so fed up with all the snow to your north you build a cabin in the mountains. Talk about weenie of the year. It's almost embarasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If your so mad about them getting snow why dont you move there and you wont have to worry? WTF are you talking about? I'm not mad they are getting snow. If you took the time to actually read the post I said it was good for them and all. I said we were frustrated because it wasn't us getting the snow and didn't want to read about it. I always hope everyone gets snow, I just want to be a part of it. Most of the attacks against me this AM were from folks who had trouble comprehending what i was writing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 1.00-1.25" qpf up here on the Nam.. Shave a 3rd off of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 OK, GFS, time to come back to reality right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 well, I must apologize - I didnt' see this coming. I thought things would be more settled by this morning; in retrospect, I'm smacking my own face wondering why I thought that would be case when there aren't any precursor purer teleconnector signals in the background. Although ...heh, this year it should not be surprising based on seasonal trends and recognizing the models trying to operate cycle to cycle within those. I am speaking of course to the ECM's balmy overnight run after such a cold profile yesterday at 12z, and the 06z GFS's taking the vort max WEST of BOS overnight! It is still possible those are errors - but I am not holding my hat on that. I do recall saying yesterday that the NOA being positive really did argue for a NW track - at the time I was 50/50. But I saw the UKIE at 00z, and knowing that inside of 80 or so hours, that models verification scores are surprisingly competitive against the Euro, and in fact better than the GFS, it was a bit more hopeful. But seeing the 00z ECM be horrid - I'm backed off on this. I don't have a very good feeling on this system to be totally blunt. What appeared to be more confidence last night is a house of cards looking back. My old trusty method doesn't really support a winter-like event - but again, there are anomalies embedded within anomalies all the time. Simply put: it can still happen, but I don't think if it does I will be right about much of anything as again, my feeling on this thing is all over the place. I have seen the NAM be about as oblivious, just as much it has been right as rain against these bicep global models over the last 4 years. Synoptically, the colder profile should work given to the BL conditions/better polar high N/CADing and so forth, yet these globals ignore that and bully the warm right through. The NAM, on the other hand when using the FRH grid profile over BOS does not look icy though – it looks like heavy snow W of BED along the Mohawk Trail (rt poopers), with some sleet contamination. Narrow icing in a band between there and the Pike. Butt banged by cold rain S of there/Pike. But that is extrapolating WNW from BOS based on spatial awareness and pattern recognition experience in the past. The BUFKIT profiles I strongly suggest should be implemented, but I can't do that from here. Hi stakes event - if it is missed, the impact would be ginormous. The NAM's 12z GPF is hugely over an inch, and if that were to fall as 2/3 snow, and then 1/3 ice at interior locales such as FIT-Barre Falls- Orange mass, the impact would on the N side of moderate, with limited warning. On the other hand, if the NAM is pulling some of its usual crap of being too cold or warm, only to correct inside of 30 hours - which we won't unfortunately know for another day, then all bets are off. Alot of us did see this coming. Lucky you didn't take me up on that wager offer. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is a Jan 2008 pattern....not Dec 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z GFS looking notably better so far guys and gals. Lower heights over New England, high pressure is stronger. Note the orientation of the isobars are sloped more NW to SE. The upper low is also stronger so far, and tilted less negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 well the gfs is better but after 0z and 6z i dont see how it couldnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Shave a 3rd off of that. .84" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 well the gfs is better but after 0z and 6z i dont see how it couldnt whoa whoa whoa, don't tempt the wrath of the something high atop the thing. Go outside turn around three times and spit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 whoa whoa whoa, don't tempt the wrath of the something high atop the thing. Go outside turn around three times and spit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12hr GFS looking more like the 00 than the 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 FWIW GFS mayt be coming in colder, but no surprise since 06z was a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I got buried last night, I'm so happy. That's two traces in the last week, things are really coming around. Good luck to all of those in northern SNE and CNE/NNE. SNE...well we're Miami of New England this year, enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I got buried last night, I'm so happy. That's two traces in the last week, things are really coming around. Good luck to all of those in northern SNE and CNE/NNE. SNE...well we're Miami of New England this year, enjoy. Only a trace? I'm in Hanover and a good 0.75" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What I don't understand about the GFS is why it doesn't show a more pronounced primary low off the coast?It shows the transfer of moisture. It seems to want to hold onto the Great Lakes low a lot longer. At least it is much colder than the previous run though. Just seems a little dissorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Alot of us did see this coming. Lucky you didn't take me up on that wager offer. lol BS! the only thinng you saw coming was a wanton disregard for Meteorological reasoning in lieu of the weird popular voice going on around here to abuse your selves with this neurotic nit-picking and find reasons to be negative for snow. The 00Z Euro could easily have come in more in line with the previous run, then what would have? Nothing... It's not over yet - either. I'm trying to be objective about this. As I said, I don't have a clear vision/feel for this, but that doesn't discount a colder solution verifying on the whole. But see? It's presumptuously rushing to a conclusion that hasn't happened yet. Come on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 FWIW GFS mayt be coming in colder, but no surprise since 06z was a furnace. CAD doing its part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 BS! the only thinng you saw coming was a wanton disregard for Meteorological reasoning in lieu of the weird popular voice going on around here to abuse your selves with this neurotic nit-picking and find reasons to be negative for snow. The 00Z Euro could easily have come in more in line with the previous run, then what would have? Nothing... It's not over yet - either. I'm trying to be objective about this. As I said, I don't have a clear vision/feel for this, but that doesn't discount a colder solution verifying on the whole. But see? It's presumptuously rushing to a conclusion that hasn't happened yet. Come on! I disagree. We gave meteorological reason why it could come north, but only to a point. However, it still could be enough to screw many of snow and give them more ice or rain. Some of the members may have just been pessimistic, just to be pessimistic...but the funny thing is that there is a reason why people are pessmistic and it ties to some things that have been a continual cycle in this winter. Southern stream systems with no blocking have come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I also mentioned that even if it does come closer, it may take snow away, but the CAD signal won't weaken as much. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Walt Drag cold tuck on GFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Wow, the NAM is just a snow bomb for the eastern dacks from SLK to GFL. I would pay money for this to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm really excited for the people up north... this was never going to be much of anything worthwhile here so I'm glad the places up north will be able to cash in. Ski country FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.