Logan11 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Meanwhile the 6Z GFS has very little surface reflection along the coast and predictably rams the warm air very far north quickly. It may be wrong ...we still have the Euro. The NAM is more in the Euro camp. SREF's look more like it also. Right on the line here on most guidance...hoping to rip for a few hours and pull off 2-3"...but I'm not confident. 6z nam came in very cold...looks like mostly snow except for the immediate coast. Back to bed for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I am still enjoying the late week graphical forecast put out this morning... -SN now at 30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 6z GFS is awfully warm and sends the vortmax through NH. lol EC op, EC ens, SREFs, 6z NAM, Ukie, and GGEM are all low end warning criteria for interior NH into ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I haven't looked at anything yet. Is it a rainer for me? Ice please??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Meanwhile the 6Z GFS has very little surface reflection along the coast and predictably rams the warm air very far north quickly. It may be wrong ...we still have the Euro. The NAM is more in the Euro camp. SREF's look more like it also. Awful. Just aful. If there's anyting resembling the 06z GFS during the 12z runs today, Eric's going to have to get his new gif out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I see Arnold browsing. Looks like GYX added the dreaded IP with the snow into the point-click. I wouldn't be shocked if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 6z GFS is awfully warm and sends the vortmax through NH. lol EC op, EC ens, SREFs, 6z NAM, Ukie, and GGEM are all low end warning criteria for interior NH into ME. Yeah hoping thats a hiccup. I was all set with this just sliding off to the SE. We made some game changers yesterday to our operations plan this week based on this staying all frozen prior to the weekend. At least it looks like CNE into NNE (especially you guys over NH/ME) get some light snow, then a bunch of sleet, followed by drizzle. The warm layer is right at H85 so the graphics look deceiving. I think that's sleet over a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 BOX's AFD is more buillish than these graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 6z GFS also got ride of Friday afternoon's snow. That's actually when BTV has the highest probs for snow (80%) as the models have been showing another QPF max rotating through with the vorticity in the upper level trough. I still think when that trough and energy moves through we'll at least see an area of organized snow showers on Friday with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 6z GFS is awfully warm and sends the vortmax through NH. lol EC op, EC ens, SREFs, 6z NAM, Ukie, and GGEM are all low end warning criteria for interior NH into ME. When it's GFS against the world I know where my money lies. However, I'd be lying if I said there wasn't concern. 12z ... biggest suite of our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 When it's GFS against the world I know where my money lies. However, I'd be lying if I said there wasn't concern. 12z ... biggest suite of our lives. LOL, I really think you guys further east have a great shot at racking up some quick inches at the very least when it first moves in. The CAD signature is hard to ignore for the climo favored spots from Dendrite and points east/north. Up here we'll be sleeting well before you in this situation...plus you'll have some stronger UVM to fight off the warm push for a bit. It may not be all snow for everyone, but at least its a winter weather event that should affect a decent size geographical area as opposed to 3 people within 5 miles of the Green Mountain spine or something like we've been seeing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I haven't looked at anything yet. Is it a rainer for me? Ice please??? It looks like you start briefly as snow and than some brief ice before a very cold rain. For now, but this could go further north. I wouldn't be excited unless I lived in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well since noone answered I looked for myself and like BOX have come to the conclusion I may get my damaging icestorm ICING MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN WESTERN MA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF N CT WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AS SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It looks like you start briefly as snow and than some brief ice before a very cold rain. For now, but this could go further north. I wouldn't be excited unless I lived in NNE. I guess he didn't see me with the toaster. He was lost in a Calgon moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 BOX and tv mets seem a bit too bullish for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well since noone answered I looked for myself and like BOX have come to the conclusion I may get my damaging icestorm ICING MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN WESTERN MA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF N CT WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AS SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY You are on the edge..any further north and it's a 33 rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 BOX and tv mets seem a bit too bullish for my area You've developed a very pessimistic view of the world. This pattern has clearly gotten to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You've developed a very pessimistic view of the world. This pattern has clearly gotten to you. I think Scooter may have brushed up against him with his "Caution Stick" at the last g2g and gave him a virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Pretty big difference for SNE with the 06z GFS and 00z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You are on the edge..any further north and it's a 33 rain. Stop me if you've heard this one before......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think Scooter may have brushed up against him with his "Caution Stick" at the last g2g and gave him a virus. Hey it's worked well this season. But I did not watch the morning news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You are on the edge..any further north and it's a 33 rain. Probably time to go with the Ukie which kept me all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I could see a decent snow gradient between Will and Socks. The SREFs and Euro really halt the 850 0C line near the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I kind of agree with Will. Probably a couple of inches for him and then some ice for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I see a sleet fest here for a few hours over to 1/4-1/2 inch of ice and maybe it ends as 33 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I see a sleet fest here for a few hours over to 1/4-1/2 inch of ice and maybe it ends as 33 and rain The pattern has gotten to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Somebody as modeled could have decent icing in nrn CT and srn Berks into ORH county. But the risk is that it could still bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Somebody as modeled could have decent icing in nrn CT and srn Berks into ORH county. But the risk is that it could still bump north. Why not south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It doesn't matter. I awoke to a coating of snow otg. Sadly, it's the most snow since before Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Why not south? I think the risk is for the storm to move north. It already did on this run. If this run happened, I think you would have icing after brief snow. But I wouldn't rule out a wiggle south, just don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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