TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That SLP is a disaster.... what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 1990. We went over this a couple years ago...it wasn't 1990...it had to be 1991. I thought it was 1990 also, but it was 1991. There weren't any icing events in Mar 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro is probably like 3-6" N of the pike and W of 495...maybe lower end of that near Ray. Interior hills never go above freezing at the sfc so there is probably some ZR/IP in there in the latter stages of the storm. The QPF isn't overly high. It might be less than 12z qpf. SW ME looks like the best spot on this run. I think that will be the overriding theme with this storm. 3-6" in that area...1-3 SE of 495 tapering to <1" inside 128. SNH-SWME get the lollies of 6"+ That's how I'd forecast this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I like where you are...good latitude and just enough inland. I wouldn't be shocked if you pulled a 3-5"+ It starts off really cold in NE MA...Ray's area is like -4C at 850mb at 12z Thu...but then it warms after that...but if BL is good enough, they could def rip for a good 3-6 hours there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Id feel pretty good if I lived in Northern Worc County or southern New Hampshire but I live on the CT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro is probably like 3-6" N of the pike and W of 495...maybe lower end of that near Ray. Interior hills never go above freezing at the sfc so there is probably some ZR/IP in there in the latter stages of the storm. The QPF isn't overly high. It might be less than 12z qpf. SW ME looks like the best spot on this run. That low track seems like slush to 2" for RAY? No? I think 2 is generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 We went over this a couple years ago...it wasn't 1990...it had to be 1991. I thought it was 1990 also, but it was 1991. There weren't any icing events in Mar 1990. Maybe Feb, then...I know damn well it was 1990 because my sister was very much pregnant with my nephew...I don't need old H5 charts to tell me that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That low track seems like slush to 2" for RAY? No? I think 2 is generous Its not about the sfc low track, although that can be a tipoff sometimes...but in CAD, it doesn't matter as much...it matters how stout the CAD is. 12/16/07 tracked nearly over BOS, yet Ray saw like 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Its not about the sfc low track, although that can be a tipoff sometimes...but in CAD, it doesn't matter as much...it matters how stout the CAD is. 12/16/07 tracked nearly over BOS, yet Ray saw like 10" of snow. We wouldn't be so lucky this go around with such a putrid antecedent airmass. Highs in the low 40s Wed? Not good. Edit: Even the weenie WU snow maps look bad inside 495. Outside looks like a solid hit. I can't say I'm all that disappointed because I've expected this to be a nonevent IMBY for a while. Brief period of optimism at 12z, but realizing it isn't going to work out here. That said, I'm interested to see how this pans out for you interior folks. It's about time somebody in this forum got some decent snow besides PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 We wouldn't be so lucky this go around with such a putrid antecedent airmass. Highs in the low 40s Wed? Not good. It def not gonna be a cakewalk to get a lot of snow in this event...but there should be some on the front end...even in the warmer scenarios. Maybe this torches in the next 36 hours, but I'm pretty confident that places N of the pike will see a period of steady snow in this. Whether it ends up being 2 hours or 8 hours is the question. The antecedent air mass I wish was much better, but we do have some good low dewpoint drainage from Maine thanks to that high north of Vim Toot. So that could def make for some interesting weather for a few hours. My gut that I told to Hubbdave earlier today is probably still what I think now...a couple of inches of snow north of the pike and then transitioning to ice in the elevated interior and a cold rain on the CP...S NH and into SW ME will probably have the best shots at low end warning criteria snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 February 4th 1990? Maybe Feb, then...I know damn well it was 1990 because my sister was very much pregnant with my nephew...I don't need old H5 charts to tell me that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It def not gonna be a cakewalk to get a lot of snow in this event...but there should be some on the front end...even in the warmer scenarios. Maybe this torches in the next 36 hours, but I'm pretty confident that places N of the pike will see a period of steady snow in this. Whether it ends up being 2 hours or 8 hours is the question. The antecedent air mass I wish was much better, but we do have some good low dewpoint drainage from Maine thanks to that high north of Vim Toot. So that could def make for some interesting weather for a few hours. My gut that I told to Hubbdave earlier today is probably still what I think now...a couple of inches of snow north of the pike and then transitioning to ice in the elevated interior and a cold rain on the CP...S NH and into SW ME will probably have the best shots at low end warning criteria snow. Violently agree. The CP will have more chances moving along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe Feb, then...I know damn well it was 1990 because my sister was very much pregnant with my nephew...I don't need old H5 charts to tell me that. Maybe it was late feb? I'll have to check. I swear I remember a huge ice event in the 3rd grade late that winter too, but when I checked March back a couple years ago, it wasn't there. I'm sure there was one that winter though too. I usually remember every event very well and I knew I was in 3rd grade. It was prob Feb 1990. Maybe I'll review March 1990 again...but I will think my analysis a couple years ago was accurate for March 1990...but perhaps I screwed the pooch on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It def not gonna be a cakewalk to get a lot of snow in this event...but there should be some on the front end...even in the warmer scenarios. Maybe this torches in the next 36 hours, but I'm pretty confident that places N of the pike will see a period of steady snow in this. Whether it ends up being 2 hours or 8 hours is the question. The antecedent air mass I wish was much better, but we do have some good low dewpoint drainage from Maine thanks to that high north of Vim Toot. So that could def make for some interesting weather for a few hours. My gut that I told to Hubbdave earlier today is probably still what I think now...a couple of inches of snow north of the pike and then transitioning to ice in the elevated interior and a cold rain on the CP...S NH and into SW ME will probably have the best shots at low end warning criteria snow. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe it was late feb? I'll have to check. I swear I remember a huge ice event in the 3rd grade late that winter too, but when I checked March back a couple years ago, it wasn't there. I'm sure there was one that winter though too. I usually remember every event very well and I knew I was in 3rd grade. It was prob Feb 1990. Maybe I'll review March 1990 again...but I will think my analysis a couple years ago was accurate for March 1990...but perhaps I screwed the pooch on it. No worries....it was prob Feb, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 February 4th 1990? No, that was mostly snow and sleet...esp N of the pike...def not a huge icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 No worries....it was prob Feb, then. There wa s an icing event in March 1991 which is why I thought it was that one when we insisted it was March...but we could have been remembering an event in Feb 1990. I'm not sure you got any ice in the in 1991 event but I know ORH did. The only other big icing event I know for you is Feb 28, 1995...downtown Boston got big icing in that event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I didn't just see the euro trend to **** for Friday's LES event, did I? There was near perfect agreement with the euro and the euro ensemble mean for 96 hours at 12z. What a ****ing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I didn't just see the euro trend to **** for Friday's LES event, did I? There was near perfect agreement with the euro and the euro ensemble mean for 96 hours at 12z. What a ****ing winter. Yeah it looks like toast in BUF on this run...better south of BUF after the primary lake low passes. Jamestown area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah it looks like toast in BUF on this run...better south of BUF after the primary lake low passes. Jamestown area. the upper level low went from Georgian Bay to State College in one run. Maybe it's just a bit of wavering...but idk the way this winter is going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 the upper level low went from Georgian Bay to State College in one run. Maybe it's just a bit of wavering...but idk the way this winter is going... This winter is horrific. I'm hoping we pull out an exciting event on this Thursday thing, but even unobjective thoughts like how bad this winter has been creep into my head all the time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This winter is horrific. I'm hoping we pull out an exciting event on this Thursday thing, but even unobjective thoughts like how bad this winter has been creep into my head all the time now. i was absolutely shocked to see that...the euro has been steadfast for 2 days showing a deep closed low west and northwest of the lakes. the 12z op and ensemble mean were in near perfect agreement. The upper level low just moved 500 miles in a run and weakened considerably. It's wasn't just a matter of shifting the low-level winds a bit. Even favored lake-effect areas wouldn't see a lot in that scenario. The 1000-500mb thicknesses just went from up about 13-15 dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Dunno about ice .... But in general after the bitter December the wx pattern became very hostile after the new year (1990), but unlike this year we still managed to get some decent wet snow events etc. in a bad pattern. Euro looks pretty nice here. Hope it works out, but I still wouldn't be surprised if you have to head to Dendrite country for a plowable snowfall. Oh I just got back from a "moonlight hike" to the 3200' level in the Catskills...strong raw biting wind at that elevation. Barren though with just a few patches of old snow in the woods. Maybe it was late feb? I'll have to check. I swear I remember a huge ice event in the 3rd grade late that winter too, but when I checked March back a couple years ago, it wasn't there. I'm sure there was one that winter though too. I usually remember every event very well and I knew I was in 3rd grade. It was prob Feb 1990. Maybe I'll review March 1990 again...but I will think my analysis a couple years ago was accurate for March 1990...but perhaps I screwed the pooch on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Dunno about ice .... But in general after the bitter December the wx pattern became very hostile after the new year (1990), but unlike this year we still managed to get some decent wet snow events etc. in a bad pattern. Euro looks pretty nice here. Hope it works out, but I still wouldn't be surprised if you have to head to Dendrite country for a plowable snowfall. Feb 1990 was a decent month here for snow..it was fairly warm, but some good snow events. I think we had like 16" or snow that month or something which is a touch above avg...so not bad. My gut def says dendrite to SW ME is the jackpot in this coming storm. But I think icing might be a significant issue in the ORH hills here after some front end snow. We'll have to wait and see. The modeling this winter has been pretty bad, so I have less confidence than usual. Even pattern recognition here is a bit iffy...we have things arguing for a colder solution with the great high location and CAD, but the putrid antecedent air mass before the storm offsets that a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Good thing I put rainx on the windshield 3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 03z SREFs cooled quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Light snow here now. 30F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 03z SREFs cooled quite a bit. Some good news tonight. I still am wary about the Pike and south.... Like down Kev's way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 New SREF probs...really ramped up the 4"+ totals...def looking good for CNE which is likely where the jackpot will be...hoping N of the pike can see some good stuff too though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Right on the line here on most guidance...hoping to rip for a few hours and pull off 2-3"...but I'm not confident. 6z nam came in very cold...looks like mostly snow except for the immediate coast. Back to bed for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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