40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Many a beer for the BCS game... still cant convince me im seeing snow. Probably wait until 18z Wednesday before making a call on whether it's worth a trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 okay, i'm out ... have a good one. Where's the early release of the euro captain vocabulary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Probably wait until 18z Wednesday before making a call on whether it's worth a trip. Dude either way i have no plans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Dude either way i have no plans Can probably pull the Sky Box off, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Here are the GGEM ptype maps...for those that are interested...starting at 09z Thu in 3 hour increments. If you are going to quote this post...delete the images since there will be a few of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Can probably pull the Sky Box off, again. Esp on a weds night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Esp on a weds night Right. Man, that GEM run is ugly....but gotta hold out hope with that pretty high...especially ne areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Right. Man, that GEM run is ugly....but gotta hold out hope with that pretty high...especially ne areas. Meh... at this point were gettin the city of sin tres inch pinch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Off to read in bed....hopefully Will updates on the euro in 45. Night all....hey it beats what we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Off to read in bed....hopefully Will updates on the euro in 45. Night all....hey it beats what we've had. Wow...same lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 We are getting inside of 60 hours...if the Euro goes colder, then its probably time to start getting bullish, but if it goes warmer, then its time to talk about interior icing and Ray can talk about how it never ices there except in March 1991. If Euro holds serve, then I feel like its still a wait and see game...but definitely would be more confident of snowier solutions if it holds serve. The one positive trend that has happened on all guidance is the CAD signal has increased...but we still have to iron out the track of the vortmax which will tell us if it will be snowier or more of a rain/interior icing threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 We are getting inside of 60 hours...if the Euro goes colder, then its probably time to start getting bullish, but if it goes warmer, then its time to talk about interior icing and Ray can talk about how it never ices there except in March 1991. If Euro holds serve, then I feel like its still a wait and see game...but definitely would be more confident of snowier solutions if it holds serve. The one positive trend that has happened on all guidance is the CAD signal has increased...but we still have to iron out the track of the vortmax which will tell us if it will be snowier or more of a rain/interior icing threat. On the record my prediction is warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 How much colder was the 00z UKIE compared to the 12z? Significantly so I believe. I think the EURO holds serve or ticks slightly colder. We'll soon find out. We're due for a break though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Would be nice to squeek in a low-end warning event out of this. SREFs have really come around to it. I'm actually sitting right around normal for the season thanks to Oct and Nov, and a good 6" event will put me above strangely enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Would be nice to squeek in a low-end warning event out of this. SREFs have really come around to it. I'm actually sitting right around normal for the season thanks to Oct and Nov, and a good 6" event will put me above strangely enough. It is starting to look like a warmer version of 12/16/07...colder at 700-750mb, but warmer below that level...since the SW flow aloft isn't as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It is starting to look like a warmer version of 12/16/07...colder at 700-750mb, but warmer below that level...since the SW flow aloft isn't as strong. Doesn't look so good for Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Doesn't look so good for Tolland. He might have a few welts on his scalp by the time we get to 13-14z Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 He kind of has a seductive face for Pete. He even has his arm thrown back with that goofy come hither look. "Hey big boy, gimme some, Petey"... Oh he's gonna get it alright, a toaster plugged into a 20 amp circuit. Snap, crackle, pop goes the Reverend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 He might have a few welts on his scalp by the time we get to 13-14z Thursday morning. And then some cold rain to sooth the burning of those welts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Anything on the Euro? Bueller? Bueller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro is coming in a bit warmer than 12z...still a lot colder than the GFS...but definitely warmer than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Anything on the Euro? Bueller? Bueller? It just initialized on WU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro is a good snow event north of the pike, but it gets mixing/change a solid 25-30 miles further north than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2012011000®ion=USA&var=PRMSLI_msl&hour=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro is a good snow event north of the pike, but it gets mixing/change a solid 25-30 miles further north than 12z. So UKIE cools...EURO warms. I guess we'll all be back here tomorrow looking for some consensus. None tonight. I think SNH is in the sweet spot right now for >4" of snow (may even include ORH) Ray and I are a bit more precarious. I wouldn't forecast anything >1" inside 495 and esp. 128 attm. We'll see. Just for laughs, what types of accums regionwide does the EURO show tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 How much at KRAY will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I dunno, seems to be coming to a concensus to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 We are getting inside of 60 hours...if the Euro goes colder, then its probably time to start getting bullish, but if it goes warmer, then its time to talk about interior icing and Ray can talk about how it never ices there except in March 1991. If Euro holds serve, then I feel like its still a wait and see game...but definitely would be more confident of snowier solutions if it holds serve. The one positive trend that has happened on all guidance is the CAD signal has increased...but we still have to iron out the track of the vortmax which will tell us if it will be snowier or more of a rain/interior icing threat. 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I dunno, seems to be coming to a concensus to me... I like where you are...good latitude and just enough inland. I wouldn't be shocked if you pulled a 3-5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So UKIE cools...EURO warms. I guess we'll all be back here tomorrow looking for some consensus. None tonight. I think SNH is in the sweet spot right now for >4" of snow (may even include ORH) Ray and I are a bit more precarious. I wouldn't forecast anything >1" inside 495 and esp. 128 attm. We'll see. Just for laughs, would types of accums regionwide does the EURO show tonight? Euro is probably like 3-6" N of the pike and W of 495...maybe lower end of that near Ray. Interior hills never go above freezing at the sfc so there is probably some ZR/IP in there in the latter stages of the storm. The QPF isn't overly high. It might be less than 12z qpf. SW ME looks like the best spot on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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