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Thursday's storm ...Rain, wind, snow and ice?


OKpowdah

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We are getting inside of 60 hours...if the Euro goes colder, then its probably time to start getting bullish, but if it goes warmer, then its time to talk about interior icing and Ray can talk about how it never ices there except in March 1991.

If Euro holds serve, then I feel like its still a wait and see game...but definitely would be more confident of snowier solutions if it holds serve. The one positive trend that has happened on all guidance is the CAD signal has increased...but we still have to iron out the track of the vortmax which will tell us if it will be snowier or more of a rain/interior icing threat.

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We are getting inside of 60 hours...if the Euro goes colder, then its probably time to start getting bullish, but if it goes warmer, then its time to talk about interior icing and Ray can talk about how it never ices there except in March 1991.

If Euro holds serve, then I feel like its still a wait and see game...but definitely would be more confident of snowier solutions if it holds serve. The one positive trend that has happened on all guidance is the CAD signal has increased...but we still have to iron out the track of the vortmax which will tell us if it will be snowier or more of a rain/interior icing threat.

On the record my prediction is warmer

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Would be nice to squeek in a low-end warning event out of this. SREFs have really come around to it. I'm actually sitting right around normal for the season thanks to Oct and Nov, and a good 6" event will put me above strangely enough.

It is starting to look like a warmer version of 12/16/07...colder at 700-750mb, but warmer below that level...since the SW flow aloft isn't as strong.

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Euro is a good snow event north of the pike, but it gets mixing/change a solid 25-30 miles further north than 12z.

So UKIE cools...EURO warms. I guess we'll all be back here tomorrow looking for some consensus. None tonight. I think SNH is in the sweet spot right now for >4" of snow (may even include ORH)

Ray and I are a bit more precarious. I wouldn't forecast anything >1" inside 495 and esp. 128 attm. We'll see.

Just for laughs, what types of accums regionwide does the EURO show tonight?

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We are getting inside of 60 hours...if the Euro goes colder, then its probably time to start getting bullish, but if it goes warmer, then its time to talk about interior icing and Ray can talk about how it never ices there except in March 1991.

If Euro holds serve, then I feel like its still a wait and see game...but definitely would be more confident of snowier solutions if it holds serve. The one positive trend that has happened on all guidance is the CAD signal has increased...but we still have to iron out the track of the vortmax which will tell us if it will be snowier or more of a rain/interior icing threat.

1990.

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So UKIE cools...EURO warms. I guess we'll all be back here tomorrow looking for some consensus. None tonight. I think SNH is in the sweet spot right now for >4" of snow (may even include ORH)

Ray and I are a bit more precarious. I wouldn't forecast anything >1" inside 495 and esp. 128 attm. We'll see.

Just for laughs, would types of accums regionwide does the EURO show tonight?

Euro is probably like 3-6" N of the pike and W of 495...maybe lower end of that near Ray. Interior hills never go above freezing at the sfc so there is probably some ZR/IP in there in the latter stages of the storm. The QPF isn't overly high. It might be less than 12z qpf.

SW ME looks like the best spot on this run.

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