Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What a brilliant storm. Didn't Tip call that one in advance? Eh, heh ..ah, not as exact. The way it went down is that the AO at the time ..well, it did what it just did over the last 2 weeks, it came down of a high during a time of incredible NH cryosphere numbers, and it appeared to be interesting because the PNA was also schedule to rise some 2 SD between the 20th and 31st. It was like any others and what was apparent was that 10 day cool snap appeared to have a better then median chance, and with the PNA rising a storm? I merely said or posed the question of seeing snow before the end of October, and also into the first week of November. One would never dream of a record breaker like that, though. I didn't go nearly that far. That I believe is fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Highs like your area, especially if the low tracks se. Now if its closer, you may warm up, but you have several things going for your area right now...right now as in before the rest of the 00z runs come out. I'm not gonna lie...I'm starting to get a sink glint in my eye with all of this talk of a sharp cf.....fetish activated. I know it's not gonna be enhancement like in a big event, but it's still cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It's been a pleasure seeing more of your posts. Thanks.. You probably won't be able to post in mid Atlantic subforum until 2013 then. It was fun posting in that forum over the last few days for their snowfall today. I always enjoy a good DC snowfall, even if I am no where near them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Eh, heh ..ah, not as exact. The way it went down is that the AO at the time ..well, it did what it just did over the last 2 weeks, it came down of a high during a time of incredible NH cryosphere, and it appeared to be interesting because the PNA was also schedule to rise some 2 SD between the 20th and 31st. It was like any others and what was apparent was that 10 day cool snap appeared to have a better then median chance, and with the PNA rising a storm? I merely said or posed the question of seeing snow before the end of October, and also into the first week of November. One would never dream of a record breaker like that, though. I didn't go nearly that far. That I believe is fair. I forgot you started that whole thread!!! Obviously the details were unfathomable, but that was pretty darned good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Is there a swath that he is in, that goes from Bedford or so up through... I dunno, Topsfield? (maybe too close to the ocean) that does well in this type of setup? That whole area does pretty well..especially just inland. The further north you go, the closer you can be at the water since coastal fronts will hug the shoreline more in that area and latitude allows for mid level temps to cool as you go north. The problem with this, is that we sort of have garbage mid levels. We don't have the classic antecedent atmosphere like we did for the storms in 2007 and 2008. Both the surface and mid levels are warmer, so something to think about. However that high will help keep the cold locked in so long as it doesn't track too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Is there a swath that he is in, that goes from Bedford or so up through... I dunno, Topsfield? (maybe too close to the ocean) that does well in this type of setup? Yea, when the cf sets up on rt 128, as it often does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm not gonna lie...I'm starting to get a sink glint in my eye with all of this talk of a sharp cf.....fetish activated. I know it's not gonna be enhancement like in a big event, but it's still cool. I'd hold off for now, but yeah...it's nice to even talk about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I forgot you started that whole thread!!! Obviously the details were unfathomable, but that was pretty darned good! Yeah, I have to agree. Just to mention snow that early is pretty awesome. I know a lot of meteorologists that consistently downplayed the potential all week, even with that little west-based -NAO anomaly staring at them in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I already don't like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'd hold off for now, but yeah...it's nice to even talk about it. Def....still expect mainly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 looks warm! I already don't like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I already don't like this run. NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I already don't like this run. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 looks warm! Low is further west and stronger...already down to 1000mb at 45 versus 1004mb at 51 on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Wed night is fine. Going to be hilarious.... laptops and beers out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Lol, this GFS run is going to be a huge torch...its ridiculously far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah, I have to agree. Just to mention snow that early is pretty awesome. I know a lot of meteorologists that consistently downplayed the potential all week, even with that little west-based -NAO anomaly staring at them in the face. First, watch for a band of thunder with wind potential aoa 60hours out off 12z today... Nice, the teleconnectors are shifting pretty smartly toward a colder stormier appeal between the 20th and the end of the month. Nice PNA jump of 1.5 standard deviations from a local time-scale nadir of -1.5 is a huge recovery that argues for somewhat of a pattern shift away from these plaguing warm anomalous heights over eastern N/A. Granted, the PNA is HUGEMANGUS domain, …but 1.5 rises usually result in some kind of orientation modality. Meanwhile, the NAO is falling in tandem from +1 to nearly -.5SD. These are not overwhelming singular teleconnector signals, but they are more impressive when they occur in tandem that way. I call that “teleconnector convergence” and have for years… Anyway, it’s when you get multiple signals from disparate source regions; in my own evaluation/reanalysis I have found that to be more reliable than using just one or the other teleconnectors alone – and that is kind of a duh moment anyway. We’ll see how it works out… The 00z ECM brought lake effect snows to Michigan and Ohio by D8.5; perhaps leading on this idea and too agressive by a week but interesting nonetheless. About as good as I've seen on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The vortmax is way west...earlier today it was exiting near nc/va shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Dependent on how this evolves. Between 495 & 128 might be a good demarc. (as is now) Either way should be a good nowcast as it unfolds. Anyhow the best is yet to come. Great getting the winter fix back. Addiction is terrible thing to abuse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It's funny how all our fears come true with these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The vortmax is way west...earlier today it was exiting near nc/va shore I mean that is about the most extreme breech in continuity you'll see inside of 3 days on a large scale feature like that. That's not even close to the other guidance we've seen thus far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOL...weenies deflated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What did Kevin lock in for this storm before he went to bed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hence why people weren't too bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 What did Kevin lock in for this storm before he went to bed? Surprisigly he tossed the gfs and said rain to the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah yeah... it's just that it's been written on the wall for about that long - it's been nothing but reasons to rejoice, yet the garbage persist. It's like some spoil pos brat that's going, "No, if i can't have my way right now..." I started feeling good about this on Saturday, mostly because of you and Sam. You were talking about tight balls of vorticity coming up underneath us....that's all it took for me. And just after I hit send...I start reading posts about the GFS. lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Funny thing is that the confluence to our north looks better..lol, but that system we talked about to the west is killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 EC will show a 36F rain most likely. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It's funny how all our fears come true with these things. reinforces the emotion that skews our objectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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