weathafella Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:18 AM, weathafella said: Crazy uncle Ukie is much colder. Actually has it snowing and at a good clip for many of us 60 hours. The low bleeds out under us from CVG out ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:13 AM, Typhoon Tip said: You jerk lol ah man, what can you do - anyway, this type of sudden product discrepancy ... I'd like to get word on the success of the initialization before signing onto that discontinuity aloft ... That was my first thought...initialization error. Who knows? maybe.. But this is a pattern change during a year of mucho model difficulties so maybe the GFS farted (just like my puppy laying next to me....ugghh) I will be driving from Webster to Logan airprt Thursday at 2 pm....should be an interesting drive and I will know intimately how this storm is breaking down from the far interior to the immediate coast. I pass right near Ray on 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:18 AM, weathafella said: Crazy uncle Ukie is much colder. That was nice to see after the GFS came in warmer. Ukie had been one of the warmer models before that. It is pretty much all snow here on the Ukie..probably north of the pike its all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It definitely is colder, especially near Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Obviously the interest is focused on the Thur event ...but, there is a lot of dynamics cleaving down the back side of this L/W at 108 hours ...even some subtle semblance of S/W ridging generating on the lift side of the trough. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sort of looks euro like at 12z Thursday. Hopefully the euro holds serve, would think it will for now..or at least not move too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This run is pretty much about what I expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Is the warmer GFS directly related to the influences of the low (lows) over the Great Lakes and W. Ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:22 AM, CoastalWx said: Sort of looks euro like at 12z Thursday. Hopefully the euro holds serve, would think it will for now..or at least not move too much. Just thinking that, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 3:19 AM, Typhoon Tip said: can someone please change the title of this thread from "...Rain, wind, snow and ice", to "...Snow, ice, some rain S, with wind on the coast, Cape and Islands" ? I feel comfortable with the order of terms in the title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:24 AM, wxwatcher91 said: I feel comfortable with the order of terms in the title You always should have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:20 AM, CoastalWx said: It definitely is colder, especially near Ray. Even with the GFS tracking west...the one theme of the 00z suite is that all guidance thus far has increased the CAD signal even more. GFS has a better CAD signal, but unfortunately it decided to rip that vortmax too far west to really take advantage of it...but to even still get several hours of snow out of that solution shows the power of the CAD. The Ukie totally squashed the mid-level low to the south and keeps it all snow probably near and north of the pike. GFS even squashed the sfc low really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:24 AM, wxwatcher91 said: I feel comfortable with the order of terms in the title Based on a suspect GFS initialization ? :facepalm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:23 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just thinking that, It actually is colder than the euro by 18z and 00z it looks like. Keeps 850 0C line near the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:23 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This run is pretty much about what I expect. I'm starting to wonder if you are not the sole impetus behind this hollow negativity push - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:25 AM, ORH_wxman said: Even with the GFS tracking west...the one theme of the 00z suite is that all guidance thus far has increased the CAD signal even more. GFS has a better CAD signal, but unfortunately it decided to rip that vortmax too far west to really take advantage of it...but to even still get several hours of snow out of that solution shows the power of the CAD. The Ukie totally squashed the mid-level low to the south and keeps it all snow probably near and north of the pike. GFS even squashed the sfc low really good. I think that feature is is a strong one. I mean if the GFS can show it well..you know it's there big time. I kind of like the wind direction in the lower 2000ft or so across your area. CAD and upslope combined to help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:25 AM, ORH_wxman said: Even with the GFS tracking west...the one theme of the 00z suite is that all guidance thus far has increased the CAD signal even more. GFS has a better CAD signal, but unfortunately it decided to rip that vortmax too far west to really take advantage of it...but to even still get several hours of snow out of that solution shows the power of the CAD. The Ukie totally squashed the mid-level low to the south and keeps it all snow probably near and north of the pike. GFS even squashed the sfc low really good. Yeah this is nothing more than typical run-up idiosyncratic solution - people shouldn't be so willing to bite on that GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:26 AM, Typhoon Tip said: I'm starting to wonder if you are not the sole impetus behind this hollow negativity push - haha It's like this....I'm going to assume that we'll get fooked at least excuse imaginable until something bucks that trend. If there is room to be mainly rain, then it will be. I went for it on Dec 23, and got the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:25 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: You always should have. I always did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:28 AM, CoastalWx said: I think that feature is is a strong one. I mean if the GFS can show it well..you know it's there big time. I kind of like the wind direction in the lower 2000ft or so across your area. CAD and upslope combined to help out. Yeah this is a case where the coldest layer of the atmosphere below H75 or so is probably going to be around 900mb or 925mb...if we can hang onto snow, then I think the CAD will really help enhance the precip rates...we saw this in the 12/16/07 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You can see the CAD on 1000mb temps on the Ukie. Nice concave bend of the isotherms into central and ne mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Euro wins this round. I think some losing perspective.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:29 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's like this....I'm going to assume that we'll get fooked at least excuse imaginable until something bucks that trend. If there is room to be mainly rain, then it will be. I went for it on Dec 23, and got the shaft. lmao - I stand corrected! You had me at least excuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:31 AM, CoastalWx said: You can see the CAD on 1000mb temps on the Ukie. Nice concave bend of the isotherms into central and ne mass. I guess that is a reason to not expect the middle finger, this time....but I reserve the right to hold off on biting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm out of the loop, but good luck to those who are in it. At least a good chunk of New England will be blanketed white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 night boyz....see youse in the morning, hopefully in full tracking mode. sleep tight my ball of vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:32 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I guess that is a reason to not expect the middle finger, this time....but I reserve the right to hold off on biting. Yeah good call..at least see what the euro does before expecting it. Luckily your lat and interior location helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:19 AM, mahk_webstah said: That was my first thought...initialization error. Who knows? maybe.. But this is a pattern change during a year of mucho model difficulties so maybe the GFS farted (just like my puppy laying next to me....ugghh) I will be driving from Webster to Logan airprt Thursday at 2 pm....should be an interesting drive and I will know intimately how this storm is breaking down from the far interior to the immediate coast. I pass right near Ray on 93. Where you headed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:34 AM, Typhoon Tip said: Where you headed? my niece is coming up from the Keys to look at New England colleges Amherst and Northhampton on Friday, Boston on Saturday. Staying in Brookline with other family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 On 1/10/2012 at 4:33 AM, CoastalWx said: I'm out of the loop, but good luck to those who are in it. At least a good chunk of New England will be blanketed white. Dude, relax. You're fine. Minus the GFS solution from everything over the last 24 hours and what do you have? An intriguing prospect to reverse the curse here. It's one run, with no support and discontinuous at that Edit, oh, I think you mean you're crashing - HA. cool.. Still, I don't think things are bad for you in this - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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