OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Some great discussion happening with this storm. Now that we're within 72 hours, I figure we should break off into a new thread ... while treading lightly and hope that we don't tempt fate I figure I could squeeze this thread in before the 18z GFS ...though Tip already has the early release Big picture ... not much has changed: Significant trough dropping into the Plains, while a cutoff low sitting over Texas lifts northeast toward New England. Solid summary from Scott in the last thread, so I'll just quote it here: The ensembles are the 00z suite will determine perhaps how this trends. We have some good and bad. Good: 1) stealthy high to the north will help keep the interior cold and create ageostrophic flow 2) Some confluence to our north in the form of a PV lobe. 3) Airmass has some cold punch to it, especially in NNE Bad: 1) Southern stream system which are notorious for coming north due to physical processes at play. 2) No real good blocking 3) Airmass across SNE is rather tepid and amplfying system across the MIdwest is not helping the mid levels. You alter any one of these and borderline areas will have a big difference in outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Looking forward to the first Freudian map of 2012 early release and all (that mean Tip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Looking forward to the first Freudian map of 2012 early release and all (that mean Tip) So, basically by the time us chumps get to see this "early release" map it will already be old news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Woa, have you guys seen the Lead Verification Index ?! Pegged at 9 out of 10 ...never seen it that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 So, basically by the time us chumps get to see this "early release" map it will already be old news? If there was one, It would be the first time i have ever seen one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 925 temps and 850 temps regarding the 0C line are just south of ORH at 18z Thursday. Almost in the same area. Meanwhile 700 temps are like -4C at the same time. So there is going to be a pretty good isothermal layer I think. But, with good high pressure to the north, it will help the lower levels anyways. Probably aggregate city for a time, esp ORH north. I'd like to see 700mb down around -10 where ever the UVM is situated -. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 So, basically by the time us chumps get to see this "early release" map it will already be old news? Kittos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Kittos! Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Will...Any thoughts on the borderline zones down here in N CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 What in the sam hell is this all about from BOX?? THE 12Z GFS TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPING IT SOMEWHAT COOL AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A LOT COLDER BUT FATHER INSIDE THE BENCHMARK. WITH THE COOLER AIR...COULD SEE SNOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This system says sleet to me... I just think there'll be more sleet than snow or freezing rain as far as wintery p-types go. Snow growth looks pretty horrible where snow is a possiblity too. I see Tip touched on this with the H7 temps. Overall this has advisory level snow/sleet at best. I hate seeing winter storm warnings for those 4-7 or 4-8" events... though I bet even jackpot region in this storm is around 6". No closed low and a quick hitter with warm mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 *PTYPE... SEEMS WITH THE COOLER TREND IN THE MODELS...MAIN PTYPE WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. EXPECT SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WHILE RAIN WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORRIDOR. IF THIS COOLING TREND CONTINUES...WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Will...Any thoughts on the borderline zones down here in N CT? Dumbfounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 What in the sam hell is this all about from BOX?? THE 12Z GFS TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPING IT SOMEWHAT COOL AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A LOT COLDER BUT FATHER INSIDE THE BENCHMARK. WITH THE COOLER AIR...COULD SEE SNOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR Well it could start as snow along parts of the corridor. That statement does seem a little contradictory. Maybe they mean the CAD signature for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Will...Any thoughts on the borderline zones down here in N CT? Northern CT should be snow... In fact, you'd get more snow there than the same latitude in eastern MA - The title of this thread is amusing to me. What reads "...Rain, wind, (snow and ice?)" the evidences on the table really argues for '...Snow, wind, (rain and ice?)' But ooOOOoooh, no lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 What in the sam hell is this all about from BOX?? THE 12Z GFS TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPING IT SOMEWHAT COOL AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A LOT COLDER BUT FATHER INSIDE THE BENCHMARK. WITH THE COOLER AIR...COULD SEE SNOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR Snow is only for people north of the Pike, WOTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Dumbfounded. Dude..I would WELCOME a sleet storm right now. I'd WELCOME damaging ice..I'd even welcome a 33 degree rain as long as you got no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Well it could start as snow along parts of the corridor. That statement does seem a little contradictory. Maybe they mean the CAD signature for the interior. I thought it was warmer than 00z? Maybe ice is more of a concern than we initially thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I thought it was warmer than 00z? Maybe ice is more of a concern than we initially thought It was maybe a wee bit warmer at 925-850, but it was pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 Northern CT should be snow... In fact, you'd get more snow there than the same latitude in eastern MA - The title of this thread is amusing to me. What reads "...Rain, wind, (snow and ice?)" the evidences on the table really argues for '...Snow, wind, (rain and ice?)' But ooOOOoooh, no lol Cautionary But I do agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Dude..I would WELCOME a sleet storm right now. I'd WELCOME damaging ice..I'd even welcome a 33 degree rain as long as you got no snow WELCOME WOTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Dumbfounded. These posts are getting old...you've been rotted from the inside out by this winter and now you just think it won't ever snow anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Dude..I would WELCOME a sleet storm right now. I'd WELCOME damaging ice..I'd even welcome a 33 degree rain as long as you got no snow LOL, you guys have to relax with the weenie competition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 These posts are getting old...you've been rotted from the inside out by this winter and now you just think it won't ever snow anywhere. I'm just messn' with Kev. I do any significant snow will be confined to GN and n ORH co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 you guys want snow? Just head down to the Washington DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 18 gfs @ 63hrs looks crappy at the surface for ema.. but just trying to read these maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL, you guys have to relax with the weenie competition. Bring on the GRADIENT. MA pike points n FTW....not so much s, but n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 GFS came north. Looks like it near se LI as an elongated storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Bring on the GRADIENT. MA pike points n FTW....not so much s, but n. more like MA border north for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I know it's way outside of its useful time range but SREFs snow probs came way south. Nice hit for NNE and interior northern SNE. I'm trying to figure out what defines that area...... This looks promising... 1-3" tomorrow and then we'll see what happens late in the week. I think we get mostly shut-out up here (that's fine with me, as long as its not rain)... but I like Dendrite up towards SkierinMaine. A fine place to be. *PTYPE... SEEMS WITH THE COOLER TREND IN THE MODELS...MAIN PTYPE WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. EXPECT SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...WHILE RAIN WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORRIDOR. IF THIS COOLING TREND CONTINUES...WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS. The forecast is not exactly in synch with that AFD for GC. MAZ002-100900- WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 415 PM EST MON JAN 9 2012 . .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 20S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SLEET. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.