LVblizzard Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The models have been gradually trending colder for Wednesday night. Looking at the 12z models so far, they all show at least some snow for the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, with upwards of 2" () possible in mike2010 land. The Euro also showed something similar last night, but not to the extent of this afternoon's GFS and GGEM. Below is the reliable (not being sarcastic) 12z GFS snowfall output from Instant Weather Maps, which usually does a good job at getting accurate snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 9, 2012 Author Share Posted January 9, 2012 This is the GFS ensemble mean for 6z Thursday. At this time, the 850 and 925 0C lines are just north of I-76. The Lehigh Valley and Poconos have about 2-3" of snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 This is the GFS ensemble mean for 6z Thursday. At this time, the 850 and 925 0C lines are just north of I-76. The Lehigh Valley and Poconos have about 2-3" of snow at this point. Good writeup. Maybe the suburbs can cash in on a little front-end, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 The new NAM has this, FYI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro shows similar as well on the last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 0z NAM has a pretty big ice storm for the Poconos. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Definitely a shot that it could briefly start frozen all the way to I-95, per the 0Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 EC is mostly snow (some rain in the latter half of the event) in the Poconos. GFS is snow to rain in the Poconos. 6z NAM is front end sleet to rain in Bucks & Lehigh Valley, freezing rain/sleet/snow for the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So how about further West in the Susq Valley? How is it looking? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 EC is mostly snow (some rain in the latter half of the event) in the Poconos. GFS is snow to rain in the Poconos. 6z NAM is front end sleet to rain in Bucks & Lehigh Valley, freezing rain/sleet/snow for the Poconos. The NAM remains inconsistent overall as guidance in our CWA. This is the same model that cut off last night's precipitation in Virginia, at one time and gave PHL 7" of snow in early December as a 4th period forecast. This upcoming scenario is one in which it should excel, but frankly if the can rgem is not thermally similar, I would have no confidence in its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So how about further West in the Susq Valley? How is it looking? Thanks this is a latitude storm, you need the latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 this is a latitude storm, you need the latitude. Ehhh, depends back there. There are some hints of CAD that could help put some frozen stuff down in AOO/MDT, but not LNS/PHL, before changing over to all rain as the warm front lifts northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ehhh, depends back there. There are some hints of CAD that could help put some frozen stuff down in AOO/MDT, but not LNS/PHL, before changing over to all rain as the warm front lifts northward. i can see aoo, but i would think mdt would be cooked with the storm track close to philly on blah cold air. The real cad is up north and over nne and sne as some weak confluence tries to build in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The NAM remains inconsistent overall as guidance in our CWA. This is the same model that cut off last night's precipitation in Virginia, at one time and gave PHL 7" of snow in early December as a 4th period forecast. This upcoming scenario is one in which it should excel, but frankly if the can rgem is not thermally similar, I would have no confidence in its solution. still trying to pump out an inch in the lehigh valley fri day and more in the pocs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 still trying to pump out an inch in the lehigh valley fri day and more in the pocs.. Could be some nasty travel Friday morning, rain changing to snow before ending and rapidly falling temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z gfs says no frozen anywhere in lv or poconos, but hm says gfs is wrong! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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