bluewave Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Could see a streamer make it down to the coast later on Saturday. The models didn't handle the squalls yesterday very well but today was spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Had a few flurries here in Great Neck as well. Wish the sun would come out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Some spotty flurries...looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 12z ECM was just awful, what else is new... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/f216.gif 500mb height anomalies for the 168-240 hour range continue to increase with the 12z runs as the time frame for the torch enters the medium range. I can't think of how the pattern could possibly get much worse than this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 NYCSuburbs...nice work on your blog...just checked out....man, that 500 looks painful...looks like the same pattern we're in before to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 12z ECM was just awful, what else is new... http://www.meteo.psu....5_12z/f216.gif 500mb height anomalies for the 168-240 hour range continue to increase with the 12z runs as the time frame for the torch enters the medium range. I can't think of how the pattern could possibly get much worse than this: Two primitive ways to make it worse:1) Make the ridge north of Hawaii more anomalous so that the monster trough over the Eastern Pacific propagates eastward a bit more towards the Western US coast. This would induce more big shortwaves to amplify in the Southwest US and induce the -PNA to lower even more in order to flex the SE ridge to hell.2) Get rid of the warming that is portrayed in the Arctic Circle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The 240 hour EC shows you just about the worst possible pattern at any point from Nov-Mar. You have massive lows in the GOA and by Greenland, so basically you're flooding W Canada with warm air and have no way to get any cold air into the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The 12z GEFS and ECMWF Ensembles show 850mb temps 12-14C above normal over us by next Sunday/Monday. We could see mid-60s, with that kind of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 The NAEFS Week 2 forecast is in agreement with a 90% probability of above normal temperatures in our general area. Not a terribly bold forecasting considering what we're seeing on guidance, but still ominous nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 We could see unprecedented, historic warmth if that verifies. These types of patterns only trend warm as we get closer, I didn't believe it yesterday but saying temps as high as the low 70s is not a stretch at the end of the upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The 12z GEFS and ECMWF Ensembles show 850mb temps 12-14C above normal over us by next Sunday/Monday. We could see mid-60s, with that kind of warmth. I agree, mid 60s are very possible with this... even with that one 60+ degree torch day we had there wasn't a signal for warmth as strong as the one showing up for the medium range. While going with 70 degrees is definitely extreme for this time of the year, which happened back in Jan 07 when 850mb temps surged to above 10C, should we see this type of set up in the warmer case scenario, mid to possibly upper 60s could be reasonable for highs IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 70 is doable with +12 850s on a sw wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 70 is doable with +12 850s on a sw wind. Same conditions as observed on January 6, 2007... from where the models are now it wouldn't take much to make this a near 70 degree torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 70 is doable with +12 850s on a sw wind. Are we talking 850mb temps or anomalies? -5C is around normal. 12-14C 850 anomalies will give us 7-9C 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 im talking actual 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Looks like some decent returns over Jersey. Spc had this forming for this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Decent snow band heading towards the area http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?location=USCT0094&weather=hdRadarSmoothPaletteA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Decent snow band heading towards the area http://www.intellica...rSmoothPaletteA It's staying a bit too far south for most though, aiming Staten Island into Brooklyn. There's still widespread snow showers elsewhere, it's about time that we finally have a light snow event targeting the NYC area and not Washington DC or Boston... It will be interesting to find out if by the end of the day there's any accumulation along I-80 and especially where this band ends up, even if it's just a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 It's staying a bit too far south for most though, aiming Staten Island into Brooklyn. There's still widespread snow showers elsewhere, it's about time that we finally have a light snow event targeting the NYC area and not Washington DC or Boston... Finally, we have the snow flurries making it into the forecast. NYZ072-151030- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- 658 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012 .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS EVENING... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Hopefully headed my way as well in extreme SW Nassau aka so least snow capital of the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Light dusting here with light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 Light snow here, dusting on all surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Light snow here, dusting on all surfaces. Mt. earthlight scores again... You'll probably break the bank looking at the returns. Its thread the needle for me right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 It looks like that band that's hitting Earthlight is going to miss the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Very light snow falling here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Had a nice burst of snow in Astoria that actually dusted car tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Getting some light flurries right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 Terrific forecast by the SPF WRF yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Light snow falling right now =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Light snow falling right now =) A pleasant surprise. Again shows the complexity and challenge of forecasting the weather even in the shortest of ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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