Ericjcrash Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I tell ya, watching this vort coming in on the NAM, it continues to tend stronger and to dig further south. If it keeps this up, its going to pop something on the strong thermal gradient off the coast. Gotta watch that. The H5 differences between 12 and 18z are rather large. It's digging a lot more, rising heights on the coast. I wouldn't be shocked if the DGEX blows it up at 18z for a weenie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The H5 differences between 12 and 18z are rather large. It's digging a lot more, rising heights on the coast. I wouldn't be shocked if the DGEX blows it up at 18z for a weenie solution. No, I am talking about the vort between 30 and 50 hours, not the clipper wave that crapped the bed already. Problem is the lack of confluence to the norther and the lack of ridging out west really prevent this from digging much more so its probably a lost cause, more of an observation than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 No, I am talking about the vort between 30 and 50 hours, not the clipper wave that crapped the bed already. Problem is the lack of confluence to the norther and the lack of ridging out west really prevent this from digging much more so its probably a lost cause, more of an observation than anything else. Ok, but I'm talking about the clipper Sunday. large differences between runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks like parts of Jersey started with sleet as precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks like parts of Jersey started with sleet as precip. 00 UTC January 12th, 2012 KOKX sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks like parts of Jersey started with sleet as precip. yes was all sleet here at the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 all rain here, nothing even interesting to report. we can sometimes start with a few minutes of sleet in these events. not this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 all rain here, nothing even interesting to report. we can sometimes used start with a few minutes of sleet in these events. not this time year. FIXED* What a waste of a ridge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looking more and more like the rain we will see on Tuesday will be heavy at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It started as rain at Binghampton 11 19:53 SE 12 10.00 Light Rain OVC042 1600 feet as well as Albany. 12 00:51 SE 7 G 17 10.00 Light Rain BKN024 BKN036 OVC060 37 So it makes it hard to believe anyone in Jers experienced snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I just hope that pattern doesnt flip and that spring will be cool and damp until like may. That would be HUGE slap in the face after this debacle of a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 And that's pretty much a wrap on this rain storm. Next up is rain before the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Don Sutherland fwiw cancelled February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It started as rain at Binghampton 11 19:53 SE 12 10.00 Light Rain OVC042 1600 feet as well as Albany. 12 00:51 SE 7 G 17 10.00 Light Rain BKN024 BKN036 OVC060 37 So it makes it hard to believe anyone in Jers experienced snow! There were a couple of reports of snow mixing in near/along the Kittatinnys once the precipitation intensity increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 There were a couple of reports of snow mixing in near/along the Kittatinnys once the precipitation intensity increased. Im on the east side slope of the Shawangunk Ridge which is pretty much an extension of the Kittatinnys and areas above 1100' had around 2".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Strong torch signal, post Jan. 20th on all the ensemble guidance this morning. The -WPO/EPO/AO retrogrades back into Central Sibera and North Atlantic Ridge gradually expand west into the Eastern US. This is just the 6z GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Im on the east side slope of the Shawangunk Ridge which is pretty much an extension of the Kittatinnys and areas above 1100' had around 2".. Yeah there was a window of opportunity it looked like off the forecast soundings with enough dry air around to evap & dynamically cool the sounding to snow for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Strong torch signal, post Jan. 20th on all the ensemble guidance this morning. The -WPO/EPO/AO retrogrades back into Central Sibera and North Atlantic Ridge gradually expand west into the Eastern US. This is just the 6z GEFS: Good. Let it torch if we can't even get one flake of snow. Maybe we can go for the futility record in Feb/Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Don Sutherland fwiw cancelled February. Are you basing that on his post in the Medium Range discussion? If so, I wish you'd try to paraphrase more accurately. Don is very careful is his posting to not make such broad, definitive statements such as what you're crediting to him. If you read his comment he says IF nothing changes the stage COULD be set for a warm Feb. That doesnt equate to what you posted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It would also seem unlikely that it would be warm the entire month. And the heart of February is still over a month away so I'm sure he wouldn't make that announcement. Either way it belongs in banter as does anything from someone who is not doing the posting themselves. Are you basing that on his post in the Medium Range discussion? If so, I wish you'd try to paraphrase more accurately. Don is very careful is his posting to not make such broad, definitive statements such as what you're crediting to him. If you read his comment he says IF nothing changes the stage COULD be set for a warm Feb. That doesnt equate to what you posted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It would also seem unlikely that it would be warm the entire month. And the heart of February is still over a month away so I'm sure he wouldn't make that announcement. Either way it belongs in banter as does anything from someone who is not doing the posting themselves. Agreed. I think that if we all wanted to hear what JB, DT, DS, ABCDEFG had to say about the patterns, etc, we would go their sites or view their posts...i for one am sick of hearing their useless bull**** that is constantly wrong. How many times is JB going to change his forecast. Its a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Agreed. I think that if we all wanted to hear what JB, DT, DS, ABCDEFG had to say about the patterns, etc, we would go their sites or view their posts...i for one am sick of hearing their useless bull**** that is constantly wrong. How many times is JB going to change his forecast. Its a joke. Strongly agree-either this pattern has them completely fooled or they are just trying to bring traffic to their respective websites. on topic, some pretty good winds buffeting me right now as the rain has lifted out. Breaks of sun too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 As I mentioned yesterday most of them are just looking for bragging rights to be able to say they sniffed out the pattern change first. But it's gotten ridiculous how their thoughts change on a daily, almost model run to model run basis. I'd sooner trust whether or not my grandmother's elbow is acting up as a better indicator. Agreed. I think that if we all wanted to hear what JB, DT, DS, ABCDEFG had to say about the patterns, etc, we would go their sites or view their posts...i for one am sick of hearing their useless bull**** that is constantly wrong. How many times is JB going to change his forecast. Its a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Agreed. I think that if we all wanted to hear what JB, DT, DS, ABCDEFG had to say about the patterns, etc, we would go their sites or view their posts...i for one am sick of hearing their useless bull**** that is constantly wrong. How many times is JB going to change his forecast. Its a joke. Not to mention accuweather calling for blizzard conditions in Chicago...what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Not to mention accuweather calling for blizzard conditions in Chicago...what a joke With 30+ gust tonight, there can be some blizzard like conditions although momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Could see a streamer make it down to the coast later on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Could see a streamer make it down to the coast later on Saturday. staten Island jackpot, Doubt they make it over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 staten Island jackpot, Doubt they make it over the mountains. keep your fingers crossed. The 4km NAM nailed the snow shower that I got here last week a few days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Noticeable differences with the GFS and ECM in the medium-long range - the ECM takes the ridging over Greenland and to the other side of the globe, closer to Russia, while on the GFS there's almost no ridging to be found. Regardless of these differences, there's no real blowtorch at least in the medium range, but at the same time there's still little snow to be found. Unbelievable that we've gone through so many storms since early December yet not even a single one had a set up that was even partially favorable for snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Lol, snow shower. This winter is a joke, we'll see but just having that one streamer reach right around here is like rolling 3 dice expecting to see 6's on all of them. Well, it's the best that we can do this winter. No matter what happens, I have at least a trace here for the month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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