Rjay Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I remember someone talking about quick 1-2 day cold shots followed by a return of normal to above normal temps. I see the 0z gfs lost our tropical threat in the long range...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Why is Upton being bullish for any type of snow for NYC on Thursday night, Saturday and Tuesday? Read their AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The H5 energy is pretty potent on the 12z NAM for the clipper. GFS is the only model that has the clipper with any juice but it now appears the NAM would have followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The H5 energy is pretty potent on the 12z NAM for the clipper. GFS is the only model that has the clipper with any juice but it now appears the NAM would have followed. Just saw that. Fits the trend of these vorts coming in stronger. Happy this one is not a southern stream system and that we have fresh cold for it. Let's see if we can buck the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just saw that. Fits the trend of these vorts coming in stronger. Happy this one is not a southern stream system and that we have fresh cold for it. Let's see if we can buck the seasonal trend. This will be the 1st one we actually have some cold around for also. Even .15" of precip will leave us all happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This will be the 1st one we actually have some cold around for also. Even .15" of precip will leave us all happy. I dont let weather affect my happiness, so can't speak to that, but in terms of seeing flakes, it will sure lighten the mood around this board. Pretty soon Allsnow is going to drive over metfan with his plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I dont let weather affect my happiness, so can't speak to that, but in terms of seeing flakes, it will sure lighten the mood around this board. Pretty soon Allsnow is going to drive over metfan with his plow. Lol...ag3 better book me now for Sundays clipper....how much qpf did 06z gfs have for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lol...ag3 better book me now for Sundays clipper....how much qpf did 06z gfs have for Sunday About .15"-.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Lol...ag3 better book me now for Sundays clipper....how much qpf did 06z gfs have for Sunday .20 to .25 with the .25 for eastern LI. Dont put any stock in it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 About .15" its slightly more, eastern LI does close to .25 IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 .20 to .25 with the .25 for eastern LI. Dont put any stock in it right now. nope-it will find away to either not happen at all or warm up and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 its slightly more, eastern LI does close to .25 IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 nope-it will find away to either not happen at all or warm up and rain I dont disagree with you that what is past is prologue this winter, but this isn't a southern stream vort like every other event. This is a northern stream clipper digging into an existing trough with fresh cold air. Just make sure you put some science behind it and just don't say it won't happen, at least not in this thread. Banter away all you want in the other one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 hmmm, looks diff. on SV, oh well, it doesnt matter, its an eternity away, we should focus on 500mb right now, not qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 hmmm, looks diff. on SV, oh well, it doesnt matter, its an eternity away, we should focus on 500mb right now, not qpf Agreed. 500mb is much more important in this range then what surface shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The H5 energy is pretty potent on the 12z NAM for the clipper. GFS is the only model that has the clipper with any juice but it now appears the NAM would have followed. It's unfortunate there's a dearth of blocking downstream b/c the H5 vort max track on the GFS is quite conducive for our area. The sfc low would undergo rapid intensification off the VA capes, but given the progressive flow, it would only be able to throw back light pcpn while the rest is over the fishes. This particular short wave seems to be trending more potent on latest modelling, so it's definitely something to monitor given it won't be sampled well for another 48 hours anyway. If we can get an energetic enough vort, it's possible we can pump heights ahead of it and try to bomb a low closer in to the coast. If there were north atlantic blocking or even a 50-50 low, I'd probably be saying big time snow threat for SNE with decent probs back through NYC at this point. But since we don't, we're entirely reliant on the short wave itself garnering suffient energy to slow itself down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's unfortunate there's a dearth of blocking downstream b/c the H5 vort max track on the GFS is quite conducive for our area. The sfc low would undergo rapid intensification off the VA capes, but given the progressive flow, it would only be able to throw back light pcpn while the rest is over the fishes. This particular short wave seems to be trending more potent on latest modelling, so it's definitely something to monitor given it won't be sampled well for another 48 hours anyway. If we can get an energetic enough vort, it's possible we can pump heights ahead of it and try to bomb a low closer in to the coast. If there were north atlantic blocking or even a 50-50 low, I'd probably be saying big time snow threat for SNE with decent probs back through NYC at this point. But since we don't, we're entirely reliant on the short wave itself garnering suffient energy to slow itself down. agree 100%. Getting the trough to re-amplify after the storm ahead of it will be difficult, but not impossible. Expectations for this storm should be no more than a fluffy 1-3 inches, which in this winter, is an historic storm, lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Agreed. 500mb is much more important in this range then what surface shows. We have a good amount of time before it's here. Hopefully that will allow this thing to show up more juicy as time goes by. But even as is I will be very grateful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 that setup in Western NY on the 12z gfs looks very similar to a storm I saw at Cornell went from rain to heavy snow that shut the town down for a day. Shut down Rochester too IIRC. Trying to place the month and year, I believe it was 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 and poof on the gfs. Vort is weak and trough is deamplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 and poof on the gfs. Vort is weak and trough is deamplified. Vort handling, looks similar to the 0z Euro last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well.. at least the Euro looks fairly cold.. if we wanna look for some positives.. I know there's not much of that.. The AO, NAO is really killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well.. at least the Euro looks fairly cold.. if we wanna look for some positives.. I know there's not much of that.. The AO, NAO is really killing us. Has been the case since Irene came through.sme old story..same pattern closing in on 5 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Well.. at least the Euro looks fairly cold.. if we wanna look for some positives.. I know there's not much of that.. The AO, NAO is really killing us. Its the La Nina more than anything IMO. There just is not enough southern stream action, whenever we get any sort of high crossing our area or north nothing wants to eject out of the TN Valley or Southern US area and run into the high, everything that wants to form is in the northern stream. The setup from 120-150 hours with the 1040mb high over the NE is fine if something formed in LA/TX and moved NE in a SW flow, the problem is the system that does form develops over S Canada and the Lakes, hence we get a raging SSW flow at the surface and rain and then back into the cold and dry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Its the La Nina more than anything IMO. There just is not enough southern stream action, whenever we get any sort of high crossing our area or north nothing wants to eject out of the TN Valley or Southern US area and run into the high, everything that wants to form is in the northern stream. The setup from 120-150 hours with the 1040mb high over the NE is fine if something formed in LA/TX and moved NE in a SW flow, the problem is the system that does form develops over S Canada and the Lakes, hence we get a raging SSW flow at the surface and rain and then back into the cold and dry again. yep.. and the long range Euro shows no sign of hope... it's got a raging zonal flow off the Pacific through the northern tier with a highly gradient pattern.. Until we get a significant amplification and buckling of the pattern.. and not just a long-wave trof, but something with concentrated energy, we'll never be able to form a good storm system down at that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I will trade one historic once in a decade or so type storm that we had up here on Halloween in exchange for a dry few months every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 that setup in Western NY on the 12z gfs looks very similar to a storm I saw at Cornell went from rain to heavy snow that shut the town down for a day. Shut down Rochester too IIRC. Trying to place the month and year, I believe it was 1999. I believe it was March of 1999... From what I remember there was about 1 inch in Buffalo and the amounts increased substantially as you went EAST on the thurway.. Rochester got 20"+ I believe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I believe it was March of 1999... From what I remember there was about 1 inch in Buffalo and the amounts increased substantially as you went EAST on the thurway.. Rochester got 20"+ I believe.. I clearly remember that event, this is a pretty classic backlash event for a region that otherwise does not do too well synoptically and relies more on lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I believe it was March of 1999... From what I remember there was about 1 inch in Buffalo and the amounts increased substantially as you went EAST on the thurway.. Rochester got 20"+ I believe.. I clearly remember that event, this is a pretty classic backlash event for a region that otherwise does not do too well synoptically and relies more on lake effect. What a storm. Pouring rain and thunderstorms then flash freeze and pouring dendrites. It takes a lot to shut down these towns, and that one with the rapid freeze and heavy snow did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I tell ya, watching this vort coming in on the NAM, it continues to tend stronger and to dig further south. If it keeps this up, its going to pop something on the strong thermal gradient off the coast. Gotta watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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