IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 just what we need. Do you have the QPF map? Keep in mind this includes the weak event for Friday as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Keep in mind this includes the weak event for Friday as well The Catskills look to really rack up this week.. That Friday event might be interesting as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I really think this event bears watching for interior sections. Taking a look at the Upton forecast graphics they keep frozen/freezing precip until around 10AM-12PM on Thursday for the interior. The main threat is 0.5-2" of snow followed by 0.10"+ of ice solid Winter Weather Advisory Event. At 1AM they have heavy snow over the interior Then at 4AM areas NW of Rt.23 are into the ZR Even at 1PM there is still pockets of light ZR Total Ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I really think this event bears watching for interior sections. Taking a look at the Upton forecast graphics they keep frozen/freezing precip until around 10AM-12PM on Thursday for the interior. The main threat is 0.5-2" of snow followed by 0.10"+ of ice solid Winter Weather Advisory Event. At 1AM they have heavy snow over the interior Then at 4AM areas NW of Rt.23 are into the ZR Even at 1PM there is still pockets of light ZR Total Ice I think 1-3" is a good possibility up this way with a IP/ZR fest to follow. According to the NAM the temps never get above freezing from 900mb down to the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think 1-3" is a good possibility up this way with a IP/ZR fest to follow. According to the NAM the temps never get above freezing from 900mb down to the surface.. This would be for the higher elevations in the Catskills and the mid & upper Hudson Valley and points north/east. Actually, some areas of central and northern New England could get 6-12" of snow IMO. But down here, it's solidly a rain event with temps in the 40s or perhaps lower 50s depending on the exact track of the low. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The Catskills look to really rack up this week.. That Friday event might be interesting as well.. I think NAM is way overdoing the "Friday event" which will probably be more on the order of showers or wet snow showers in some spots. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This would be for the higher elevations in the Catskills and the mid & upper Hudson Valley and points north/east. Actually, some areas of central and northern New England could get 6-12" of snow IMO. But down here, it's solidly a rain event with temps in the 40s or perhaps lower 50s depending on the exact track of the low. WX/PT That statement was based off the NAM and for areas of the mid hudson valley. Was not meant for areas "down here" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12z RGEM is also very wet now. Looks like 1.50"-1.75" for NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That statement was based off the NAM and for areas of the mid hudson valley. Was not meant for areas "down here" Here is today's 06z NAM for KSWF. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kswf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Here is today's 06z NAM for KSWF. http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=kswf http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Kmgj.txt Mostly IP/ZR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 12Z RGEM Total Snow 12Z RGEM Total Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Slight chance for a record high on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18z NAM contunues to get wetter for the Thursday storm. Now has 1.75" bullseye of rain for NYC and the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18z NAM contunues to get wetter for the Thursday storm. Now has 1.75" bullseye of rain for NYC and the area. Damn it. too early to be in the jackpot range...just need to hope the models dont change too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18Z Thursday temperatures. [18Z RGEM] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is sobering http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ agree 100 % - many people have been speculating about the so called "pattern change" - but La Nina is still with us AO NAO PNA SOI aren't cooperating and no signs of change - for instance the SOI was neg 16 then neg 7 and then neg 1.69 heading positive again - the NAO always looks like it is heading negative but has been consistently positive - the PNA is going negative again and the AO was briefly slightly negative but is heading positive again - more of the same pattern - no change in sight .........models past 5 days are also inaccurate they can't handle this current pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 18z NAM contunues to get wetter for the Thursday storm. Now has 1.75" bullseye of rain for NYC and the area. 18z still paints a wintry scene for us in the far NW.. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Kmgj.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Upton becoming more bullish about tomorrow nights event for Orange County.. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow before 10pm, then snow and sleet likely between 10pm and 1am, then sleet after 1am. Low around 30. East wind between 6 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 well, we have one ensemble member, more than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The latest models have definitely been showing some changes with the pattern, as can easily be noticed by the building of ridging near western Alaska and a much larger and stronger source of cold air over Canada; 850mb temps below -20 C cover almost all of Canada on the 12z ECM at hour 216, something we have not seen this winter at all: As can be noticed by the image above, however, little ridging can be found near Alaska; there is a consensus to develop a ridge near Alaska this weekend peaking around ~144 hours, but it is unable to stay in place, and by hours 192-240 is replaced by lower heights on every single model run today. The longer range of the GFS, for the little it's worth, also backed down from the strong cold and snow pattern it developed over the last few days, and except for its 6z run, the rest of its runs today brought the pattern back to where it is now, if not even worse as clearly evident on the 18z GFS which almost resembles the pattern in early-mid October far more than a typical late January pattern. There are undoubtedly some changes taking place in the medium range, but the pattern isn't able to completely flip instantly as many of the signs we'd be looking for, such as more frequent ridging near Greenland and Alaska, are clearly missing. While I can see how we get some improvements and possibly (hopefully) our first snow chance towards the medium-long range, in my opinion chances for a large scale pattern flip through the end of the month are low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denverweather Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This is sobering http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ agree 100 % - many people have been speculating about the so called "pattern change" - but La Nina is still with us AO NAO PNA SOI aren't cooperating and no signs of change - for instance the SOI was neg 16 then neg 7 and then neg 1.69 heading positive again - the NAO always looks like it is heading negative but has been consistently positive - the PNA is going negative again and the AO was briefly slightly negative but is heading positive again - more of the same pattern - no change in sight .........models past 5 days are also inaccurate they can't handle this current pattern.... interesting how no one responds to you... besides this one time occurring event from myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I don't care if anyone responds too me - the thing that really aggravates me is the bastardi's, henry's, steve D's who all rely on people visiting their pay sites so they keep spreading rumors and predictions of snow storms - big pattern changes that have very little chance of verifying just like their winter outlooks..lets face it long range predictions are just wild guesses for the most part and are usually not accurate --..at least on this page for the most part folks are not doing the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I don't care if anyone responds too me - the thing that really aggravates me is the bastardi's, henry's, steve D's who all rely on people visiting their pay sites so they keep spreading rumors and predictions of snow storms - big pattern changes that have very little chance of verifying just like their winter outlooks..lets face it long range predictions are just wild guesses for the most part and are usually not accurate --..at least on this page for the most part folks are not doing the same... You can't predict snowstorms ten days in advance, you just can't. Rainstorms -- maybe once in a blue moon as a 200 mile wide rain shield allows you some error. What you can predict is overall temperature and precipitation trend -- relative to normal via the use of teleconnection patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Did anyone see the last few frames of the 18z gfs ? lol http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/18zgfs_namer_pcp.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Did anyone see the last few frames of the 18z gfs ? lol http://www.cnrfc.noa...s_namer_pcp.php GFS is in la la land with what looks to be a tropical type system off the east coast - also the la nina pattern on the GFS is stil going strong no blocking - progressive pattern -BUT every run has shown something different after 72 - 120 hours ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 tropics looks better today on the 18z gfs than they did all summer, lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If you look at 06z which showed bitter cold and a great pattern the whole run, then the flop to horrible at 12z you can see the gfs obviously has no clue whats going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 don't know if this was posted, but this is from the Mt Holly Facebook page... While some colder weather is on its way over the next week or so, the duration of the cold snaps appears smaller again and overall not as cold. While the latter can not be attributed to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the former can. From the first chart below we can see that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been positive this entire winter so far. Not only that, but as the day 7, day 10 and day 14 forecast charts show, the actual value of the NAO has verified closer to the highest level of the ensemble members of the GFS. What this means is that the GFS model has been outlooking a weaker than actual NAO. As long as this trend continues and the overall NAO outlook remains positive, while cold shots of air will be arriving, they will be able to make a hasty exit off the Atlantic Seaboard." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 don't know if this was posted, but this is from the Mt Holly Facebook page... While some colder weather is on its way over the next week or so, the duration of the cold snaps appears smaller again and overall not as cold. While the latter can not be attributed to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the former can. From the first chart below we can see that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been positive this entire winter so far. Not only that, but as the day 7, day 10 and day 14 forecast charts show, the actual value of the NAO has verified closer to the highest level of the ensemble members of the GFS. What this means is that the GFS model has been outlooking a weaker than actual NAO. As long as this trend continues and the overall NAO outlook remains positive, while cold shots of air will be arriving, they will be able to make a hasty exit off the Atlantic Seaboard." I remember someone talking about quick 1-2 day cold shots followed by a return of normal to above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The latest models have definitely been showing some changes with the pattern, as can easily be noticed by the building of ridging near western Alaska and a much larger and stronger source of cold air over Canada; 850mb temps below -20 C cover almost all of Canada on the 12z ECM at hour 216, something we have not seen this winter at all: As can be noticed by the image above, however, little ridging can be found near Alaska; there is a consensus to develop a ridge near Alaska this weekend peaking around ~144 hours, but it is unable to stay in place, and by hours 192-240 is replaced by lower heights on every single model run today. The longer range of the GFS, for the little it's worth, also backed down from the strong cold and snow pattern it developed over the last few days, and except for its 6z run, the rest of its runs today brought the pattern back to where it is now, if not even worse as clearly evident on the 18z GFS which almost resembles the pattern in early-mid October far more than a typical late January pattern. There are undoubtedly some changes taking place in the medium range, but the pattern isn't able to completely flip instantly as many of the signs we'd be looking for, such as more frequent ridging near Greenland and Alaska, are clearly missing. While I can see how we get some improvements and possibly (hopefully) our first snow chance towards the medium-long range, in my opinion chances for a large scale pattern flip through the end of the month are low. The blocking is going to develop in completely the wrong place for us and just about the opposite of last winter. It's going to matter little to us that the block is going to develop over the Bering Sea and then head north toward Siberia. Sure it will make Canada cold, but the NAO will still be way positive with low heights over Greenland and NE Canada. That means we're stuck in the same lame pattern where the SE Ridge can amplify all day when a storm begins to amplify. Nothing at all to stop it from cutting way west and demolishing us with a torch. What it will do though is make it more miserable for us behind these lows with colder dry air behind them. It's possible that we can have an overrunning setup and wintry weather on a gradient pattern but again the margin of error is very thin. Far more often those patterns favor New England and leave us barely hanging on or with cold rain while we see Boston and Worcester rake it in. With a +NAO our odds grow even longer. I'm just not excited about this upcoming pattern with a stiff Nina that will keep trying to throw warm air at us whenever possible. It was definitely no coincedence that last winter was a blockbuster with the blocking in place. More than likely, without that block last year would have been horrendous, and we're seeing that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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